Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
UMC guides for 2Q25 rebound, expecting 5–7% QoQ wafer shipment growth and margin recovery to ~30%, though 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> 12nm project progressing; Initial client orders planned for 2026E, with management leaving the door open to future partnerships—including rumored <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a> collaboration—amid strategic diversification efforts.</li>
<li>
Tariff-Driven pull-forward of orders IS happening but impact reportedly limited so far, with UMC noting mixed customer behavior; near-term demand strength appears broad-based. We have a Neutral rating for UMC.</li>
</ul>



UMC guides for 2Q25 rebound, expecting 5–7% QoQ wafer shipment growth and margin recovery to ~30%, though 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

Intel Corp (INTC US) 12nm project progressing; Initial client orders planned for 2026E, with management leaving the door open to future partnerships—including rumored GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) collaboration—amid strategic diversification efforts.

Tariff-Driven pull-forward of orders IS happening but impact reportedly limited so far, with UMC noting mixed customer behavior; near-term demand strength appears broad-based. We have a Neutral rating for UMC.


UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q miss on non-ops and it’s the bottom for margins. Strong 2Q guidance but very low visibility into 2H: tariff uncertainty.  </li>
<li>The JV with Intel for 12nm is proceeding well and demand is strong for Made in US 12nm. Some upside here for 2027</li>
<li>Consensus is probably a tad too low but the stock trading at average PEx ~12x. No arbitrage here.</li>
</ul>


1Q miss on non-ops and it’s the bottom for margins. Strong 2Q guidance but very low visibility into 2H: tariff uncertainty.  
The JV with Intel for 12nm is proceeding well and demand is strong for Made in US 12nm. Some upside here for 2027
Consensus is probably a tad too low but the stock trading at average PEx ~12x. No arbitrage here.


UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>2Q25 guidance: Wafer shipments: increase 5~7%, ASP in USD: flat, GM: About 30%.</li>
<li>The US tariffs affect customer outcome visibility in 2Q25 and 2H25 is limited. </li>
<li>UMC is seeking a strategic plan to enhance shareholder value, and there is no ongoing merger plan at the moment, which implies no merger plan with GF. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 guidance: Wafer shipments: increase 5~7%, ASP in USD: flat, GM: About 30%.
The US tariffs affect customer outcome visibility in 2Q25 and 2H25 is limited. 
UMC is seeking a strategic plan to enhance shareholder value, and there is no ongoing merger plan at the moment, which implies no merger plan with GF. 


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

<ul>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a> saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  </li>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a>'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a>, which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  </li>
<li>If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  </li>
</ul>


Both United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) and GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US) saw positive reactions in their stocks following a possible merger news, despite the current instability in the stock markets.  
Although GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)'s technology is held above 7nm, it is ahead of United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US), which is still certain generations above China’s current technology in general.  
If these two companies wish to merge, there are still some subjective factors that need to be considered, and it will not be easy to get approval.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

<ul>
<li>The 1Q25 outlook is slightly affected by earthquakes, but production can resume in late 1Q25.</li>
<li>The UMC 12nm project could be in vain if Intel collaborates with TSMC or if TSMC takes over Intel's foundry service.   </li>
<li>UMC's annual revenue could see a -5% year-over-year growth in 2025, but there may be a few percentages increase in wafer shipments.  </li>
</ul>


The 1Q25 outlook is slightly affected by earthquakes, but production can resume in late 1Q25.
The UMC 12nm project could be in vain if Intel collaborates with TSMC or if TSMC takes over Intel's foundry service.   
UMC's annual revenue could see a -5% year-over-year growth in 2025, but there may be a few percentages increase in wafer shipments.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

UMC expects 2Q25 rebound with wafer shipment growth and margin recovery, but 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations

UMC: 1Q miss, strong 2Q guidance but low visibility into 2H. JV with Intel for 12nm progressing well with strong demand for 2027. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

UMC's 2Q25 guidance shows increased wafer shipments and flat ASP, with limited visibility due to US tariffs. Strategic plan in place to enhance...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

Patrick Liao

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UMC Sees Broad Rebound in Demand Ahead But Is Demand Being Pulled Forward by Tariffs?

​UMC expects 2Q25 rebound with wafer shipment growth and margin recovery, but 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC 1Q25 Is the Bottom, Consensus Is Low but the Stock at Average Valuations

UMC: 1Q miss, strong 2Q guidance but low visibility into 2H. JV with Intel for 12nm progressing well with strong demand for 2027. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 2Q25 Guidance Beat; Tariff Affection Unknown; No GF Merger Plan Right Now.

​UMC's 2Q25 guidance shows increased wafer shipments and flat ASP, with limited visibility due to US tariffs. Strategic plan in place to enhance...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Merges with GFS? It Should Be a Terrific, but It Won't Be Easy to Happen.

​Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

​Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

Patrick Liao

UMC expects 2Q25 rebound with wafer shipment growth and margin recovery, but 2H25 visibility remains low due to tariff and inventory uncertainty.

UMC's 2Q25 guidance shows increased wafer shipments and flat ASP, with limited visibility due to US tariffs. Strategic plan in place to enhance...

Stocks of UMC US and GFS US rise on possible merger news despite market instability. GFS ahead in technology but merger faces challenges.

Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...