Mid-market focused investment bank within SE Asia, Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Evolve Capital Research

Mid-market focused investment bank within SE Asia

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asl-marine-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17092:1" rel="noopener">ASL Marine (ASL SP)</a> is an SGX mainboard-listed specializing in marine services: shipbuilding, ship repair and conversion, and ship chartering.</li>
<li>Its integrated model lets it build, repair and operate its own tonnage. Its Batam graving dock is one of the few yards in the region able to dry-dock Capesize tonnage.</li>
<li>We slightly lower our TP of ASL to S$0.38/share (vs. S$0.42 at initiation), implying around 31% upside to the current share price of S$0.29/share.</li>
</ul>



ASL Marine (ASL SP) is an SGX mainboard-listed specializing in marine services: shipbuilding, ship repair and conversion, and ship chartering.
Its integrated model lets it build, repair and operate its own tonnage. Its Batam graving dock is one of the few yards in the region able to dry-dock Capesize tonnage.
We slightly lower our TP of ASL to S$0.38/share (vs. S$0.42 at initiation), implying around 31% upside to the current share price of S$0.29/share.


ASL Marine - FY26 Earnings Update - Chartering to Drive the Upside, Repair to Anchor Quality

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore's banks and it is not particularly positive </li>
<li>The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it's at 67.3%</li>
<li>Singapore's banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans</li>
</ul>


Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore's banks and it is not particularly positive 
The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it's at 67.3%
Singapore's banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans


Singapore Banks - Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

<ul>
<li>There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection</li>
<li>This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener"></a>ABC and BoCom.</li>
<li>Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs </li>
</ul>


There was a release from the State Council in China in late September about increasing Tier 1 capital of 6 of China's banks through a government capital injection
This week there was a Bloomberg story on this, but only them, talking about something similar and indicating at least RMB400bn of new capital for ABC and BoCom.
Interpolating from the numbers, there can be a 10% increase in total equity which may also be equivalent or nearly equivalent or slightly higher than total stated NPLs 


China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

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<li>The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once</li>
<li>Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital</li>
<li>We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China</li>
</ul>


The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once
Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital
We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China


Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

<ul><li>CGSI maintains buy rating on Genting Singapore despite slow tourism recovery, indicating confidence in long-term prospects.</li><li>DBS and RHB lower CDLHT target price due to Singapore hotel oversupply, reflecting concerns about industry saturation.</li><li>Market may be overreacting to Digital Core REIT's Linton Hall data centre, according to DBS, suggesting potential undervaluation.</li></ul>

CGSI maintains buy rating on Genting Singapore despite slow tourism recovery, indicating confidence in long-term prospects.DBS and RHB lower CDLHT target price due to Singapore hotel oversupply, reflecting concerns about industry saturation.Market may be overreacting to Digital Core REIT's Linton Hall data centre, according to DBS, suggesting potential undervaluation.

Singapore Market Roundup (04-Feb-2025): CGSI keeps buy rating on Genting S'pore despite tourism outlook.

Singapore

United Overseas Bank is a leading Asian bank offering a comprehensive range of financial services across its Group Retail, Group Wholesale Banking, and Global Markets segments. Its offerings include personal, private, commercial, and corporate banking, investment banking, asset management, and insurance services. The bank is headquartered in Singapore and was founded in 1935.

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United Overseas Bank (UOB SP)

ASL Marine - FY26 Earnings Update - Chartering to Drive the Upside, Repair to Anchor Quality

We slightly lower our TP of ASL to S$0.38/share (vs. S$0.42 at initiation), implying around 31% upside to the current share price of S$0.29/share.

Evolve Capital Advisory Pte Ltd

Singapore Banks - Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

Singapore's banks new monthly data shows worsening LDR as deposit growth continues to outpace loan growth. There is risk to net interest income...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks - If Largest 5 Banks Are Recapitalized with RMB1,415bn It Can Be Highly Positive

BBG article about China recapitalizing its largest 5 banks, may be real news, coming after an official release in September. Recapping banks can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Singapore's banks are all giving back lots of capital to shareholders. This may appear to be good for yield, but it suggests to us that lending...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Market Roundup (04-Feb-2025): CGSI keeps buy rating on Genting S'pore despite tourism outlook.

CGSI maintains buy on Genting Singapore despite slow tourism recovery; DBS and RHB lower CDLHT target price; market may be overreacting to Digital...

Singapore Market Roundup

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