Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">UOB (UOB SP)</a> just released their 3Q23 results, with their IR documents attached below. Our interpretation of their numbers is less positive than their own presentation. </li>
<li>Credit growth is faltering, with worsening NIM in QoQ, and with what appears to be topping out net interest income. Citi integration costs remain an issue. </li>
<li>Underlying credit metrics with worse recoveries and worse new NPAs are not positive, nor is the 126% rise YoY in credit costs in 3Q23.  Will this improve in 4Q23? </li>
</ul>



UOB (UOB SP) just released their 3Q23 results, with their IR documents attached below. Our interpretation of their numbers is less positive than their own presentation. 
Credit growth is faltering, with worsening NIM in QoQ, and with what appears to be topping out net interest income. Citi integration costs remain an issue. 
Underlying credit metrics with worse recoveries and worse new NPAs are not positive, nor is the 126% rise YoY in credit costs in 3Q23.  Will this improve in 4Q23? 


UOB - Net Profit Down 1.5% YoY, Credit Costs +126% YoY, Citi Costs ~5% of Profit, Expect Worsening

<ul>
<li>UOB can be harder hit than peers due to its greater SME focus. SME's may be less able to absorb or pass on higher costs, or manage worse demand.</li>
<li>Domestic credit growth is at -4.1% in July YoY, from -3.3% YoY in June and from 2.1% in May. This can represent risk-aversion, worse demand, deteriorating credit metrics in SG.</li>
<li>UOB's Greater China lending is SGD52bn, nearly identical to Thailand, Malaysia combined. Building &amp; Construction NPLs rose from SGD1.1bn to SGD1.4bn HoH to 2Q23.</li>
</ul>


UOB can be harder hit than peers due to its greater SME focus. SME's may be less able to absorb or pass on higher costs, or manage worse demand.
Domestic credit growth is at -4.1% in July YoY, from -3.3% YoY in June and from 2.1% in May. This can represent risk-aversion, worse demand, deteriorating credit metrics in SG.
UOB's Greater China lending is SGD52bn, nearly identical to Thailand, Malaysia combined. Building &amp; Construction NPLs rose from SGD1.1bn to SGD1.4bn HoH to 2Q23.


UOB - Weaker Credit | Struggling Cost Base | Moving to Trading | A Changing Face

<ul>
<li>UOB saw bad loans rise 22% during the GFC where DBS saw bad loans rise 146%</li>
<li>During oil price collapse at FY16, DBS saw NPLs up 83%, UOB saw NPLs up 41%</li>
<li>In current downturn, a market capitalization decline may be less at UOB vs DBS</li>
</ul>


UOB saw bad loans rise 22% during the GFC where DBS saw bad loans rise 146%
During oil price collapse at FY16, DBS saw NPLs up 83%, UOB saw NPLs up 41%
In current downturn, a market capitalization decline may be less at UOB vs DBS


UOB & DBS - Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.</li>
<li>Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.</li>
</ul>


Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.
Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.


Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. </li>
<li>GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.</li>
</ul>


GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. 
GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.


GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

Singapore

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

UOB (UOB SP)

UOB - Net Profit Down 1.5% YoY, Credit Costs +126% YoY, Citi Costs ~5% of Profit, Expect Worsening

UOB results are out just out, they do not look good, with worsening loan growth, sharply higher credit costs, meaningful divergence in recoveries...

Daniel Tabbush

UOB - Weaker Credit | Struggling Cost Base | Moving to Trading | A Changing Face

UOB is struggling with operating costs far more than peers, partly from Citibank, partly from oil. Its credit costs are doubling. It is relying...

Daniel Tabbush

UOB & DBS - Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises

UOB and DBS show vastly different rates of NPL growth in the past two crises, favoring the former. UOB's recent provisioning is far higher than...

Daniel Tabbush

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UOB - Net Profit Down 1.5% YoY, Credit Costs +126% YoY, Citi Costs ~5% of Profit, Expect Worsening

UOB results are out just out, they do not look good, with worsening loan growth, sharply higher credit costs, meaningful divergence in recoveries...

Daniel Tabbush

UOB - Weaker Credit | Struggling Cost Base | Moving to Trading | A Changing Face

UOB is struggling with operating costs far more than peers, partly from Citibank, partly from oil. Its credit costs are doubling. It is relying...

Daniel Tabbush

UOB & DBS - Major Divergence In Bad Loans Over Past 2 Crises

UOB and DBS show vastly different rates of NPL growth in the past two crises, favoring the former. UOB's recent provisioning is far higher than...

Daniel Tabbush

Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released...

Sumeet Singh

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh