Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New monthly balance sheet is out for Singapore banks, so we have a window on 3Q23 with data through 1 August. Total loans -6.0% YoY worse than -5.5% preceding month.</li>
<li>Trade finance loans are moving well lower. Growth rate is -24% YoY in latest month with negative double digit growth YoY since January. </li>
<li>Fixed deposits are surging, latest month +37% YoY and these higher cost monies are now 50% of total deposits, compared with 37% of total one year ago. </li>
</ul>


New monthly balance sheet is out for Singapore banks, so we have a window on 3Q23 with data through 1 August. Total loans -6.0% YoY worse than -5.5% preceding month.
Trade finance loans are moving well lower. Growth rate is -24% YoY in latest month with negative double digit growth YoY since January. 
Fixed deposits are surging, latest month +37% YoY and these higher cost monies are now 50% of total deposits, compared with 37% of total one year ago. 


Singapore - New Monthly B/S: Trade Finance Loans -24% YoY, Fixed Deposits +37% YoY at 50% of Total

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UOB can be harder hit than peers due to its greater SME focus. SME's may be less able to absorb or pass on higher costs, or manage worse demand.</li>
<li>Domestic credit growth is at -4.1% in July YoY, from -3.3% YoY in June and from 2.1% in May. This can represent risk-aversion, worse demand, deteriorating credit metrics in SG.</li>
<li>UOB's Greater China lending is SGD52bn, nearly identical to Thailand, Malaysia combined. Building &amp; Construction NPLs rose from SGD1.1bn to SGD1.4bn HoH to 2Q23.</li>
</ul>


UOB can be harder hit than peers due to its greater SME focus. SME's may be less able to absorb or pass on higher costs, or manage worse demand.
Domestic credit growth is at -4.1% in July YoY, from -3.3% YoY in June and from 2.1% in May. This can represent risk-aversion, worse demand, deteriorating credit metrics in SG.
UOB's Greater China lending is SGD52bn, nearly identical to Thailand, Malaysia combined. Building &amp; Construction NPLs rose from SGD1.1bn to SGD1.4bn HoH to 2Q23.


UOB - Weaker Credit | Struggling Cost Base | Moving to Trading | A Changing Face

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Keppel Infrastructure Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>OCBC, CapitaLand Investment, UOBKH lead buyback tally OCBC led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 1.2 million shares at an average price of S$12.74 per share, followed by CapitaLand Investment, which bought back two million shares at an average price of S$3.03 per share.</li><li>This was due mainly to the increase in revenue from hotel operations of S$34.7 million and rental of investment properties of S$2.3 million.</li></ul>

OCBC, CapitaLand Investment, UOBKH lead buyback tally OCBC led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 1.2 million shares at an average price of S$12.74 per share, followed by CapitaLand Investment, which bought back two million shares at an average price of S$3.03 per share.This was due mainly to the increase in revenue from hotel operations of S$34.7 million and rental of investment properties of S$2.3 million.

OCBC, CapitaLand Investment, UOBKH Lead Buyback Tally

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Reserach puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics</a> finally set the ball rollling for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s restrucuting, by filing for an HK listing</li>
<li>In the placement space, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a> was back in the market again, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technologie" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dpc-dash-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36556:1" rel="noopener">DPC Dash (1405 HK)</a> came of lock-ups.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Reserach puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Cainiao Smart Logistics finally set the ball rollling for Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s restrucuting, by filing for an HK listing
In the placement space, Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) was back in the market again, while Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie (9863 HK) and DPC Dash (1405 HK) came of lock-ups.


ECM Weekly (1st Oct 2023) - Cainiao, J&T, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Ecopro, Leapmotor, Bajaj Finance

<ul><li>Wilmar chairman Kuok, QAF MD Lin Kejian continue to build interests OCBC led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 2 million shares at an average price of S$12.67 per share, followed by Olam Group, which bought back 7 million shares at an average price of S$1.08 per share.</li><li>Between Sep 13 and Sep 15, QAF joint group managing director and executive director Lin Kejian acquired 945,600 shares at an average price of S$0.824 per share.</li></ul>

Wilmar chairman Kuok, QAF MD Lin Kejian continue to build interests OCBC led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 2 million shares at an average price of S$12.67 per share, followed by Olam Group, which bought back 7 million shares at an average price of S$1.08 per share.Between Sep 13 and Sep 15, QAF joint group managing director and executive director Lin Kejian acquired 945,600 shares at an average price of S$0.824 per share.

Wilmar’s Chairman Kuok & QAF MD Lin Kejian Continue to Build Interests

Singapore

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

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UOB (UOB SP)

Singapore - New Monthly B/S: Trade Finance Loans -24% YoY, Fixed Deposits +37% YoY at 50% of Total

New monthly balance sheets show trade finance loans -24% YoY, fixed deposits are +37% YoY and now account for 50% of total deposits, far more than...

Daniel Tabbush

UOB - Weaker Credit | Struggling Cost Base | Moving to Trading | A Changing Face

UOB is struggling with operating costs far more than peers, partly from Citibank, partly from oil. Its credit costs are doubling. It is relying...

Daniel Tabbush

OCBC, CapitaLand Investment, UOBKH Lead Buyback Tally

OCBC, CapitaLand Investment, UOBKH lead buyback tally OCBC led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 1.2 million shares at an average...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

ECM Weekly (1st Oct 2023) - Cainiao, J&T, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Ecopro, Leapmotor, Bajaj Finance

Aequitas Reserach puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Wilmar’s Chairman Kuok & QAF MD Lin Kejian Continue to Build Interests

Wilmar chairman Kuok, QAF MD Lin Kejian continue to build interests OCBC led the share buyback consideration tally, buying back 2 million shares...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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