Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Real estate lending growth in Hong Kong remains weak and now at lowest growth rate in the HKMA series since early FY05</li>
<li>Deposits are overwhelming HK's banks with LDR now moving to 55% in April FY25, nearly the lowest on record from HKMA series</li>
<li>Capital flight risk on the HK currency is also more severe than in the past, at any time, with FX reserves at 1.6x , well below past levels</li>
</ul>


Real estate lending growth in Hong Kong remains weak and now at lowest growth rate in the HKMA series since early FY05
Deposits are overwhelming HK's banks with LDR now moving to 55% in April FY25, nearly the lowest on record from HKMA series
Capital flight risk on the HK currency is also more severe than in the past, at any time, with FX reserves at 1.6x , well below past levels


Hong Kong Banks - Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Temasek aims to raise around US$104m via selling nearly half of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ifast-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17798:1" rel="noopener">iFAST (IFAST SP)</a>.</li>
<li>The stock has done exceptionally well over the past few years, however, it is now trading at its all time highs.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Temasek aims to raise around US$104m via selling nearly half of its stake in iFAST (IFAST SP).
The stock has done exceptionally well over the past few years, however, it is now trading at its all time highs.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


IFAST Placement - Great Track Record but the Stock Is Toppish

<ul>
<li>We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. </li>
<li>There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC</li>
<li>CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket</li>
</ul>


We believe that the credit metric deterioration at HSBC is not well flagged by the bank, or well understood in the market. 
There is substantial growth in credit costs in its HK business, where this has been the most important driver of value for HSBC
CRE credit metrics are of concern in HK and in Mainland China, where Stage 2 loans are rising substantially, from Stage 1 loan bucket


HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a> needs to sell shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haw-par-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9898:1" rel="noopener">Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">UOB (UOB SP)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) needs to sell shares in GMO Internet (4784 JP) to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. 
Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)/ UOB (UOB SP) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Stay Short On GMO Internet (4784 JP); Haw Par Now Even More Stretched

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-dc-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45414:1" rel="noopener">NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP)</a>, a data center REIT, raised around US$772m in its Singapore IPO.</li>
<li>The IPO portfolio comprises six mainly freehold data centres in the U.S., Austria and Singapore with an aggregate appraised valuation of US$1.6bn</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP), a data center REIT, raised around US$772m in its Singapore IPO.
The IPO portfolio comprises six mainly freehold data centres in the U.S., Austria and Singapore with an aggregate appraised valuation of US$1.6bn
We have looked at the past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


NTT DC REIT IPO Trading - Decent Demand, High Yield and Discount Should Help

Singapore

United Overseas Bank Limited provides a wide range of financial services including personal financial services, wealth management, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, transaction banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management and insurance.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

UOB (UOB SP)

Hong Kong Banks - Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit

Bank of East Asia 1H25 release shows considerable worsening in CRE in Hong Kong and in Mainland China. Its credit metrics in Macau, are also...

Daniel Tabbush

IFAST Placement - Great Track Record but the Stock Is Toppish

Temasek aims to raise around US$104m via selling nearly half of its stake in iFAST (IFAST SP). In this note, we talk about the deal dyanmics.

Sumeet Singh

HSBC - 1H25 Tables & Data, Clear Risks, Even if Not Stated in Headlines

HSBC 1H25 data release has a lot of granular data, which does not instill a huge amount of confidence in HK or CH credit metrics.

Daniel Tabbush

StubWorld: Stay Short On GMO Internet (4784 JP); Haw Par Now Even More Stretched

GMO Internet (9449 JP) needs to sell GMO Internet (4784), and it is doing so. If you can take down borrow on 4784, stay short. It could get bumpy....

David Blennerhassett

NTT DC REIT IPO Trading - Decent Demand, High Yield and Discount Should Help

NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP), a data center REIT, raised around US$772m in its Singapore IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)