Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. Some changes from earlier following 45 new F&amp;O stocks.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 61.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 63.4bn (US$752m).</li>
<li>The potential inclusions to the index have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of June. This trend could continue for a couple of weeks till the changes are announced.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. Some changes from earlier following 45 new F&amp;O stocks.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 61.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 63.4bn (US$752m).
The potential inclusions to the index have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of June. This trend could continue for a couple of weeks till the changes are announced.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: More Changes with New F&O Stocks

<ul>
<li>There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).</li>
<li>Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).
Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In an attempt to cover more companies, we shift gears from individual companies to sectoral analysis, focusing on alcoholic beverages in this insight.</li>
<li>Companies in focus are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-spirits-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5146:1" rel="noopener">United Spirits (UNSP IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/radico-khaitan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20842:1" rel="noopener">Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sula-vineyards-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36206:1" rel="noopener">Sula Vineyards (SULA IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-breweries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18080:1" rel="noopener">United Breweries (UBBL IN)</a>. </li>
<li>UNSP remains the best among the pack in terms of earnings quality, and SULA occupies the other extreme. RDCK is chasing growth, and UBBL is facing challenges. </li>
</ul>


In an attempt to cover more companies, we shift gears from individual companies to sectoral analysis, focusing on alcoholic beverages in this insight.
Companies in focus are United Spirits (UNSP IN), Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN) , Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) &amp; United Breweries (UBBL IN). 
UNSP remains the best among the pack in terms of earnings quality, and SULA occupies the other extreme. RDCK is chasing growth, and UBBL is facing challenges. 


Narrative and Numbers | Alcoholic Beverages | FY24

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allied-blenders-distillers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36090:1" rel="noopener">Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers</a>' recent IPO spotlighted India's alcoholic beverage sector, which bucks global trends with strong volume and value growth.</li>
<li>India is the third largest alcoholic beverage market globally, and the second largest for spirits. It is projected to grow at a CAGR of more than 10% over the near-term.</li>
<li>Incumbent players in this highly regulated sector can benefit from strong market moats and evolving growth opportunities if they can effectively navigate the highly regulated business  environment.</li>
</ul>



Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers' recent IPO spotlighted India's alcoholic beverage sector, which bucks global trends with strong volume and value growth.
India is the third largest alcoholic beverage market globally, and the second largest for spirits. It is projected to grow at a CAGR of more than 10% over the near-term.
Incumbent players in this highly regulated sector can benefit from strong market moats and evolving growth opportunities if they can effectively navigate the highly regulated business  environment.


India Alcoholic Beverages: Growing in Pints And Quarts. IPO Adds a Valuation Kick

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Allied Blenders and Distillers / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allied-blenders-distillers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36090:1" rel="noopener">Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers (9844250Z IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY22.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we talked about various aspects of the company. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers (9844250Z IN) is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO.
ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY22.
In our previous notes, we talked about various aspects of the company. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates and our thoughts on valuation.


Allied Blenders and Distillers - RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

India

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

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United Spirits (UNITDSPR IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: More Changes with New F&O Stocks

We forecast 17 changes a side for the index in Dec. Some of the changes have changed following 45 new F&O inclusions. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

There could be 16 constituent changes in December. one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn...

Brian Freitas

Narrative and Numbers | Alcoholic Beverages | FY24

United Spirits leads in earnings quality while Sula Vineyards lags behind, Radico Khaitan pursues growth, and United Breweries encounters challenges.

Pranav Bhavsar

India Alcoholic Beverages: Growing in Pints And Quarts. IPO Adds a Valuation Kick

India's alcoholic beverage sector has delivered strong volume and value growth as well as attractive shareholder returns. Know the fundamentals and...

Devi Subhakesan

Allied Blenders and Distillers - RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about its RHP updates...

Ethan Aw

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