Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is a strong probability that the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the UK might be closed next month.</li>
<li>FTA could be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry with a possibility of sharp reduction in customs duty. Additionally, it can open new export avenues for domestic companies.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries may include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-spirits-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5146:1" rel="noopener">United Spirits (UNSP IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pernod-ricard-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21533:1" rel="noopener">Pernod Ricard Sa (RI FP)</a>, and also Indian companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globus-spirits-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15728:1" rel="noopener">Globus Spirits (GBSL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/radico-khaitan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20842:1" rel="noopener">Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)</a>
</li>
</ul>


There is a strong probability that the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the UK might be closed next month.
FTA could be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry with a possibility of sharp reduction in customs duty. Additionally, it can open new export avenues for domestic companies.
Beneficiaries may include United Spirits (UNSP IN) and Pernod Ricard Sa (RI FP), and also Indian companies like Globus Spirits (GBSL IN) and Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)



India-UK FTA: Can Be Game-Changer for Liquor Industry

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The trade remains Long Nifty with a watch on earnings. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys Ltd (INFO IN)</a> reported a beat on revenues and a miss on EPS, heading into seasonally weak quarters is the pain now consensus? </li>
<li>Other names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4627:1" rel="noopener">Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The trade remains Long Nifty with a watch on earnings. 

Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) reported a beat on revenues and a miss on EPS, heading into seasonally weak quarters is the pain now consensus? 
Other names discussed include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN), HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN). 


[Week 7] Namaste India 🙏 | Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) | Seasonal Sluggishness Now Consensus

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sula-vineyards-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36206:1" rel="noopener">Sula Vineyards </a> raised around US$117m in its India IPO in Dec 2022.</li>
<li>Sula Vineyards (SV) distributes wines under a bouquet of brands. In addition to its flagship brand “Sula,” popular brands include “RASA,” “Dindori”, “The source,” “Satori”, “Madera” &amp; “Dia”. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Sula Vineyards  raised around US$117m in its India IPO in Dec 2022.
Sula Vineyards (SV) distributes wines under a bouquet of brands. In addition to its flagship brand “Sula,” popular brands include “RASA,” “Dindori”, “The source,” “Satori”, “Madera” &amp; “Dia”. 
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Sula Vineyards IPO Lock-Up - Large Investor Could Look to Completely Exit

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

Allied Blenders & Distillers / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allied-blenders-distillers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36090:1" rel="noopener">Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers (ABD IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. I-Sec, Axis Capital, JM Financial, Kotak and Equirus Capital will be the bookrunners.</li>
<li>ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY21.</li>
<li>ABD has grown its brand over time and managed to stay profitable, despite COVID-19. However, sales volume has yet to return to pre-COVID levels, along with its profitability. </li>
</ul>



Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers (ABD IN) is looking to raise about US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. I-Sec, Axis Capital, JM Financial, Kotak and Equirus Capital will be the bookrunners.
ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY21.
ABD has grown its brand over time and managed to stay profitable, despite COVID-19. However, sales volume has yet to return to pre-COVID levels, along with its profitability. 


Allied Blenders and Distillers Pre-IPO - Yet to Recover from COVID-19

India

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

United Spirits (UNSP IN)

India-UK FTA: Can Be Game-Changer for Liquor Industry

The FTA can be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry, as customs duty might be slashed sharply. It can open up new avenues for exports for...

Nitin Mangal

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

[Week 7] Namaste India 🙏 | Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) | Seasonal Sluggishness Now Consensus

The trade remains long Nifty. Names discussed include INFO, DMART, DELTACORP and HDFCAMC. The next two weeks are going to be busy as the full...

Pranav Bhavsar

Sula Vineyards IPO Lock-Up - Large Investor Could Look to Completely Exit

Sula Vineyards raised around US$117m in its India IPO in Dec 2022. In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry.

Sumeet Singh

Allied Blenders and Distillers Pre-IPO - Yet to Recover from COVID-19

Allied Blenders & Distillers (ABD IN) is looking to raise about US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. I-Sec, Axis Capital, JM Financial, Kotak and...

Ethan Aw

India-UK FTA: Can Be Game-Changer for Liquor Industry

The FTA can be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry, as customs duty might be slashed sharply. It can open up new avenues for exports for...

Nitin Mangal

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

[Week 7] Namaste India 🙏 | Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) | Seasonal Sluggishness Now Consensus

The trade remains long Nifty. Names discussed include INFO, DMART, DELTACORP and HDFCAMC. The next two weeks are going to be busy as the full...

Pranav Bhavsar

Sula Vineyards IPO Lock-Up - Large Investor Could Look to Completely Exit

Sula Vineyards raised around US$117m in its India IPO in Dec 2022. In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry.

Sumeet Singh

Allied Blenders and Distillers Pre-IPO - Yet to Recover from COVID-19

Allied Blenders & Distillers (ABD IN) is looking to raise about US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. I-Sec, Axis Capital, JM Financial, Kotak and...

Ethan Aw

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...