Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates to 7.35% and 7.40% for specific tenors.</li>
<li>Adani Green Energy starts 250 MW wind project, boosting total capacity to 2,250 MW.</li>
<li>EQT exits RBL Bank with Rs 1,100 crore stake sale; shares drop 3%.</li>
</ul>


HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates to 7.35% and 7.40% for specific tenors.
Adani Green Energy starts 250 MW wind project, boosting total capacity to 2,250 MW.
EQT exits RBL Bank with Rs 1,100 crore stake sale; shares drop 3%.


# 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-agarwal-s-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43984:1" rel="noopener">Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN)</a> raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Dr Agarwal's Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) raised around US$350m in its India IPO in Jan 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>There is a strong probability that the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the UK might be closed next month.</li>
<li>FTA could be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry with a possibility of sharp reduction in customs duty. Additionally, it can open new export avenues for domestic companies.</li>
<li>Beneficiaries may include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-spirits-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5146:1" rel="noopener">United Spirits (UNSP IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pernod-ricard-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21533:1" rel="noopener">Pernod Ricard Sa (RI FP)</a>, and also Indian companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globus-spirits-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15728:1" rel="noopener">Globus Spirits (GBSL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/radico-khaitan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20842:1" rel="noopener">Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)</a>
</li>
</ul>


There is a strong probability that the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the UK might be closed next month.
FTA could be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry with a possibility of sharp reduction in customs duty. Additionally, it can open new export avenues for domestic companies.
Beneficiaries may include United Spirits (UNSP IN) and Pernod Ricard Sa (RI FP), and also Indian companies like Globus Spirits (GBSL IN) and Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)



India-UK FTA: Can Be Game-Changer for Liquor Industry

India

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

United Spirits (UNITDSPR IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

# 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL

HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates, Adani Green Energy expands wind project capacity, EQT exits RBL Bank causing share drop.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

TPG and Temasek are selling part of their stakes , around 11% of Dr Agarwal Health Care's existing share capital, to raise around US$183m, at a...

Akshat Shah

India-UK FTA: Can Be Game-Changer for Liquor Industry

The FTA can be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry, as customs duty might be slashed sharply. It can open up new avenues for exports for...

Nitin Mangal

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

# 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL

​HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates, Adani Green Energy expands wind project capacity, EQT exits RBL Bank causing share drop.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Dr Agarwal’s Health Care IPO Lockup - US$725m Lockup Release; PE Investors May Look to Cash Out

TPG and Temasek are selling part of their stakes , around 11% of Dr Agarwal Health Care's existing share capital, to raise around US$183m, at a...

Akshat Shah

India-UK FTA: Can Be Game-Changer for Liquor Industry

The FTA can be a game changer for the Indian Liquor Industry, as customs duty might be slashed sharply. It can open up new avenues for exports for...

Nitin Mangal

HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates, Adani Green Energy expands wind project capacity, EQT exits RBL Bank causing share drop.

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...