Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Lately, we’ve been quite outspoken regarding the imminent threat posed by the USD/Oil dynamics, which has the potential to unleash turmoil within the emerging markets sphere.</li><li>While we typically don’t shy away from challenging prevailing opinions, it appears that, in this specific context, our perspective is slowly becoming the consensus view (which, I might add, is more lucrative than the opposite order).</li><li>But perhaps it is worthwhile to question and assess the fundamental drivers behind the current predicament-  and ask what does it take to turn things around?</li></ul>

Lately, we’ve been quite outspoken regarding the imminent threat posed by the USD/Oil dynamics, which has the potential to unleash turmoil within the emerging markets sphere.While we typically don’t shy away from challenging prevailing opinions, it appears that, in this specific context, our perspective is slowly becoming the consensus view (which, I might add, is more lucrative than the opposite order).But perhaps it is worthwhile to question and assess the fundamental drivers behind the current predicament-  and ask what does it take to turn things around?

EM by EM #23 Playing the Least Dirty Laundry Vs the Dirtiest

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul>
<li>In this edition of your maverick energy/commodity newsletter from both sides of the pond, we discuss whether the Chinese stimulus will finally see demand picking up markedly in China and whether this could lead to Energy becoming THE consensus bet again.</li>
<li>Let’s dive right in! </li>
<li>Will we finally see Chinese demand with the new stimulus?</li>
</ul>


In this edition of your maverick energy/commodity newsletter from both sides of the pond, we discuss whether the Chinese stimulus will finally see demand picking up markedly in China and whether this could lead to Energy becoming THE consensus bet again.
Let’s dive right in! 
Will we finally see Chinese demand with the new stimulus?


The Energy Cable #36 – Will We Finally See Chinese Demand with the New Stimulus?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?</li><li>Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.</li><li>We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.</li></ul>

Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Global Healthcare ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.</li>
<li>MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
<li>This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe</li>
</ul>


As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe


Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

<p>The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index) also display a bullish reversal topside a 12.5-year downtrend. This type of evidence helps affirm our bullish outlook and suggests higher prices are ahead. Continue to add exposure on pullbacks.</p>

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index) also display a bullish reversal topside a 12.5-year downtrend. This type of evidence helps affirm our bullish outlook and suggests higher prices are ahead. Continue to add exposure on pullbacks.

Long-Term Bullish Inflections For Hang Seng, DAX, MSCI EM, & Bloomberg Commodity Index

United States

United States Brent Oil Fund LP is an exchange traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit's net asset value reflect the changes of the price of Brent Crude Oil, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of an average of the Brent Crude Oil futures contracts on the ICE-UK.

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United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO US)

EM by EM #23 Playing the Least Dirty Laundry Vs the Dirtiest

Lately, we’ve been quite outspoken regarding the imminent threat posed by the USD/Oil dynamics, which has the potential to unleash turmoil within...

Steno Research

The Energy Cable #36 – Will We Finally See Chinese Demand with the New Stimulus?

In this edition of your maverick energy/commodity newsletter from both sides of the pond, we discuss whether the Chinese stimulus will finally see...

Steno Research

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

With MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation back to its 2022 levels, is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala...

Steno Research

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

We have recommended shifting to defensives throughout Feb/March due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on $ACWI. We highlight buys within...

Vermilion Research

Long-Term Bullish Inflections For Hang Seng, DAX, MSCI EM, & Bloomberg Commodity Index

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities also breaking a 12.5-year downtrend....

Vermilion Research

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