Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

There are bound to be banks caught out on derivative exposures related to oil. The sharp and sudden move downward in oil prices from peaks of US$50 per barrel in recent months to around US$38 currently will surely catch some off guard.Should the figures remain low, we must expect lower growth in those countries most dependent on it, eg. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The two banks that come to mind with exposure here are HSBC and Standard Chartered. But the scale is vastly…

There are bound to be banks caught out on derivative exposures related to oil. The sharp and sudden move downward in oil prices from peaks of US$50 per barrel in recent months to around US$38 currently will surely catch some off guard.Should the figures remain low, we must expect lower growth in those countries most dependent on it, eg. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The two banks that come to mind with exposure here are HSBC and Standard Chartered. But the scale is vastly…

STAN's OPEC Exposure Is 2/3 of Capital but Lower at HSBC

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<h2>The News</h2>Last week there had been hints by the tea leaf readers that OPEC might consider an output cut at its Friday meeting, and Venezuela had proposed a 5% output cut on Thursday. OPEC disappointed oil bulls Friday however when the meeting of oil ministers in Vienna <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-04/opec-maintains-crude-production-as-group-defers-output-target-ihryzilb" target="_blank">reconfirmed</a> output levels of 31.5mm bbl/day - in excess of its current production quotas of 30mm bbl/day (but including Indonesian output).<div class="content-highlight">After Friday’s OPEC decision “everyone does whatever they want,” said Iranian Oil Minister…</div>

The NewsLast week there had been hints by the tea leaf readers that OPEC might consider an output cut at its Friday meeting, and Venezuela had proposed a 5% output cut on Thursday. OPEC disappointed oil bulls Friday however when the meeting of oil ministers in Vienna reconfirmed output levels of 31.5mm bbl/day - in excess of its current production quotas of 30mm bbl/day (but including Indonesian output).After Friday’s OPEC decision “everyone does whatever they want,” said Iranian Oil Minister…

TIGER AIR: OPEC Shenanigans Give Tiger Air Deal a Boost in Value

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, announced the International Solar Alliance (ISA). The ISA aims to have 121 signatories, including the US and China, as well as a long list of developing countries situated between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.It aims to mobilize $1tn worth of investment by 2030 towards developing solar power around the world, especially in the sun rich countries…

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, announced the International Solar Alliance (ISA). The ISA aims to have 121 signatories, including the US and China, as well as a long list of developing countries situated between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.It aims to mobilize $1tn worth of investment by 2030 towards developing solar power around the world, especially in the sun rich countries…

Announcing the International Solar Alliance

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

In <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/how-oil-can-head-over-100-by-2017" target="_blank">my last thoughts on oil</a>, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the world, with these being declared as the first of the coming storm. An Arab Winter is coming and the inability of the world to band together to defeat a relatively small force in Raqqa bodes ill for our ability to handle it. This piece looks at some key questions over Daesh  -- the Arabic acronym for Islamic State -- and how we deal with them. Daesh can…

 The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the world, with these being declared as the first of the coming storm. An Arab Winter is coming and the inability of the world to band together to defeat a relatively small force in Raqqa bodes ill for our ability to handle it. This piece looks at some key questions over Daesh  -- the Arabic acronym for Islamic State -- and how we deal with them. Daesh can…

United States

United States Oil Fund LP is a Delaware limited partnership incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit's net asset value reflect the changes of the price of WTI Crude Oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of the WTI Crude Oil futures contract on the NYMEX. The fund is a commodity pool.

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United States Oil Fund LP (USO US)

STAN's OPEC Exposure Is 2/3 of Capital but Lower at HSBC

There are bound to be banks caught out on derivative exposures related to oil. The sharp and sudden move downward in oil prices from peaks of US$50...

Daniel Tabbush

TIGER AIR: OPEC Shenanigans Give Tiger Air Deal a Boost in Value

The NewsLast week there had been hints by the tea leaf readers that OPEC might consider an output cut at its Friday meeting, and Venezuela had...

Travis Lundy

Announcing the International Solar Alliance

As the COP21 summit flagged off in Paris yesterday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his French counterpart, Francois Hollande,...

Ishita Jain

Is an OPEC Cut Imminent?

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the...

Emad Mostaque

Deconstructing Daesh

The events that have occurred in Paris, Baghdad and Beirut over the last few days confirm the rising geopolitical risk we are facing across the...

Emad Mostaque

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