Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>. Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a>'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.</li>
<li>If you had any <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 

Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-states-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:202:1" rel="noopener">United States Steel (X US)</a> have agreed an all-cash $55.00/share offer, 142% premium to where X traded before Cliff's approach, a very generous 7x EV/24e EBITDA.</li>
<li>A determined buyer seeks market share in the lucrative US market, with no meaningful synergies expected and willingness to keep all US Steel jobs and (greener) growth projects.</li>
<li>Although unions and some lawmakers are voicing concerns, CFIUS shouldn't pose a big hurdle. Spread is 12.04%/17.93% (gross/annualised, assuming late settlement by end of Q3 2024). Long.
</li>
</ul>



Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) and United States Steel (X US) have agreed an all-cash $55.00/share offer, 142% premium to where X traded before Cliff's approach, a very generous 7x EV/24e EBITDA.
A determined buyer seeks market share in the lucrative US market, with no meaningful synergies expected and willingness to keep all US Steel jobs and (greener) growth projects.
Although unions and some lawmakers are voicing concerns, CFIUS shouldn't pose a big hurdle. Spread is 12.04%/17.93% (gross/annualised, assuming late settlement by end of Q3 2024). Long.



Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp: Knock-Out Offer

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cleveland-Cliffs is becoming too aggressive in its consolidation goals, says author.</li>
<li>Cliffs continues to underperform its peers, I outline some important red flags associated with the company's acquisition spree. I remain sceptical that a deal for U.S.</li>
<li>Steel would be beneficial for shareholders.</li>
</ul>


Cleveland-Cliffs is becoming too aggressive in its consolidation goals, says author.
Cliffs continues to underperform its peers, I outline some important red flags associated with the company's acquisition spree. I remain sceptical that a deal for U.S.
Steel would be beneficial for shareholders.


Cleveland-Cliffs: Consolidation At Any Cost Comes With Strings Attached

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting, Bucephalus Research Partnership

Robert Medd

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

The spectacular sale of Elevators has transformed TKA’s balance sheet and the performance problems are finally being addressed. The cash from the sale will more than cover COVID losses, the restructuring and restore TKA to health. A management prioritising productivity and margin over revenue should transform both P&amp;L and cashflow. We estimated 16-19,000 job cuts, but with the new plan, 23,000 jobs and E6bn of revenue will be off-loaded. The supervisory board has a poor track record, but the shareholder appointees have been renewed so they may deliver. Investors can buy cash at a discount with a free option on a turnaround. On 2.5x EV/fEBITDA, it is time to BUY:

The spectacular sale of Elevators has transformed TKA’s balance sheet and the performance problems are finally being addressed. The cash from the sale will more than cover COVID losses, the restructuring and restore TKA to health. A management prioritising productivity and margin over revenue should transform both P&amp;L and cashflow. We estimated 16-19,000 job cuts, but with the new plan, 23,000 jobs and E6bn of revenue will be off-loaded. The supervisory board has a poor track record, but the shareholder appointees have been renewed so they may deliver. Investors can buy cash at a discount with a free option on a turnaround. On 2.5x EV/fEBITDA, it is time to BUY:

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

A Posco shareholder is selling down USD140mm worth of stock after market today in an accelerated book build. In this insight we evaluate the deal dynamics, inspect underlying fundamentals and run the deal as per our proprietary data-driven framework.

A Posco shareholder is selling down USD140mm worth of stock after market today in an accelerated book build. In this insight we evaluate the deal dynamics, inspect underlying fundamentals and run the deal as per our proprietary data-driven framework.  

POSCO Secondary Placing: Steel Fundamentals Challenging

United States

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

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United States Steel (X US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp: Knock-Out Offer

This is a very appealing special situation: a motivated buyer, with its cards on the table, financing set aside, support from target and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Cleveland-Cliffs: Consolidation At Any Cost Comes With Strings Attached

Cliffs continues to underperform its peers, I outline some important red flags associated with the company's acquisition spree. I remain sceptical...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Thyssenkrupp: Turnaround Underway

The spectacular sale of Elevators has transformed TKA’s balance sheet and the performance problems are finally being addressed. The cash from the...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

POSCO Secondary Placing: Steel Fundamentals Challenging

A Posco shareholder is selling down USD140mm worth of stock after market today in an accelerated book build. In this insight we evaluate the deal...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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