Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to Random Walks Down David's Mind!</li><li>This issue will be a special one, as I explore the delicate relationship between government spending and economic growth, focusing on the contrasting fiscal approaches of the US and Germany over the past 15 years—and their divergent GDP trajectories.</li><li>Recently, I set out to determine to what extent differing levels of government spending could explain these economic differences.</li></ul>

Welcome to Random Walks Down David's Mind!This issue will be a special one, as I explore the delicate relationship between government spending and economic growth, focusing on the contrasting fiscal approaches of the US and Germany over the past 15 years—and their divergent GDP trajectories.Recently, I set out to determine to what extent differing levels of government spending could explain these economic differences.

RW-03-25: Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Comparison Between Germany and the US

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Fed chair Powell was very clear that getting inflation down to 2% was still the prime objective.</li><li>The Chairman talked about the strengths of the US economy, progress in the labour market and rise in long term rates.</li><li>But he was also cautious and did not offer clear signals of what the Fed intended to do ahead.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fed chair Powell was very clear that getting inflation down to 2% was still the prime objective.The Chairman talked about the strengths of the US economy, progress in the labour market and rise in long term rates.But he was also cautious and did not offer clear signals of what the Fed intended to do ahead.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Powell’s hawkish tone in Jackson Hole The Fed’s chairman’s speech last Friday on annual Jackson meeting emphasized the potential need for The Fed to implement additional interest rate hikes to cool still-too-high inflation.</li>
<li>The PCE inflation rate in June 2023 was 2.97% y-y, down from 3.8% y-y in June 2022.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation rate as the key indicator decreased to 4.1% y-y from June’s of 4.6% y-y with consensus of 4.2% y-y in July. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Powell’s hawkish tone in Jackson Hole The Fed’s chairman’s speech last Friday on annual Jackson meeting emphasized the potential need for The Fed to implement additional interest rate hikes to cool still-too-high inflation.
The PCE inflation rate in June 2023 was 2.97% y-y, down from 3.8% y-y in June 2022.
Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation rate as the key indicator decreased to 4.1% y-y from June’s of 4.6% y-y with consensus of 4.2% y-y in July. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 29, 2023

<ul><li>Sentiment against the US’s economy US Retail Sales growth exceed expectation with 3.2% y-y (vs. cons: 1.5%), the fastest growth pace in 5-months.</li><li>The monthly growth reached 0.7%, highest since Feb-23, driven by strong sales during Amazon Prime day.</li><li>US Fed minutes of July’s FOMC meeting shows that some participants already in favor of keeping the rate steady due to the stance of monetary policy becoming too restrictive. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sentiment against the US’s economy US Retail Sales growth exceed expectation with 3.2% y-y (vs. cons: 1.5%), the fastest growth pace in 5-months.The monthly growth reached 0.7%, highest since Feb-23, driven by strong sales during Amazon Prime day.US Fed minutes of July’s FOMC meeting shows that some participants already in favor of keeping the rate steady due to the stance of monetary policy becoming too restrictive. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 22, 2023

<ul><li>Highlights: GLOBAL US inflation remained moderate in July</li><li>China’s economy is faltering: trade slumps and fears of deflation grow</li><li>The UK economy rises at an unexpectedly fast rate</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Highlights: GLOBAL US inflation remained moderate in JulyChina’s economy is faltering: trade slumps and fears of deflation growThe UK economy rises at an unexpectedly fast rateContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 15, 2023

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

RW-03-25: Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Comparison Between Germany and the US

Welcome to Random Walks Down David's Mind! This issue will be a special one, as I explore the delicate relationship between government spending...

Contrarian Cashflows

FOMC Review: Unsure

Fed chair Powell was very clear that getting inflation down to 2% was still the prime objective. The Chairman talked about the strengths of the US...

Nordea

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 29, 2023

Powell’s hawkish tone in Jackson Hole The Fed’s chairman’s speech last Friday on annual Jackson meeting emphasized the potential need for The Fed...

BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 22, 2023

entiment against the US’s economy US Retail Sales growth exceed expectation with 3.2% y-y (vs. cons: 1.5%), the fastest growth pace in 5-months.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 15, 2023

US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY. Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.

BRI Danareksa Research

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