Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.75%–2.0% today (the vote was unanimous, even as the hawkish Kansas City Fed President Esther George joined the voting rotation due to the vacancy created by the move to the New York Fed by John Williams).  The policy statement noted that “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in…

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.75%–2.0% today (the vote was unanimous, even as the hawkish Kansas City Fed President Esther George joined the voting rotation due to the vacancy created by the move to the New York Fed by John Williams).  The policy statement noted that “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in…

Fed Chairman Powell delivered the first leg of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy and the economy before the Senate Banking Committee this morning.Powell was upbeat on the labor market saying “the job market has continued to strengthen … An average of 215,000 net new jobs were created each month in the first half of this year. That number is somewhat higher than the monthly average for 2017. It is also a good deal higher than the average number of people who enter the work force each…

Fed Chairman Powell delivered the first leg of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy and the economy before the Senate Banking Committee this morning.Powell was upbeat on the labor market saying “the job market has continued to strengthen … An average of 215,000 net new jobs were created each month in the first half of this year. That number is somewhat higher than the monthly average for 2017. It is also a good deal higher than the average number of people who enter the work force each…

Fed Chairman Powell’s Semiannual Testimony Before Congress

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

This old Wall Street adage should be writ large across traders screens and read in plurals, because its not just the US Federal Reserve that is tightening monetary policy – many other policy-makers are too. Across the eighty-odd Central Banks we regularly monitor each month, a whopping two-thirds are now running tight liquidity policies. This high figure, which in practice rarely gets much higher, is shown in the first chart. In fact, in the Developed World the proportion jumps to a huge…

This old Wall Street adage should be writ large across traders screens and read in plurals, because its not just the US Federal Reserve that is tightening monetary policy – many other policy-makers are too. Across the eighty-odd Central Banks we regularly monitor each month, a whopping two-thirds are now running tight liquidity policies. This high figure, which in practice rarely gets much higher, is shown in the first chart. In fact, in the Developed World the proportion jumps to a huge…

Don’t Fight The Fedsssssssss….World Money Is Too Tight

Core CPI prices rose 0.2% in June, as expected, and the year-over-year core CPI inflation rate picked up to 2.3% from 2.2%.  Both owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence rose 0.3%; however, shelter prices rose only 0.1% as hotel prices posted their largest monthly decline on record (data back to 1967).  Medical care prices rose 0.4%, new vehicle prices increased 0.4%, used vehicle prices rose 0.7%, while airfares dropped a further 0.9% and apparel prices also fell 0.9%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/057/565/original/071218acht1.png?1531402021" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="57565"></figure><div class="content-remarks">Source…</div>

Core CPI prices rose 0.2% in June, as expected, and the year-over-year core CPI inflation rate picked up to 2.3% from 2.2%.  Both owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence rose 0.3%; however, shelter prices rose only 0.1% as hotel prices posted their largest monthly decline on record (data back to 1967).  Medical care prices rose 0.4%, new vehicle prices increased 0.4%, used vehicle prices rose 0.7%, while airfares dropped a further 0.9% and apparel prices also fell 0.9%.Source…

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”.  This is not a forecast as such, because real Crashes are rare and these set-ups can appear without the worst happening.  However, the bull market wave patterns which began pre-2010 are ending; some US and (many?) global indices have probably already rolled over into bear markets.  If we have indeed correctly read the patterns, it won’t be like 1987, more like Q3 1937, or perhaps Summer 2002 - a persistent decline of about 20% from June’s highs to below SPX 2,250 - although that may not be the full extent of the bear market.  So this is really more of an alert to think about what you would do if you find prices sliding through support you thought would hold.

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Status Quo Fed Policy Statement

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.75%–2.0% today (the vote was...

RDQ Economics

Fed Chairman Powell’s Semiannual Testimony Before Congress

Fed Chairman Powell delivered the first leg of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy and the economy before the Senate Banking Committee this...

RDQ Economics

Don’t Fight The Fedsssssssss….World Money Is Too Tight

This old Wall Street adage should be writ large across traders screens and read in plurals, because its not just the US Federal Reserve that is...

Michael J. Howell

U.S. Inflation Continues to Grind Higher

Core CPI prices rose 0.2% in June, as expected, and the year-over-year core CPI inflation rate picked up to 2.3% from 2.2%. Both owners’...

RDQ Economics

S&P 500: What Are the Odds of a Crash?

The right configuration for some sort of a Crash is in place, so the answer is “much higher than normal”. This is not a forecast as such, because...

Peter Beuttell

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