Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

Nonfarm payrolls fell 33,000 in September.  The Labor Department said “the net effect of these hurricanes [in Texas and Florida] was to reduce the estimate of” payrolls, but did not quantify the impact.  However, leisure payrolls—which have a higher share of employment in Florida than the national average—plunged 111,000 and there were 1.5 million people not at work due to “bad weather” in September.  Thus, while we cannot quantify the impact, it is clear that September payrolls were severely…

Nonfarm payrolls fell 33,000 in September.  The Labor Department said “the net effect of these hurricanes [in Texas and Florida] was to reduce the estimate of” payrolls, but did not quantify the impact.  However, leisure payrolls—which have a higher share of employment in Florida than the national average—plunged 111,000 and there were 1.5 million people not at work due to “bad weather” in September.  Thus, while we cannot quantify the impact, it is clear that September payrolls were severely…

September U.S. Employment—Hurricane Effects, Wages Rising

President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he has held four meetings to discuss who will be Fed Chair after the expiration of Janet Yellen’s term on February 3, 2018 and said he will make a decision over the next two to three weeks.  It has been reported in the media that the current candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Jerome Powell, National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn and Fed Chair Janet Yellen, but that meetings with additional candidates are…

President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he has held four meetings to discuss who will be Fed Chair after the expiration of Janet Yellen’s term on February 3, 2018 and said he will make a decision over the next two to three weeks.  It has been reported in the media that the current candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Jerome Powell, National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn and Fed Chair Janet Yellen, but that meetings with additional candidates are…

“We should recognize that past efforts to strengthen capital positions and the financial infrastructure place the global financial system in a relative strong position to work through this process.”Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Opening Remarks at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Symposium, August 31, 2007“Substantial progress has been made toward the Federal Reserve's economic objectives of maximum employment and price stability, in putting in place a regulatory and supervisory structure that is well…

“We should recognize that past efforts to strengthen capital positions and the financial infrastructure place the global financial system in a relative strong position to work through this process.”Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Opening Remarks at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Symposium, August 31, 2007“Substantial progress has been made toward the Federal Reserve's economic objectives of maximum employment and price stability, in putting in place a regulatory and supervisory structure that is well…

Financial Stability Risks and Other Under-Recognized Costs of Easy Monetary Policy

The Unified Framework for Fixing Our Broken Tax Code was released this week and the highlights on the corporate side included a 20% corporate tax rate, expensing of capital equipment for the next five years, a partial elimination of the deductibility of interest, and eliminating the taxation of overseas profits (subject to some tweaks for tax havens).  On the personal side, the proposal is for three tax brackets of 12%/25%/35% versus the current seven brackets, the elimination of the state and…

The Unified Framework for Fixing Our Broken Tax Code was released this week and the highlights on the corporate side included a 20% corporate tax rate, expensing of capital equipment for the next five years, a partial elimination of the deductibility of interest, and eliminating the taxation of overseas profits (subject to some tweaks for tax havens).  On the personal side, the proposal is for three tax brackets of 12%/25%/35% versus the current seven brackets, the elimination of the state and…

U.S. Tax Policy Proposals: Principles and Potential Impacts

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

The long term hiking cycle from the FED is in progress, but uncertainties regarding its pace are not lifted yet.In terms of technicals, 10y <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22878" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22878:1">United States Treasury (T GOVT)</a> graphical elements have confirmed further upside move, mathematical indicators not yet.2,40% will act as the risk level to surpass to open a larger rise in yields towards 2,63% even 2,80% and to consider 2,00% as the true bottom for the months to come.2,1550% is the level of a potential setback below 2,40% before any new rise.…

The long term hiking cycle from the FED is in progress, but uncertainties regarding its pace are not lifted yet.In terms of technicals, 10y United States Treasury (T GOVT) graphical elements have confirmed further upside move, mathematical indicators not yet.2,40% will act as the risk level to surpass to open a larger rise in yields towards 2,63% even 2,80% and to consider 2,00% as the true bottom for the months to come.2,1550% is the level of a potential setback below 2,40% before any new rise.…

US Yield 10y (USGG10YR) – Long Term Rise Confirmed

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

September U.S. Employment—Hurricane Effects, Wages Rising

Nonfarm payrolls fell 33,000 in September. The Labor Department said “the net effect of these hurricanes [in Texas and Florida] was to reduce the...

RDQ Economics

Thoughts on the Next Fed Chair

President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he has held four meetings to discuss who will be Fed Chair after the expiration of Janet Yellen’s...

RDQ Economics

Financial Stability Risks and Other Under-Recognized Costs of Easy Monetary Policy

“We should recognize that past efforts to strengthen capital positions and the financial infrastructure place the global financial system in a...

RDQ Economics

U.S. Tax Policy Proposals: Principles and Potential Impacts

The Unified Framework for Fixing Our Broken Tax Code was released this week and the highlights on the corporate side included a 20% corporate tax...

RDQ Economics

US Yield 10y (USGG10YR) – Long Term Rise Confirmed

The long term hiking cycle from the FED is in progress, but uncertainties regarding its pace are not lifted yet.In terms of technicals, 10y United...

Guillaume Coutant

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