Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

U.S. real GDP rose 2.6% at an annual rate in the second quarter, which was slightly below forecasts.  Over the last four quarters real GDP increased 2.1% versus 2.0% on this basis in the prior quarter.Real consumer spending rose 2.8% in the quarter and real business fixed investment increased 5.2% (with equipment spending up 8.2% and nonresidential structures investment up 4.9%).  Residential investment dropped 6.8% on a plunge in “other structures,” which includes brokers’ commissions (the…

U.S. real GDP rose 2.6% at an annual rate in the second quarter, which was slightly below forecasts.  Over the last four quarters real GDP increased 2.1% versus 2.0% on this basis in the prior quarter.Real consumer spending rose 2.8% in the quarter and real business fixed investment increased 5.2% (with equipment spending up 8.2% and nonresidential structures investment up 4.9%).  Residential investment dropped 6.8% on a plunge in “other structures,” which includes brokers’ commissions (the…

A Quick Note on the First Release of Q2 GDP for the U.S.

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate unchanged at 1.00%–1.25% today.  The policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined” (in the June statement, job gains were said to “have moderated”).  The vote today was unanimous.On inflation, the Fed noted “On…

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate unchanged at 1.00%–1.25% today.  The policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined” (in the June statement, job gains were said to “have moderated”).  The vote today was unanimous.On inflation, the Fed noted “On…

Fed Left Rates Unchanged But Said Balance Sheet Normalization To Begin "Relatively Soon"

Fed Chair Yellen delivered the first leg of her semiannual testimony on monetary to Congress on Wednesday.  Yellen was upbeat on the labor market saying it “has continued to strengthen” and job gains are “well above the pace we estimate would be sufficient, on average, to provide jobs for new entrants to the labor force.”  On the broader economy, Yellen said consumer spending growth “has picked up in recent months … supported by job gains, rising household wealth, and favorable consumer…

Fed Chair Yellen delivered the first leg of her semiannual testimony on monetary to Congress on Wednesday.  Yellen was upbeat on the labor market saying it “has continued to strengthen” and job gains are “well above the pace we estimate would be sufficient, on average, to provide jobs for new entrants to the labor force.”  On the broader economy, Yellen said consumer spending growth “has picked up in recent months … supported by job gains, rising household wealth, and favorable consumer…

Yellen and Brainard on Fed Policy Normalization

Our forecast of higher bond yields in 2017 was looking questionable in late June as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to a low of 2.14% on June 26.  Whether this was due to a reduction in fears about larger deficits (part of the fading of the Trump trade) or an easing in core consumer inflation, a case could be made that both factors might support lower bond yields.  Today, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.38%, hopes or fears of a sub-2% yield seem more distant.  Higher inflation…

Our forecast of higher bond yields in 2017 was looking questionable in late June as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to a low of 2.14% on June 26.  Whether this was due to a reduction in fears about larger deficits (part of the fading of the Trump trade) or an easing in core consumer inflation, a case could be made that both factors might support lower bond yields.  Today, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.38%, hopes or fears of a sub-2% yield seem more distant.  Higher inflation…

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

US non-farm payrolls (NFP) exceeded expectations in June, rising by 222,000 (versus expectations of 179,000) and the numbers for May and April were revised up to 152,000 (from 138K) and 207,000 (from 174K), completing the picture of a robust economy in 2Q 2017 -- with monthly gains of 193,667 in NFPs during the quarter (ahead of the average gains of 186,000 in 2016, and much better than the 166,000 of average monthly increases in NFPs during 1Q 2017; there is undoubtedly an element of…

US non-farm payrolls (NFP) exceeded expectations in June, rising by 222,000 (versus expectations of 179,000) and the numbers for May and April were revised up to 152,000 (from 138K) and 207,000 (from 174K), completing the picture of a robust economy in 2Q 2017 -- with monthly gains of 193,667 in NFPs during the quarter (ahead of the average gains of 186,000 in 2016, and much better than the 166,000 of average monthly increases in NFPs during 1Q 2017; there is undoubtedly an element of…

NFP Gives the Green Light for Globally Concerted Tightening, Despite Persistent Disinflation

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A Quick Note on the First Release of Q2 GDP for the U.S.

U.S. real GDP rose 2.6% at an annual rate in the second quarter, which was slightly below forecasts. Over the last four quarters real GDP...

RDQ Economics

Fed Left Rates Unchanged But Said Balance Sheet Normalization To Begin "Relatively Soon"

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate unchanged at 1.00%–1.25% today. The policy statement noted “the...

RDQ Economics

Yellen and Brainard on Fed Policy Normalization

Fed Chair Yellen delivered the first leg of her semiannual testimony on monetary to Congress on Wednesday. Yellen was upbeat on the labor market...

RDQ Economics

What's Bugging Bonds?

Our forecast of higher bond yields in 2017 was looking questionable in late June as the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to a low of 2.14% on June...

RDQ Economics

NFP Gives the Green Light for Globally Concerted Tightening, Despite Persistent Disinflation

US non-farm payrolls (NFP) exceeded expectations in June, rising by 222,000 (versus expectations of 179,000) and the numbers for May and April were...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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