Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hi everybody and welcome to this week’s 5 Things We Watch.</li><li>This week we’ll cover Euro-flation on the back of the Ifo numbers dropping this week.</li><li>Then we’ll have a look at the inflation outlook in the US using the same metrics as applied to Europe.</li></ul>

Hi everybody and welcome to this week’s 5 Things We Watch.This week we’ll cover Euro-flation on the back of the Ifo numbers dropping this week.Then we’ll have a look at the inflation outlook in the US using the same metrics as applied to Europe.

5 Things We Watch: US & Europe inflation, OPEC, Shipping, Bitcoin boom

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The real-time market cap of gold is USD 15 trillion, not USD 13 trillion, as is often stated.</li>
<li>This matters because I expect gold to gain on and outperform bonds within a multi-asset portfolio. In recent years, this has been the case.</li>
<li>A real-time estimate of gold's market cap also translates to a real-time Bitcoin price estimate as it functions as digital gold. In this piece, I show my base case scenario.</li>
</ul>


The real-time market cap of gold is USD 15 trillion, not USD 13 trillion, as is often stated.
This matters because I expect gold to gain on and outperform bonds within a multi-asset portfolio. In recent years, this has been the case.
A real-time estimate of gold's market cap also translates to a real-time Bitcoin price estimate as it functions as digital gold. In this piece, I show my base case scenario.


A Real-Time Estimate of Gold's Market Cap and Bitcoin's Potential Value

<ul><li>We have been banging the drum on a potential sharp gap opening between inflation trends in the US and in Germany (or the Euro zone).</li><li>The market has slowly but surely started to acknowledge the trend, but we continue to see traded inflation spreads as vastly mispriced given the forward looking indicators on inflation.</li><li>The IFO survey details from Germany made for very benign inflation reading as price expectations decline in manufacturing, autos and metal and not least SERVICES.</li></ul>

We have been banging the drum on a potential sharp gap opening between inflation trends in the US and in Germany (or the Euro zone).The market has slowly but surely started to acknowledge the trend, but we continue to see traded inflation spreads as vastly mispriced given the forward looking indicators on inflation.The IFO survey details from Germany made for very benign inflation reading as price expectations decline in manufacturing, autos and metal and not least SERVICES.

Macro Nugget: MAJOR tradeable gap opening between Germany and the US

<ul><li>It seems like no one is willing to add bets on rate cuts in H1 after even the doves from the ECB and the Fed have been hard to convince of spring action lately.</li><li>G3 central bankers have been on parade with messages around the risks of easing prematurely after watching the cocktail of 1) higher freight rates, 2) sticky wages and 3) easing financial conditions, especially in the US.</li><li>We have seen front-end back paddling in rates space ever since New Years accordingly and the almost bizarre uniformity in views and positioning has been blown into pieces in a matter of weeks.</li></ul>

It seems like no one is willing to add bets on rate cuts in H1 after even the doves from the ECB and the Fed have been hard to convince of spring action lately.G3 central bankers have been on parade with messages around the risks of easing prematurely after watching the cocktail of 1) higher freight rates, 2) sticky wages and 3) easing financial conditions, especially in the US.We have seen front-end back paddling in rates space ever since New Years accordingly and the almost bizarre uniformity in views and positioning has been blown into pieces in a matter of weeks.

Steno Signals #88: Anyone left willing to bet on rate cuts in H1?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

5 Things We Watch: US & Europe inflation, OPEC, Shipping, Bitcoin boom

Hi everybody and welcome to this week’s 5 Things We Watch. This week we’ll cover Euro-flation on the back of the Ifo numbers dropping this...

Steno Research

A Real-Time Estimate of Gold's Market Cap and Bitcoin's Potential Value

My real-time estimate of gold's market capitalization is USD 15+ trillion, leaving a Bitcoin price target of USD 140-170K.

Jeroen Blokland

Macro Nugget: MAJOR tradeable gap opening between Germany and the US

We have been banging the drum on a potential sharp gap opening between inflation trends in the US and in Germany (or the Euro zone). The market...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #88: Anyone left willing to bet on rate cuts in H1?

It seems like no one is willing to add bets on rate cuts in H1 after even the doves from the ECB and the Fed have been hard to convince of spring...

Steno Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)