Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from the BLS swiftly dispelled any lingering dovish sentiment that had survived the recent NFP announcement.</li>
<li>We’ve analyzed both the CPI data (see here) and the current labor market in detail (see here), and although there are signs of cooling, it’s difficult to counter the recent adjustments in the OIS curve.</li>
<li>This suggests that USD assets remain the focal point, and for the foreseeable future, EM macro strategies should lean towards spread/receiving rather than expecting an NVDA-like bull run in equities</li>
</ul>


Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from the BLS swiftly dispelled any lingering dovish sentiment that had survived the recent NFP announcement.
We’ve analyzed both the CPI data (see here) and the current labor market in detail (see here), and although there are signs of cooling, it’s difficult to counter the recent adjustments in the OIS curve.
This suggests that USD assets remain the focal point, and for the foreseeable future, EM macro strategies should lean towards spread/receiving rather than expecting an NVDA-like bull run in equities


Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.</li>
<li>For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.</li>
<li>Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.</li>
</ul>


Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.
For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.
Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.


Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>I have four major worries around the current macro setup. The long consensus in bond positioning is worrisome paired with rising energy prices</li>
<li>The lack of reliability of recession forecasts and the relationship to Manufacturing</li>
<li>Germany being a nation-wide Nokia case despite falling input prices</li>
</ul>


I have four major worries around the current macro setup. The long consensus in bond positioning is worrisome paired with rising energy prices
The lack of reliability of recession forecasts and the relationship to Manufacturing
Germany being a nation-wide Nokia case despite falling input prices


Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worries me the most in global macro right now

<ul><li>We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.</li><li>Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.</li><li>Are international investors even involved in China anymore?</li></ul>

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.Are international investors even involved in China anymore?

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Funding pressures have been gradually increasing due to various factors such as a new easing cycle by the Fed, rebuilding of tga, and QT draining liquidity from the system.</li><li>Money funds began extending duration and shifting balances, leading to evidence of funding pressures in September which intensified in October.</li><li>Funding markets are becoming more sensitive to incremental collateral adds and repo markets are operating with more frictions, impacting the effectiveness of SRF operations in redistributing reserves and controlling repo rates.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Funding pressures have been gradually increasing due to various factors such as a new easing cycle by the Fed, rebuilding of tga, and QT draining liquidity from the system.Money funds began extending duration and shifting balances, leading to evidence of funding pressures in September which intensified in October.Funding markets are becoming more sensitive to incremental collateral adds and repo markets are operating with more frictions, impacting the effectiveness of SRF operations in redistributing reserves and controlling repo rates.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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EM by EM #43: Rand’s Reckoning?

Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from...

Steno Research

Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Taking an in-depth look at previous Bitcoin halvings by taking them out of isolation by adding economic and market circumstances: Why Spot Bitcoin...

Jeroen Blokland

Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worries me the most in global macro right now

I have four major worries around the current macro setup. The long consensus in bond positioning is worrisome paired with rising energy prices

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate. Positioning in CNY markets...

Steno Research

At Any Rate: Of funding and refundings

JP Morgan experts discuss recent funding pressures, including increasing Fed funds rates, repo market moves, and factors like Fed easing cycle and...

At Any Rate

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