Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from the BLS swiftly dispelled any lingering dovish sentiment that had survived the recent NFP announcement.</li>
<li>We’ve analyzed both the CPI data (see here) and the current labor market in detail (see here), and although there are signs of cooling, it’s difficult to counter the recent adjustments in the OIS curve.</li>
<li>This suggests that USD assets remain the focal point, and for the foreseeable future, EM macro strategies should lean towards spread/receiving rather than expecting an NVDA-like bull run in equities</li>
</ul>


Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from the BLS swiftly dispelled any lingering dovish sentiment that had survived the recent NFP announcement.
We’ve analyzed both the CPI data (see here) and the current labor market in detail (see here), and although there are signs of cooling, it’s difficult to counter the recent adjustments in the OIS curve.
This suggests that USD assets remain the focal point, and for the foreseeable future, EM macro strategies should lean towards spread/receiving rather than expecting an NVDA-like bull run in equities


Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.</li>
<li>For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.</li>
<li>Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.</li>
</ul>


Even though the number of observations is limited, we believe looking at the broader picture surrounding previous Bitcoin halvings provides valuable insights.
For example, all previous halvings occurred during equity bull markets, modest GDP growth, mild inflation, and easy or easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. Similar circumstances are on the horizon.
Declining Bitcoin supply, because of the halving and the rise of long-term investors, combined with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs will likely become this halving's catalyst.


Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Inflation shocks have become more frequent.  Central banks will show greater commitment to their chosen inflation targets, and forward guidance will no longer determine the future path of policy rates.</li>
<li>More proactive measures by central banks to keep inflationary expectations well-anchored implies more volatile short-term interest rates compared to their long-term counterparts in an environment of higher and volatile inflation.</li>
<li>US Treasury bond investors will probably demand a higher term premium until they are comfortable with the Fed's policy reaction function under new leadership without forward guidance.</li>
</ul>


Inflation shocks have become more frequent.  Central banks will show greater commitment to their chosen inflation targets, and forward guidance will no longer determine the future path of policy rates.
More proactive measures by central banks to keep inflationary expectations well-anchored implies more volatile short-term interest rates compared to their long-term counterparts in an environment of higher and volatile inflation.
US Treasury bond investors will probably demand a higher term premium until they are comfortable with the Fed's policy reaction function under new leadership without forward guidance.


New Era of Higher Inflation Volatility Forces Central Bank Policy Conduct Reset

Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Every single day there is another signal that the money printer is warming up, we see it in higher rates, bigger deficits, and now in some outlandish promises.</li><li>The president’s speech on September 9th night in Dallas gave us the loudest one yet.</li><li>Here is what was said At the Republican midterm convention, Donald Trump promised a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult US citizen, on two conditions: Republicans have to hold both the House and the Senate in November and the money would have to be spent inside the US.</li></ul>

Every single day there is another signal that the money printer is warming up, we see it in higher rates, bigger deficits, and now in some outlandish promises.The president’s speech on September 9th night in Dallas gave us the loudest one yet.Here is what was said At the Republican midterm convention, Donald Trump promised a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult US citizen, on two conditions: Republicans have to hold both the House and the Senate in November and the money would have to be spent inside the US.

LIT ALERT: The $5,000 Bribe & How To Protect Your Portfolio

<ul>
<li>The premium that bond investors are willing to pay for US Treasury securities has fallen since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic due to concerns about monetary and fiscal policy.</li>
<li>Quantitative easing (QE) by the Fed and below-target inflation persuaded US politicians not to end profligate fiscal policy conduct. QE has sobering legacy issues involving rising inflation and government debt.</li>
<li>Bond investors and US policymakers disagree about the pricing of Treasury securities as bad fiscal policy conduct is being increasingly factored into valuations as investors seek appropriate price discovery.</li>
</ul>


The premium that bond investors are willing to pay for US Treasury securities has fallen since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic due to concerns about monetary and fiscal policy.
Quantitative easing (QE) by the Fed and below-target inflation persuaded US politicians not to end profligate fiscal policy conduct. QE has sobering legacy issues involving rising inflation and government debt.
Bond investors and US policymakers disagree about the pricing of Treasury securities as bad fiscal policy conduct is being increasingly factored into valuations as investors seek appropriate price discovery.


US Treasuries: The Battle for Price Discovery Versus Financial Repression

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

EM by EM #43: Rand’s Reckoning?

Just as the markets were speculating about which spring month would see the first Fed rate cut of the cycle, a surprisingly high CPI report from...

Steno Research

Taking the Bitcoin Halvings Out of Isolation

Taking an in-depth look at previous Bitcoin halvings by taking them out of isolation by adding economic and market circumstances: Why Spot Bitcoin...

Jeroen Blokland

New Era of Higher Inflation Volatility Forces Central Bank Policy Conduct Reset

Inflation volatility has been boosted by a series of supply shocks. Central banks will be forced to shock real intent on adhering to inflation...

DeSaque Macro Research

LIT ALERT: The $5,000 Bribe & How To Protect Your Portfolio

Every single day there is another signal that the money printer is warming up, we see it in higher rates, bigger deficits, and now in some...

Marc Rudajev

US Treasuries: The Battle for Price Discovery Versus Financial Repression

Bondholders are no longer willing to pay a large premium for US Treasuries due to rising concerns about fiscal sustainability. Investors and...

DeSaque Macro Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)