Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.</li>
<li>Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.</li>
<li>We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.</li>
</ul>


After the latest data, our earnings bellwether is back to zero, suggesting company earnings may be off the hook for big declines. That would be different this time.
Our Fair Value estimate of the 10-year US Treasury is dropping like a stone, yet the gap with the actual yield remains strikingly large. ‘term premium aficionados’ are likely wrong.
We look at a bunch of US housing and consumer data and must conclude that the odds of an imminent recession are shrinking.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

<ul>
<li>2024 will bring an environment of a grand-scale rebalancing of multi-asset portfolios. And the latest headline-making remarks on US government debt from China confirm this.</li>
<li>China wants to diversify its foreign reserves further. With relatively stable foreign currency reserves, this suggests the selling of US Treasuries, which would be different from what we have seen.</li>
<li>A significant part of the diversification of foreign reserves will likely end up with gold. China has been, by far, the biggest buyer of gold over the last two years.</li>
</ul>


2024 will bring an environment of a grand-scale rebalancing of multi-asset portfolios. And the latest headline-making remarks on US government debt from China confirm this.
China wants to diversify its foreign reserves further. With relatively stable foreign currency reserves, this suggests the selling of US Treasuries, which would be different from what we have seen.
A significant part of the diversification of foreign reserves will likely end up with gold. China has been, by far, the biggest buyer of gold over the last two years.


The Great Portfolio Rebalance Will Accelerate in 2024: Part 1 – China Wants Less US Debt

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.</li>
<li>The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.</li>
</ul>


China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.
The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator - 200-day moving averages - looks prettier every day.


The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.</li><li>I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.</li><li>The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.</li></ul>

USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Bye-Bye OPEC, Hello Liquidity, and Welcome Back Earnings!

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

The Great Portfolio Rebalance Will Accelerate in 2024: Part 1 – China Wants Less US Debt

China wants to further diversify its foreign reserve holdings, which likely means less US Treasuries and more Gold buying.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There's Jay Powell!

China is throwing more liquidity at its real estate sector to save it. Powell is the new top dove while Europe struggles.

Jeroen Blokland

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

We reiterate that the steepener trade is the best risk/reward in Macro space accordingly as it likes both (fat) tail scenarios.

Steno Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

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