Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

With the market speculating on whether or not there will be hints on tapering when the FOMC decision is announced later today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

With the market speculating on whether or not there will be hints on tapering when the FOMC decision is announced later today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to see signs of improving risk appetites alongside healthy market dynamics. As a result, our outlook remains constructive. A breakout to new highs in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), above $234.50 and $159, would likely cause us to shift to an outright bullish stance. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Health Care.

We continue to see signs of improving risk appetites alongside healthy market dynamics. As a result, our outlook remains constructive. A breakout to new highs in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), above $234.50 and $159, would likely cause us to shift to an outright bullish stance. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Health Care.

U.S. Yields Testing Support Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

US 10yr yield bear call in March is nearing our key downside target that was at 1.35% and now raised to 1.37% given the time translation rise in trendline support. DXY has held lows and needs to push through 90.50/70 to challenge bigger resistance at 91.70/92.A break below 1.37% trendline support on a sustained basis would be a game changer for the yield trend (lower toward 1.20%) but more importantly would deflate USD support. We are betting trendline support initially holds and will help a tactical USD bounce cycle.Euro secondary failure at 1.22 is important.Risk red flags: AUD and NZD top caps and bear impulse raises risk red flags ahead of the late June risk turn cycle (weaker seasonality for US equities).

US 10yr yield bear call in March is nearing our key downside target that was at 1.35% and now raised to 1.37% given the time translation rise in trendline support. DXY has held lows and needs to push through 90.50/70 to challenge bigger resistance at 91.70/92.A break below 1.37% trendline support on a sustained basis would be a game changer for the yield trend (lower toward 1.20%) but more importantly would deflate USD support. We are betting trendline support initially holds and will help a tactical USD bounce cycle.Euro secondary failure at 1.22 is important.Risk red flags: AUD and NZD top caps and bear impulse raises risk red flags ahead of the late June risk turn cycle (weaker seasonality for US equities).

US 10yr Yield Support Will Define the USD

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we list the current trade recommendations that we make on a weekly basis and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 15 trade recommendations so far, of which 11 are in the money.

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we list the current trade recommendations that we make on a weekly basis and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 15 trade recommendations so far, of which 11 are in the money.

Alpha Bites: Monthly Trade Ideas Recap – Jun 2021

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

FX Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

Ahead of the FOMC decision today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

U.S. Yields Testing Support Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

We continue to see signs of improving risk appetites alongside healthy market dynamics. As a result, our outlook remains constructive.

Vermilion Research

US 10yr Yield Support Will Define the USD

US 10yr yield bear call in March is nearing our key downside target near 1.37% trendline support. DXY has held lows and needs to push through 90.50...

Thomas Schroeder

Alpha Bites: Monthly Trade Ideas Recap – Jun 2021

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we list our current recommendations and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 15...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)