Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

The attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

The attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

Are there fresh signs in markets that we are indeed going through a short-term wobble?
A close look at US yields and interest rate curves as well as the Gold price reveals that there is indeed some pain ahead before we settle into what is ultimately a bullish trend in equities.

Are there fresh signs in markets that we are indeed going through a short-term wobble?
A close look at US yields and interest rate curves as well as the Gold price reveals that there is indeed some pain ahead before we settle into what is ultimately a bullish trend in equities.

The last time we saw a major market panic, before Covid, and subsequent delivery of aggressive economic policies - largely monetary - was in 2009. Remarkably, the stock market performance since March 2020 has been very similar to 2009-2010. What indication does this comparison offer today? The answer is "some short term pain and some long term gain". In addition there are other indications across Oil, Bonds, the USD and in Asia South Korea which further supports this thesis.

The last time we saw a major market panic, before Covid, and subsequent delivery of aggressive economic policies - largely monetary - was in 2009. Remarkably, the stock market performance since March 2020 has been very similar to 2009-2010. What indication does this comparison offer today? The answer is "some short term pain and some long term gain". In addition there are other indications across Oil, Bonds, the USD and in Asia South Korea which further supports this thesis. 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight actionable opportunities within our Manufacturing, Transportation, Materials, Technology, &amp; Consumer Discretionary Sectors.

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight actionable opportunities within our Manufacturing, Transportation, Materials, Technology, &amp; Consumer Discretionary Sectors.

Yesterday’s break below 3425 short-term support in the S&amp;P 500 opens the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200, two important support levels we are watching moving forward. With that said, as long as 3200 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. At the same time, small-caps are providing a risk-on signal with the Russell 2000 (IWM) still holding above $159 short-term support. Leadership from small-caps is something we would expect to see in a broad-based bull market, and if IWM is above $159 it is hard to get too bearish overall.

Yesterday’s break below 3425 short-term support in the S&amp;P 500 opens the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200, two important support levels we are watching moving forward. With that said, as long as 3200 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. At the same time, small-caps are providing a risk-on signal with the Russell 2000 (IWM) still holding above $159 short-term support. Leadership from small-caps is something we would expect to see in a broad-based bull market, and if IWM is above $159 it is hard to get too bearish overall.

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Rates 10y Dashboard - Feb 1, 2021

Attached is the daily Rates 10y Dashboard that highlights dislocations in EM 10y rates markets with the objective of identifying the leaders and...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Bonds & Gold Ready for a Bounce

A bounce in Bonds and Gold could be seen as a short term warning sign for equities in this market - still a time for caution ahead of better...

Shyam Devani

The Pain and the Gain in Equities and FX

New year celebrations are over and there are bumps along the road for Equity and USD trends - beware we are going over one now.

Shyam Devani

U.S. Equity Strategy: Remain Bullish

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Market Sending Mixed Signals

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Health Care, & Services

Vermilion Research

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