Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as usual will dive into positioning and sentiment data to provide you with the latest overview of crowded trades and where the markets are leaning.</li><li>This week we dig into how the rise of volatility (and volatility of volatility) has affected market positioning, if the recent weakness in equities has shaken around positioning (hint: it has) and the recent developments in rates pricing, where the outcome space for the DEC2024 SOFR contract has turned significantly more uniform in hawks’ favor.</li><li>The VIX recently woke up after a long period of being range-bound between 12.5 and 15, surging on the back of weakness in equities as tax payments have been due in April combined with a slightly hotter than expected CPI report and hawkish remarks from Powell.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as usual will dive into positioning and sentiment data to provide you with the latest overview of crowded trades and where the markets are leaning.This week we dig into how the rise of volatility (and volatility of volatility) has affected market positioning, if the recent weakness in equities has shaken around positioning (hint: it has) and the recent developments in rates pricing, where the outcome space for the DEC2024 SOFR contract has turned significantly more uniform in hawks’ favor.The VIX recently woke up after a long period of being range-bound between 12.5 and 15, surging on the back of weakness in equities as tax payments have been due in April combined with a slightly hotter than expected CPI report and hawkish remarks from Powell.

Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Inflation data has been hotter than expected, remaining stubbornly above 3%</li><li>Demand in the economy has been robust, with strong retail sales and job reports</li><li>Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discusses potential factors influencing inflation and the need for offsetting housing strength in the economy</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Inflation data has been hotter than expected, remaining stubbornly above 3%Demand in the economy has been robust, with strong retail sales and job reportsRichmond Fed President Tom Barkin discusses potential factors influencing inflation and the need for offsetting housing strength in the economyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin On Getting Inflation Under Control

<ul><li>Headlines in the beginning of 2024 were dominated by shipping and logistic troubles but over the last months that has almost died completely down.</li><li>With “no news” we continue to see spill-overs to goods inflation in coming months.</li><li>In general freight rates have been falling since Jan high but still remain some 50% above 2023 levels</li></ul>

Headlines in the beginning of 2024 were dominated by shipping and logistic troubles but over the last months that has almost died completely down.With “no news” we continue to see spill-overs to goods inflation in coming months.In general freight rates have been falling since Jan high but still remain some 50% above 2023 levels

Shipping Watch: No news is bad news (for inflation)

<ul><li>Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors.</li><li>Powell’s remarks from yesterday confirmed fears of the Fed deviating from their promised rate cuts back in December, and the question will now be, whether they will cut rates at all.</li><li>A pivot from a pivot is tough, but it might be exactly what’s going to happen.</li></ul>

Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors.Powell’s remarks from yesterday confirmed fears of the Fed deviating from their promised rate cuts back in December, and the question will now be, whether they will cut rates at all.A pivot from a pivot is tough, but it might be exactly what’s going to happen.

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Bond Positioning, Equities Setback, USD Wrecking Ball...

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as usual will dive into positioning and sentiment data to provide you...

Steno Research

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin On Getting Inflation Under Control

Flexible financing program at Netsuite.com, special Odd Lots podcast episode with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discussing robust demand and...

Odd Lots

Shipping Watch: No news is bad news (for inflation)

Headlines in the beginning of 2024 were dominated by shipping and logistic troubles but over the last months that has almost died completely...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Rates Pricing, Bond Positioning, Equities Setback, USD Wrecking Ball...

Macro is truly back with central banks and pricing of policy rates back on the top priority list amongst traders and investors. Powell’s remarks...

Steno Research

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

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