Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Universal Music Group NV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • DSM-Firmenich | post earnings call comment • Magnum Ince Cream Co | post earnings call comment • Shell | 2Q26 result is the second best on record; new USD 3bn share buyback • Shell | agreement to sell BG Cyprus Ltd to MOL Group for up to USD 720m • Universal Music Group | soft 26Q2 performance recording marked decrease in profitability • Corbion | 26Q2 results ahead of expectations – finetunes FY26 adjusted EBITDA margin downward • Fugro | no longer expects FY26 margins to improve</li></ul>

In this edition: • DSM-Firmenich | post earnings call comment • Magnum Ince Cream Co | post earnings call comment • Shell | 2Q26 result is the second best on record; new USD 3bn share buyback • Shell | agreement to sell BG Cyprus Ltd to MOL Group for up to USD 720m • Universal Music Group | soft 26Q2 performance recording marked decrease in profitability • Corbion | 26Q2 results ahead of expectations – finetunes FY26 adjusted EBITDA margin downward • Fugro | no longer expects FY26 margins to improve

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> has been active since the start of the year in selling down some of its stake in its investee companies to raise over US$3.3bn cash.</li>
<li>Tencent did report a negative free cash flow quarter in 2Q26. Given the elevated spending, it might look to sell some more of its stakes.</li>
<li>Tencent owned over US$66bn worth of shares in over 39 companies, with the bulk of it stemming from US, US-HK listed and overseas listed companies.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) has been active since the start of the year in selling down some of its stake in its investee companies to raise over US$3.3bn cash.
Tencent did report a negative free cash flow quarter in 2Q26. Given the elevated spending, it might look to sell some more of its stakes.
Tencent owned over US$66bn worth of shares in over 39 companies, with the bulk of it stemming from US, US-HK listed and overseas listed companies.


Aequitas: Tencent Investee Selldown - Start of Another US$70bn Selldown Wave

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Pershing Square has exited its entire UMG position following the rejection of its takeover proposal, reducing transaction optionality but removing a significant shareholder overhang that had weighed on the stock.</li>
<li>UMG repurchased €250m of shares at €17.66, providing a clear indication of management’s willingness to allocate capital at current levels and partially absorbing Pershing’s disposal.</li>
<li>The investment case now rests on standalone value realization rather than a transaction, supported by buybacks, strong fundamentals, and a cleaner shareholder structure following Pershing’s exit.</li>
</ul>


Pershing Square has exited its entire UMG position following the rejection of its takeover proposal, reducing transaction optionality but removing a significant shareholder overhang that had weighed on the stock.
UMG repurchased €250m of shares at €17.66, providing a clear indication of management’s willingness to allocate capital at current levels and partially absorbing Pershing’s disposal.
The investment case now rests on standalone value realization rather than a transaction, supported by buybacks, strong fundamentals, and a cleaner shareholder structure following Pershing’s exit.


Universal Music: Pershing Sells, UMG Buys

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams no longer pursue joint takeover plan • Universal Music Group | Pershing Square plans to divest its stake • Unilever | Fernández robustly defends the deal with McCormick despite upheaval • Dutch housing market | ‘code yellow’ based on early signals TU’s housing market monitor • E-commerce & Logistics | DHL study shows rising share of OOH deliveries</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams no longer pursue joint takeover plan • Universal Music Group | Pershing Square plans to divest its stake • Unilever | Fernández robustly defends the deal with McCormick despite upheaval • Dutch housing market | ‘code yellow’ based on early signals TU’s housing market monitor • E-commerce & Logistics | DHL study shows rising share of OOH deliveries

Universal Music Group NV - What's News in Amsterdam

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Pershing Square’s €30.40 proposal for Universal Music Group represents a value-unlocking intervention targeting listing, capital structure, and shareholder overhang, but remains non-binding with significant execution risk and uncertain shareholder alignment.</li>
<li>The flexible cash-and-stock structure is designed to accommodate key stakeholders, particularly Bolloré and Vivendi, highlighting that transaction feasibility depends more on shareholder alignment than headline valuation.</li>
<li>The situation offers a constructive event-driven setup, with upside driven by multiple catalysts including transaction, rerating, or structural change, while downside appears supported by strong fundamentals and resilient CF generation.</li>
</ul>


Pershing Square’s €30.40 proposal for Universal Music Group represents a value-unlocking intervention targeting listing, capital structure, and shareholder overhang, but remains non-binding with significant execution risk and uncertain shareholder alignment.
The flexible cash-and-stock structure is designed to accommodate key stakeholders, particularly Bolloré and Vivendi, highlighting that transaction feasibility depends more on shareholder alignment than headline valuation.
The situation offers a constructive event-driven setup, with upside driven by multiple catalysts including transaction, rerating, or structural change, while downside appears supported by strong fundamentals and resilient CF generation.


Universal Music: Changing the Tune - Pershing’s Bid Forces a Re-Rating Debate

Netherlands

Universal Music Group N.V. operates as an entertainment company. The Company produces and distributes music contents. Universal Music Group serves customers worldwide.

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Universal Music Group NV (UMG NA)

What's News in Amsterdam - 31 July (dsm-firmenich | MICC | Shell | UMG | Corbion | Fugro)

In this edition: • DSM-Firmenich | post earnings call comment • Magnum Ince Cream Co | post earnings call comment • Shell | 2Q26 result is the...

The IDEA!

Aequitas: Tencent Investee Selldown - Start of Another US$70bn Selldown Wave

Tencent (700 HK) has been active since the start of the year in selling down some of its stake in its investee companies to raise over US$3.3bn cash.

Sumeet Singh

Universal Music: Pershing Sells, UMG Buys

Pershing’s exit removes transaction optionality but also eliminates a major overhang. UMG’s €250m buyback at €17.66 shifts the focus back to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Universal Music Group NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams no longer pursue joint takeover plan • Universal Music Group | Pershing Square...

The IDEA!

Universal Music: Changing the Tune - Pershing’s Bid Forces a Re-Rating Debate

Pershing’s €30.40 bid for Universal Music Group exposes a valuation gap driven by listing and ownership structure; not a clean arb, but a catalyst...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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