Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Universal Music Group NV / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | to present new medium-term strategy and targets at today’s CMD • Universal Music Group | EU sends statement of objections over proposed Downtown acquisition • Black Friday sales | somewhat muted start of Black Friday week • bpostgroup | Belgium to introduce EUR 2 per item levy on non-EU parcels</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | to present new medium-term strategy and targets at today’s CMD • Universal Music Group | EU sends statement of objections over proposed Downtown acquisition • Black Friday sales | somewhat muted start of Black Friday week • bpostgroup | Belgium to introduce EUR 2 per item levy on non-EU parcels

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 25 November (ABN Amro | UMG | Black Friday sales | bpostgroup)

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul>
<li>Universal Music Group (UMG) presented a strong financial performance for Q1 2025, with revenues increasing by 9.5% and adjusted EBITDA rising by 10%.</li>
<li>The company's global expansion and its implementation of initiatives like Streaming 2.0 and responsible AI strategies have been highlighted as key contributors to this growth.</li>
<li>In particular, the 9.3% growth in subscription revenue showed broad geographical diversification, with significant gains across developed markets such as the U.S. and Japan, as well as burgeoning markets such as China and Mexico.</li>
</ul>


Universal Music Group (UMG) presented a strong financial performance for Q1 2025, with revenues increasing by 9.5% and adjusted EBITDA rising by 10%.
The company's global expansion and its implementation of initiatives like Streaming 2.0 and responsible AI strategies have been highlighted as key contributors to this growth.
In particular, the 9.3% growth in subscription revenue showed broad geographical diversification, with significant gains across developed markets such as the U.S. and Japan, as well as burgeoning markets such as China and Mexico.


Universal Music Group - Why Vinyl’s Comeback Could Rewrite UMG’s Streaming Story!

<ul><li>In this edition: • Universal Music Group | acquisition of Downtown Music likely to be blocked • Arcadis | enters into new 5-year framework agreement with Shell • PostNL | ACM raises concerns on proposed amendments Postal Act • E-commerce & Logistics | strong increase in peak season parcel volumes expected • Havas | denies being in talks with WPP on a possible takeover</li></ul>

In this edition: • Universal Music Group | acquisition of Downtown Music likely to be blocked • Arcadis | enters into new 5-year framework agreement with Shell • PostNL | ACM raises concerns on proposed amendments Postal Act • E-commerce & Logistics | strong increase in peak season parcel volumes expected • Havas | denies being in talks with WPP on a possible takeover

What's News in Amsterdam - 19 November (UMG | Arcadis | PostNL | Havas | E-commerce & Logistics)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Currency factors took their toll on AkzoNobel’s 2Q25 results. On a pure organic basis, sales were flat, which was the balance of lower volumes (-/-1%), higher prices (+2%) and a negative mix effect (-/-1%).</li>
<li>Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.</li>
<li>Adjusted EBITDA was impacted by currency headwinds too. On a reported basis, adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 393m, or EUR 10m lower than the consensus average estimate. </li>
</ul>


Currency factors took their toll on AkzoNobel’s 2Q25 results. On a pure organic basis, sales were flat, which was the balance of lower volumes (-/-1%), higher prices (+2%) and a negative mix effect (-/-1%).
Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.
Adjusted EBITDA was impacted by currency headwinds too. On a reported basis, adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 393m, or EUR 10m lower than the consensus average estimate. 


European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, <em>aiming</em> (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.</li>
<li>Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.</li>
<li>Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.


Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Netherlands

Universal Music Group N.V. operates as an entertainment company. The Company produces and distributes music contents. Universal Music Group serves customers worldwide.

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Universal Music Group NV (UMG NA)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 25 November (ABN Amro | UMG | Black Friday sales | bpostgroup)

In this edition: • ABN Amro | to present new medium-term strategy and targets at today’s CMD • Universal Music Group | EU sends statement of...

The IDEA!

Universal Music Group - Why Vinyl’s Comeback Could Rewrite UMG’s Streaming Story!

Universal Music Group (UMG) presented a strong financial performance for Q1 2025, with revenues increasing by 9.5% and adjusted EBITDA rising by 10%.

Baptista Research

What's News in Amsterdam - 19 November (UMG | Arcadis | PostNL | Havas | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • Universal Music Group | acquisition of Downtown Music likely to be blocked • Arcadis | enters into new 5-year framework...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.

The IDEA!

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 25 November (ABN Amro | UMG | Black Friday sales | bpostgroup)

In this edition: • ABN Amro | to present new medium-term strategy and targets at today’s CMD • Universal Music Group | EU sends statement of...

The IDEA!

Universal Music Group - Why Vinyl’s Comeback Could Rewrite UMG’s Streaming Story!

Universal Music Group (UMG) presented a strong financial performance for Q1 2025, with revenues increasing by 9.5% and adjusted EBITDA rising by 10%.

Baptista Research

What's News in Amsterdam - 19 November (UMG | Arcadis | PostNL | Havas | E-commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • Universal Music Group | acquisition of Downtown Music likely to be blocked • Arcadis | enters into new 5-year framework...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Currency factors were -/-5% and in combination with hyperinflation accounting, this resulted in an almost 6% drop in reported revenue.

The IDEA!

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

​Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...