Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> over the February to June period.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, there could be 36 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
Completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse in February will set off huge passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) over the February to June period.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Wilsons Advisory

Wilsons Advisory

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Wilsons has a distinguished history in financial services that spans over 125 years. Today, the group has significant capabilities in private wealth management, corporate finance, research and investment strategy, and institutional sales. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Universal Store Holdings Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><ul><li>Universal Store provided a trading update on Wednesday.</li><li>Trading conditions have deteriorated much faster than we expected and updated guidance for sales, gross margins and EBIT was - 6.4%, -130bps and -20.0% below our previous forecasts respectively.</li><li>While the EBIT miss appears to have largely been driven by sales, the gross margin miss was likely due to increased promotional activity and customers reducing basket sizes. </li></ul></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Universal Store provided a trading update on Wednesday.Trading conditions have deteriorated much faster than we expected and updated guidance for sales, gross margins and EBIT was - 6.4%, -130bps and -20.0% below our previous forecasts respectively.While the EBIT miss appears to have largely been driven by sales, the gross margin miss was likely due to increased promotional activity and customers reducing basket sizes. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: Still a Quality Outfit

<div><div><div><ul><li>Universal reported 1H23a EBIT of $28.5m (Post AASB16), -7.4% vs. WILSe.</li><li>Revenue missed our forecasts by -4.7% due to Universal physical stores which were still +35.2% yoy.</li><li>Encouragingly, Perfect Stranger and Thrills (in consolidation) exceeded our expectations. </li></ul></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Universal reported 1H23a EBIT of $28.5m (Post AASB16), -7.4% vs. WILSe.Revenue missed our forecasts by -4.7% due to Universal physical stores which were still +35.2% yoy.Encouragingly, Perfect Stranger and Thrills (in consolidation) exceeded our expectations. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: “Leverage like We’ve Never Had...”

<div><div><div><ul><li>Universal Store (UNI) announced the acquisition of Cheap THRILLS Cycles (Thrills) on Monday for a total consideration of $50.0m (6.8x FY22a EBIT).</li><li>We are supportive of the acquisition as it is accretive and further diversifies UNI’s long-term growth profile.</li><li>However, the multiple paid appears full, we see risks around a standalone management structure and believe the ownership of one brand may subtlety restrict store brand offerings. </li></ul></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Universal Store (UNI) announced the acquisition of Cheap THRILLS Cycles (Thrills) on Monday for a total consideration of $50.0m (6.8x FY22a EBIT).We are supportive of the acquisition as it is accretive and further diversifies UNI’s long-term growth profile.However, the multiple paid appears full, we see risks around a standalone management structure and believe the ownership of one brand may subtlety restrict store brand offerings. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<div><div><div><ul><li>Universal Store (UNI) reported FY22a EBIT of $30.9m, at the top end of its guidance range for $30.0-31.0m.</li><li>Revenue was in line to slightly ahead driven by store sales which implies a return to physical stores by customers, gross margins and freight were in line but operating expenses were slightly elevated which we attribute to COVID-19 volatility and expect to normalise.</li><li>Cash flow declined yoy driven by increased payables and timing of tax payments, but was otherwise strong. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div>

Universal Store (UNI) reported FY22a EBIT of $30.9m, at the top end of its guidance range for $30.0-31.0m.Revenue was in line to slightly ahead driven by store sales which implies a return to physical stores by customers, gross margins and freight were in line but operating expenses were slightly elevated which we attribute to COVID-19 volatility and expect to normalise.Cash flow declined yoy driven by increased payables and timing of tax payments, but was otherwise strong. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: “Foot Traffic Is Up”

Australia

Universal Store Pty Ltd retails apparels. The Company offers clothing, furnishings, and accessories for men, women, and children. Universal Store serves customers in Australia.

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Universal Store Holdings Ltd (UNI AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

There could be 36 changes for the ASX indices in March. There is big flow and impact. The Sigma merger with CWG will result in over A$2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: Still a Quality Outfit

While the EBIT miss appears to have largely been driven by sales, the gross margin miss was likely due to increased promotional activity and...

Wilsons Advisory

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: “Leverage like We’ve Never Had...”

Universal reported 1H23a EBIT of $28.5m (Post AASB16), -7.4% vs. WILSe. Revenue missed our forecasts by -4.7% due to Universal physical stores...

Wilsons Advisory

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: THRILLED

Universal Store (UNI) announced the acquisition of Cheap THRILLS Cycles (Thrills) on Monday for a total consideration of $50.0m (6.8x FY22a EBIT).

Wilsons Advisory

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: “Foot Traffic Is Up”

Revenue was in line to slightly ahead driven by store sales which implies a return to physical stores by customers, gross margins and freight were...

Wilsons Advisory

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger

There could be 36 changes for the ASX indices in March. There is big flow and impact. The Sigma merger with CWG will result in over A$2bn of...

Brian Freitas

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: Still a Quality Outfit

While the EBIT miss appears to have largely been driven by sales, the gross margin miss was likely due to increased promotional activity and...

Wilsons Advisory

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: “Leverage like We’ve Never Had...”

Universal reported 1H23a EBIT of $28.5m (Post AASB16), -7.4% vs. WILSe. Revenue missed our forecasts by -4.7% due to Universal physical stores...

Wilsons Advisory

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: THRILLED

Universal Store (UNI) announced the acquisition of Cheap THRILLS Cycles (Thrills) on Monday for a total consideration of $50.0m (6.8x FY22a EBIT).

Wilsons Advisory

Universal Store (UNI) - O/W: “Foot Traffic Is Up”

Revenue was in line to slightly ahead driven by store sales which implies a return to physical stores by customers, gross margins and freight were...

Wilsons Advisory

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Lots of Change; Could Be More with Sigma/CWG Merger