Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sm-investments-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20015:1" rel="noopener">SM Investments (SM PM)</a>, the leading Filipino conglomerate, recently announced strong 9M22 earnings, buoyed by increased economic activity and strong consumer sentiment.</li>
<li>The standout was the unlisted SM Retail segment which recorded net income of PHP 11.5bn, exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic levels. </li>
<li>The implied stub/share - net of all listcos - of PHP 208/share compares to the five-year average of PHP 273/share, and the two-year average of PHP 252 preceding Covid. </li>
</ul>



SM Investments (SM PM), the leading Filipino conglomerate, recently announced strong 9M22 earnings, buoyed by increased economic activity and strong consumer sentiment.
The standout was the unlisted SM Retail segment which recorded net income of PHP 11.5bn, exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic levels. 
The implied stub/share - net of all listcos - of PHP 208/share compares to the five-year average of PHP 273/share, and the two-year average of PHP 252 preceding Covid. 


SM Investments (SM PM): Retail Income Now Exceeds Pre-Covid Levels

<ul>
<li>The in-specie distribution is basically a forward block sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>. You know it's coming. You don't know how large it is. It is not unlike a lockup situation. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> will start with 36% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>. Founders and friends have ~10%. Getting to 50%+ will be easy.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (B)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A)</a> ratio is near a 19-year low. The last time it dipped to 6% under its 3mo average, it bounced back in 4 weeks. </li>
</ul>


The in-specie distribution is basically a forward block sale of Meituan (3690 HK). You know it's coming. You don't know how large it is. It is not unlike a lockup situation. 

China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) will start with 36% in Halcyon Agri (HACL SP). Founders and friends have ~10%. Getting to 50%+ will be easy.
The Swire Pacific (B) / Swire Pacific (A) ratio is near a 19-year low. The last time it dipped to 6% under its 3mo average, it bounced back in 4 weeks. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent/Meituan, Halcyon Agri, Swire Pac, Perpetual/Pendal, OZ Minerals

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fairfax-india-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25553:1" rel="noopener">Fairfax India Holdings (FIH/U CN)</a>, a holdco with investment activities exclusively in India, is edging closer to IPOing 49%-held Bangalore International Airport (BIAL).</li>
<li>Reportedly FIH is seeking a value upward of C$3.7bn for BIAL, a 45% premium over the current fair value holding.  </li>
<li>Currently trading at a P/B of 0.6x compared to its five-year average of 0.8x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 1.06x.</li>
</ul>



Fairfax India Holdings (FIH/U CN), a holdco with investment activities exclusively in India, is edging closer to IPOing 49%-held Bangalore International Airport (BIAL).
Reportedly FIH is seeking a value upward of C$3.7bn for BIAL, a 45% premium over the current fair value holding.  
Currently trading at a P/B of 0.6x compared to its five-year average of 0.8x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 1.06x.


Fairfax India Holdings: Major Value Unlock Via BIAL IPO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haw-par-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9898:1" rel="noopener">Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)</a> is trading around multi-year trough levels on an implied stub valuation, and on an HPAR/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142:1" rel="noopener">UOL Group (UOL SP)</a> ratio.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on HPAR are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP) is trading around multi-year trough levels on an implied stub valuation, and on an HPAR/UOL Group (UOL SP) ratio.
Preceding my comments on HPAR are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dasin-retail-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23743" rel="noopener">Dasin Retail Trust (DASIN SP)</a> 1H22 Business Updates – No distributions in 1H22, loan facilities extended until 31Dec22</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhg-retail-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21021" rel="noopener">BHG Retail REIT (BHGREIT SP)</a> 1H22 DPU -32.1% YoY; Dragged by one-off refinancing cost and forex losses, though occupancy remains robust</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142" rel="noopener">UOL Group (UOL SP)</a> 1H22 PATMI +306% YoY; Robust residential, retail, and hotel operations offset weaknesses in office portfolio</li></ul>

Dasin Retail Trust (DASIN SP) 1H22 Business Updates – No distributions in 1H22, loan facilities extended until 31Dec22BHG Retail REIT (BHGREIT SP) 1H22 DPU -32.1% YoY; Dragged by one-off refinancing cost and forex losses, though occupancy remains robustUOL Group (UOL SP) 1H22 PATMI +306% YoY; Robust residential, retail, and hotel operations offset weaknesses in office portfolio

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (15Aug22) - DASIN Defers Distributions, Extends Loan Facilities

Singapore

UOL Group Limited is a property company. The Company has a diversified portfolio of development and investment properties, hotels, and serviced suites. UOL Group, through its subsidiary owns a portfolio of commercial assets and hotels. UOL Group operates in Asia, Oceania, and North America.

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UOL Group (UOL SP)

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David Blennerhassett

Fairfax India Holdings: Major Value Unlock Via BIAL IPO

FIH is not expensive. The current P/B of 0.6x compares to its five-year average of 0.8x. The two-year average pre-Covid was 1.06x. FIH is not...

David Blennerhassett

2023 High Conviction: Haw Par Is Cheap

I like Haw Par here, and recommend going long outright or hedging against UOB (~58% of its NAV, 94% of its market cap). Singapore Land looks a lay...

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ASEAN Builder's Scoop (15Aug22) - DASIN Defers Distributions, Extends Loan Facilities

BHGREIT dragged by one-off costs; UOL hotel ops leading the way; ART buys 9 props with +2.8% DPU accretion; STRTR divvy specie in ESR shares; ALI...

SCCM Asia Research

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