Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a>  is China’s largest online brokerage, both by revenue and market cap, and backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/up-fintech-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27957:1" rel="noopener">UP Fintech (TIGR US)</a>, also known as Tiger Brokers, is backed by veteran American investor Jim Rogers, smartphone giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, and U.S. brokerage giant Interactive Brokers Group Inc. Both had looked to cash in on the growing amount of Chinese retail investor money pouring into U.S. stocks following a banner year in 2020.
On 14 October 2021, the People's Daily <a href="http://sh.people.com.cn/n2/2021/1014/c139965-34956684.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stated</a> that online brokerages, naming Futu and Up Fintech specifically, that operate across borders run the risk of violating data privacy rules and personal information protection laws, the latter taking effect from 1 November 2021. 
On the same day, Futu’s shares plummeted more than 13% to USD73.11, down 62% from the peak in February. UP Fintech fell more than 20% to USD8.19, down 78% from its February high. 
The additional regulatory scrutiny compounds the woes of China's online brokerages following a torrid 2 quarters, where investor appetite and trading volumes slumped, particularly for US ADRs and HK tech stocks, amidst a weak market environment.
In statements issued last Friday (15 Oct), both firms affirmed that they have pro-actively complied with relevant regulations and addressed issues raised by the Special Task Force on the Regulation of Apps since July 2019, seeking to quell investor concerns following the People's Daily Report. 
In this Insight, we discuss the following: 
<ol>
<li>What are the Relevant Data Laws?</li>
<li>What was new in the People's Daily report? </li>
<li>How have the Online Brokerages sought to mitigate Data Regulations?</li>
<li>Can Online Brokerages Allow Mainland Investors to Trade Offshore Assets in the First Place? </li>
</ol>
More details below the fold.

Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)  is China’s largest online brokerage, both by revenue and market cap, and backed by Tencent (700 HK). UP Fintech (TIGR US), also known as Tiger Brokers, is backed by veteran American investor Jim Rogers, smartphone giant Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), and U.S. brokerage giant Interactive Brokers Group Inc. Both had looked to cash in on the growing amount of Chinese retail investor money pouring into U.S. stocks following a banner year in 2020.
On 14 October 2021, the People's Daily stated that online brokerages, naming Futu and Up Fintech specifically, that operate across borders run the risk of violating data privacy rules and personal information protection laws, the latter taking effect from 1 November 2021. 
On the same day, Futu’s shares plummeted more than 13% to USD73.11, down 62% from the peak in February. UP Fintech fell more than 20% to USD8.19, down 78% from its February high. 
The additional regulatory scrutiny compounds the woes of China's online brokerages following a torrid 2 quarters, where investor appetite and trading volumes slumped, particularly for US ADRs and HK tech stocks, amidst a weak market environment.
In statements issued last Friday (15 Oct), both firms affirmed that they have pro-actively complied with relevant regulations and addressed issues raised by the Special Task Force on the Regulation of Apps since July 2019, seeking to quell investor concerns following the People's Daily Report. 
In this Insight, we discuss the following: 

What are the Relevant Data Laws?
What was new in the People's Daily report? 
How have the Online Brokerages sought to mitigate Data Regulations?
Can Online Brokerages Allow Mainland Investors to Trade Offshore Assets in the First Place? 

More details below the fold.

China Online Brokerages - "No Critical and Sensitive Personal Data to See Here!"

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

East Money Information / Equity Bottom-Up

East Money is the most actively traded A-share stock in 2020. It just reported its 1H2021 results. Unlike the traditional broker, it has a strong leverage on its online information platform which is well reflected in its latest financial results. As an unconventional broker and a member stock of the MSCI China A50 index, we think investors should follow the company closely.

East Money is the most actively traded A-share stock in 2020. It just reported its 1H2021 results. Unlike the traditional broker, it has a strong leverage on its online information platform which is well reflected in its latest financial results. As an unconventional broker and a member stock of the MSCI China A50 index, we think investors should follow the company closely.

East Money 1H21: The Most Active A-Share that Beat the Market

<div>A pandemic fuelled retailed trading frenzy and strong market performance in 2020 enabled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> to benefit from unprecedented growth in paying client additions and trading activities.  A recent USD1 trillion selloff of China offshore equities and a shift in investor sentiment however, compounded by escalating regulatory scrutiny, has led to concerns whether the high growth seen in 2020 and early 2021 would persist in coming quarters.  We lay out 4 hypotheses for a potential negative re-rating focused on growth declines, continued investments, regulations, and licensing concerns. </div>

A pandemic fuelled retailed trading frenzy and strong market performance in 2020 enabled Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) to benefit from unprecedented growth in paying client additions and trading activities.  A recent USD1 trillion selloff of China offshore equities and a shift in investor sentiment however, compounded by escalating regulatory scrutiny, has led to concerns whether the high growth seen in 2020 and early 2021 would persist in coming quarters.  We lay out 4 hypotheses for a potential negative re-rating focused on growth declines, continued investments, regulations, and licensing concerns. 

Futu Holdings - An Inflection Point Imminent?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/up-fintech-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27957:1" rel="noopener">UP Fintech (TIGR US)</a> is a leading online brokerage firm. Its mobile and online trading platform enable investors to trade in equities and other financial instruments on multiple exchanges around the world. Up Fintech has launched an ADS follow-on to sell 6.5 million ADSs. At the last close price of $26.79 per ADS, the placing would raise gross proceeds of $174 million. The placing follows the convertible bond issuances in February and April 2021 which raised $155 million. <div class="content-highlight">Up Fintech’s shares are up 3.4x YTD but down 27% from its February highs due to the recent sell-off on high growth tech stocks. The strong YTD performance is supported by the large addressable market opportunity, strong growth and rising margins. However, Up Fintech trades at a frothy and undeserved premium multiple in comparison to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a>, the key listed peer, in our view. Consequently, we would be inclined to pass on this follow-on ADS offering. </div>

UP Fintech (TIGR US) is a leading online brokerage firm. Its mobile and online trading platform enable investors to trade in equities and other financial instruments on multiple exchanges around the world. Up Fintech has launched an ADS follow-on to sell 6.5 million ADSs. At the last close price of $26.79 per ADS, the placing would raise gross proceeds of $174 million. The placing follows the convertible bond issuances in February and April 2021 which raised $155 million. Up Fintech’s shares are up 3.4x YTD but down 27% from its February highs due to the recent sell-off on high growth tech stocks. The strong YTD performance is supported by the large addressable market opportunity, strong growth and rising margins. However, Up Fintech trades at a frothy and undeserved premium multiple in comparison to Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US), the key listed peer, in our view. Consequently, we would be inclined to pass on this follow-on ADS offering. 

Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) ADS Placement: Trade Creates Losers

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/up-fintech-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27957:1" rel="noopener">Up Fintech (TIGR US)</a> aims to raise around US$165m via a follow-on offering. This will be the first raising by the company since it was listed in 2019. It comes close on the heels of the US$1.7bn raising by its competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> in Apr 2021.We covered the IPO across a series of note, links to which are below:<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/futu-holdings-ipo-quick-note-comparison-with-tiger-brokers-same-market-different-economics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note - Comparison with Tiger Brokers - Same Market, Different Economics</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/up-fintech-tiger-brokers-pre-ipo-quick-note-much-too-reliant-on-ibkr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note - Much Too Reliant on IBKR</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/up-fintech-tiger-brokers-ipo-quick-take-it-s-not-like-futu-won-t-perform-like-it-either" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Quick Take - It’s Not like Futu, Won’t Perform like It Either</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/up-fintech-tiger-brokers-ipo-trading-update-first-day-volume-was-higher-than-futu-close-to-qtt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update - First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT</a></li>
</ul>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.

Up Fintech (TIGR US) aims to raise around US$165m via a follow-on offering. This will be the first raising by the company since it was listed in 2019. It comes close on the heels of the US$1.7bn raising by its competitor Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) in Apr 2021.We covered the IPO across a series of note, links to which are below:
Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note - Comparison with Tiger Brokers - Same Market, Different Economics
Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note - Much Too Reliant on IBKR
Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Quick Take - It’s Not like Futu, Won’t Perform like It Either
Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update - First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.

Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Placement - Needs a Large Correction, Just like Futu

United States

UP Fintech Holding Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides online securities brokerage services. Up Fintech Holding serves customers in China.

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UP Fintech (TIGR US)

China Online Brokerages - "No Critical and Sensitive Personal Data to See Here!"

China's online brokerages risk running afoul of new data privacy rules and personal information protection laws. This is compounded by poor trading...

Jason Yap, CFA

Futu Holdings - An Inflection Point Imminent?

Strong retail participation and market performance enabled Futu Holdings to benefit from strong growth. Given a shift in investor sentiment, we...

Jason Yap, CFA

Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) ADS Placement: Trade Creates Losers

Up Fintech has launched an ADS follow-on to sell 6.5 million ADSs to raise potentially $174 m. Overall, we would be inclined to pass on this follow...

Arun George

Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Placement - Needs a Large Correction, Just like Futu

Up Fintech (TIGR US) aims to raise around US$165m via a follow-on offering. This will be the first raising by the company since it was listed in 2019.

Sumeet Singh

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China Online Brokerages - "No Critical and Sensitive Personal Data to See Here!"

China's online brokerages risk running afoul of new data privacy rules and personal information protection laws. This is compounded by poor trading...

Jason Yap, CFA

East Money 1H21: The Most Active A-Share that Beat the Market

We highlight the strong set of results for East Money. As an unconventional broker and a member stock of the MSCI China A50 index, we think...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Futu Holdings - An Inflection Point Imminent?

Strong retail participation and market performance enabled Futu Holdings to benefit from strong growth. Given a shift in investor sentiment, we...

Jason Yap, CFA

Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) ADS Placement: Trade Creates Losers

Up Fintech has launched an ADS follow-on to sell 6.5 million ADSs to raise potentially $174 m. Overall, we would be inclined to pass on this follow...

Arun George

Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Placement - Needs a Large Correction, Just like Futu

Up Fintech (TIGR US) aims to raise around US$165m via a follow-on offering. This will be the first raising by the company since it was listed in 2019.

Sumeet Singh