Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

The price or yield action on US 10 year Treasury is now beginning to reveal a loss of momentum and indicate at least a consolidation if not lower yields in the short term.A move below 1.58% would be particularly telling.What this, and the developing price action on Oil, tells us about equities is up for interpretation – though from our stand point the bias is to remain cautious on equities as we settle into the new month and quarter.

The price or yield action on US 10 year Treasury is now beginning to reveal a loss of momentum and indicate at least a consolidation if not lower yields in the short term.A move below 1.58% would be particularly telling.What this, and the developing price action on Oil, tells us about equities is up for interpretation – though from our stand point the bias is to remain cautious on equities as we settle into the new month and quarter.

A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s Money FM rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.

A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s Money FM rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.

The past few weeks have raised many questions about what is driving what. As yields have risen aggressively due to higher inflation expectations, there have been some concerns about the potential knock-on impact on financial markets generally, including some corners of the stock markets and emerging markets. However recent developments in Oil and stocks suggest we may go back to a more basic relationship between the different financial markets and that Bonds may even outperforming in the short term.

The past few weeks have raised many questions about what is driving what. As yields have risen aggressively due to higher inflation expectations, there have been some concerns about the potential knock-on impact on financial markets generally, including some corners of the stock markets and emerging markets. However recent developments in Oil and stocks suggest we may go back to a more basic relationship between the different financial markets and that Bonds may even outperforming in the short term.

We are now at a notable juncture from a relative perspective on the NDX vs SPX. Any further underperformance of the NDX would suggest a significant short to medium term change in trend. This seems to be the risk given US 10 year yields still look likely to make it to the 2% area.

We are now at a notable juncture from a relative perspective on the NDX vs SPX. Any further underperformance of the NDX would suggest a significant short to medium term change in trend. This seems to be the risk given US 10 year yields still look likely to make it to the 2% area.

Technical Analysis

This note looks at the chart of US 10 year yield and draws two, very different, conclusions on different horizons; slightly lower yields first as we hit key levels but then much higher yields to come down the line

This note looks at the chart of US 10 year yield and draws two, very different, conclusions on different horizons; slightly lower yields first as we hit key levels but then much higher yields to come down the line

US 10Y Yield - 1 Step Back, 2 Steps Forward

US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

US 10 Year Yield – What to Watch

A more cautionary short term picture is beginning to unfold indicating lower US 10 year yield which raises questions for other markets including US...

Shyam Devani

FX Summary Discussion at End of Q1

A summary radio discussion on foreign exchange and other financial markets as we approach Q2. Topics include the US, Europe, China, Oil, Bonds, and...

Shyam Devani

Oil, Stocks, Bonds - Back to Basics

The recent weakness in Oil coupled with the bearish indication in equities may create a near term bid for Bonds as a more 'traditional'...

Shyam Devani

NDX Vs SPX: Important Pivot

We are now at a juncture that will significantly determine the relative performance of the NDX verses the S&P 500. What happens next is likely to...

Shyam Devani

US 10Y Yield - 1 Step Back, 2 Steps Forward

A quick look at key levels on US 10Y yield reveals an important zone being tested here at 1.31%-1.37% which should hold at first but then give way

Shyam Devani