'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakus-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29200:1" rel="noopener">Rakus (3923 JP)</a> and conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichigo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11386:1" rel="noopener">Ichigo (2337 JP)</a> </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/315/original/2020-10-15_05-50-54.png?1602708663" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165315"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/316/original/2020-10-15_05-48-45.png?1602708676" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165316"></figure></section><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>58 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 41% Positive / 10% Neutral / 48% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.5 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.5% Quarter YoY / -8.6% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.9ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 48% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 40% Positive / 20% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.0 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP) Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS58 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 41% Positive / 10% Neutral / 48% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.5 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -14.5% Quarter YoY / -8.6% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 48% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 40% Positive / 20% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.0 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>The previous Insight took a brief look at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/usen-tob-situation-mechanics-possibilities" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8802">USEN TOB Situation - Mechanics &amp; Possibilities</a> with regard to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9637:1">U-Next Co Ltd (9418 JP)</a> 's Tender Offer to acquire an effective majority control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19290" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19290:1">USEN Corp (4842 JP)</a> , then subsequently perform a de-merger and merger to result in a NEWCO.</p><p>Subsequent to my publishing the last piece, USEN released an <a href="http://www.usen.com/news/cms_data/news/images/2017/20170216_169_3.pdf" target="_blank">English language document</a>. </p><p>Taking a page from Pooh, as I am wont to do, as he is a <em>Particularly Perspicacious Bear</em>, I offer...</p><h2>Things to THINK About.</h2><blockquote><p><strong>When</strong>…</p></blockquote>

The previous Insight took a brief look at the USEN TOB Situation - Mechanics &amp; Possibilities with regard to U-Next Co Ltd (9418 JP) 's Tender Offer to acquire an effective majority control of USEN Corp (4842 JP) , then subsequently perform a de-merger and merger to result in a NEWCO.Subsequent to my publishing the last piece, USEN released an English language document. Taking a page from Pooh, as I am wont to do, as he is a Particularly Perspicacious Bear, I offer...Things to THINK About.When…

USEN/U-Next - THINKING About Things (Which Go Bumpity Bumpity?)

<p>The morning after the TOB by a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9637:1">U-Next Co Ltd (9418 JP)</a> was announced, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19290" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19290:1">USEN Corp (4842 JP)</a> soared 15% to just below the Tender Offer Price of ¥461/share. That was entirely expected.</p><p>What happened next was perhaps less expected, and is not outrageously easy to get one's hands around.</p><p>Details matter. </p><p>Below I discuss... <br>      USEN &amp; U-Next Share Prices<br>      What Does the Tender Look Like A Priori?<br>      A Table Of Possibilities In The Tender<br>      Is There a Possibility of a Bump?<br>      A…</p>

The morning after the TOB by a subsidiary of U-Next Co Ltd (9418 JP) was announced, USEN Corp (4842 JP) soared 15% to just below the Tender Offer Price of ¥461/share. That was entirely expected.What happened next was perhaps less expected, and is not outrageously easy to get one's hands around.Details matter. Below I discuss...        USEN &amp; U-Next Share Prices       What Does the Tender Look Like A Priori?       A Table Of Possibilities In The Tender       Is There a Possibility of a Bump?       A…

USEN TOB Situation - Mechanics & Possibilities

<p>Today after the close, Japanese company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19290" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19290:1">Usen Corp (4842 JP)</a>, well known as an operation piping music into people's apartments for the last few decades (like the radio choices available on airplanes, but piped into your living space as 'online' radio or background music), saw <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9637:1">U Next Co Ltd (9418 JP)</a> - a ¥12bn market cap company with a ¥3bn float - launch a ¥62bn tender offer on it.</p><p>The President and largest shareholder (64%) of U-Next is a 53-year-old entrepreneur named Yasuhide Uno. He happens to…</p>

Today after the close, Japanese company Usen Corp (4842 JP), well known as an operation piping music into people's apartments for the last few decades (like the radio choices available on airplanes, but piped into your living space as 'online' radio or background music), saw U Next Co Ltd (9418 JP) - a ¥12bn market cap company with a ¥3bn float - launch a ¥62bn tender offer on it.The President and largest shareholder (64%) of U-Next is a 53-year-old entrepreneur named Yasuhide Uno. He happens to…

U-SEN TOB by U-NEXT - Cash Deal with Scrip Squeezeout

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

<p>When we wrote our first 5G note in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/5g-set-to-disrupt-the-cellular-business-model" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:3542">5G Set to Disrupt the Cellular Business Model</a> we laid out arguments on how 5G could be more disruptive to mobile operators than fixed line in certain markets. This is NOT the case in Japan where the required network densification has already been done and there are no potential disruptors on the fixed-line side to challenge the existing business model. </p><p>Instead, 5G deployments, starting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a> expected service launch in 2020 for the Tokyo Olympics, are likely to come at manageable cost and be focused on areas where capacity expansion is needed. Without excessive capex or spectrum costs and with little chance of market disruption, Japan’s operators are well-placed to benefit from 5G advances. This was one of the reasons we upgraded our target prices in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-telecoms-strong-1q17-results-confirm-rising-return-story-is-intact" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:5460">Japan Telecoms’ Strong 1Q17 Results Confirm Rising Return Story Is Intact.</a>  </p>

When we wrote our first 5G note in 5G Set to Disrupt the Cellular Business Model we laid out arguments on how 5G could be more disruptive to mobile operators than fixed line in certain markets. This is NOT the case in Japan where the required network densification has already been done and there are no potential disruptors on the fixed-line side to challenge the existing business model. Instead, 5G deployments, starting with NTT Docomo (9437 JP) expected service launch in 2020 for the Tokyo Olympics, are likely to come at manageable cost and be focused on areas where capacity expansion is needed. Without excessive capex or spectrum costs and with little chance of market disruption, Japan’s operators are well-placed to benefit from 5G advances. This was one of the reasons we upgraded our target prices in Japan Telecoms’ Strong 1Q17 Results Confirm Rising Return Story Is Intact.  

Japan's 5G Future: The Heavy Lifting Has Already Been Done

Japan

USEN-NEXT HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd. provides network information services. The Company provides video contents distribution, music contents distribution, and other services. USEN-NEXT HOLDINGS also provides internet agency, mobile communication, and other services.

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Usen-Next Holdings Co Ltd (9418 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP)

Campbell Gunn

USEN/U-Next - THINKING About Things (Which Go Bumpity Bumpity?)

The previous Insight took a brief look at the USEN TOB Situation - Mechanics & Possibilities with regard to U-Next Co Ltd (9418 JP) 's Tender...

Travis Lundy

USEN TOB Situation - Mechanics & Possibilities

The morning after the TOB by a subsidiary of U-Next Co Ltd (9418 JP) was announced, USEN Corp (4842 JP) soared 15% to just below the Tender Offer...

Travis Lundy

U-SEN TOB by U-NEXT - Cash Deal with Scrip Squeezeout

Today after the close, Japanese company Usen Corp (4842 JP), well known as an operation piping music into people's apartments for the last few...

Travis Lundy

Japan's 5G Future: The Heavy Lifting Has Already Been Done

When we wrote our first 5G note in 5G Set to Disrupt the Cellular Business Model we laid out arguments on how 5G could be more disruptive to mobile...

New Street Research

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52-week Range

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Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP)

Campbell Gunn

USEN/U-Next - THINKING About Things (Which Go Bumpity Bumpity?)

The previous Insight took a brief look at the USEN TOB Situation - Mechanics & Possibilities with regard to U-Next Co Ltd (9418 JP) 's Tender...

Travis Lundy

USEN TOB Situation - Mechanics & Possibilities

The morning after the TOB by a subsidiary of U-Next Co Ltd (9418 JP) was announced, USEN Corp (4842 JP) soared 15% to just below the Tender Offer...

Travis Lundy

U-SEN TOB by U-NEXT - Cash Deal with Scrip Squeezeout

Today after the close, Japanese company Usen Corp (4842 JP), well known as an operation piping music into people's apartments for the last few...

Travis Lundy

Japan's 5G Future: The Heavy Lifting Has Already Been Done

When we wrote our first 5G note in 5G Set to Disrupt the Cellular Business Model we laid out arguments on how 5G could be more disruptive to mobile...

New Street Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus