Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the countdown to the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3289527/investors-search-fresh-china-stimulus-signs-ahead-xi-jinpings-economic-conference" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Economic Work Conference (CEWC)</a>, which<a href="https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3289527/investors-search-fresh-china-stimulus-signs-ahead-xi-jinpings-economic-conference" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> </a>will be held on December 11th/12th, the iron ore market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.</li>
<li>Stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> continue to trade at double-digit dividend yields (9-10%), assuming 100 USD/ton.</li>
<li>With China's PMI improving, despite high inventories, there is an expectation of a restock for iron ore in the short term. We remain skeptical and continue to see range-bound activity.</li>
</ul>


In the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th, the iron ore market remains range-bound, expecting further clarity on the economic stimulus.
Stocks like Vale (VALE US) and Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) continue to trade at double-digit dividend yields (9-10%), assuming 100 USD/ton.
With China's PMI improving, despite high inventories, there is an expectation of a restock for iron ore in the short term. We remain skeptical and continue to see range-bound activity.


Iron Ore Tracker (9-Dec-2024): Stuck In A 95-110 USD/Ton Band, Restock On The Cards?

<ul>
<li>After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.</li>
<li>Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.</li>
<li>We update investors on Vale's (VALE US) recent <a href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/f3e7e25d-31a1-8e6d-107d-e05c2eb8e08b?origin=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal </a>to the government to settle the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariana_dam_disaster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mariana Dam</a> disaster.</li>
</ul>


After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.
Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.
We update investors on Vale's (VALE US) recent proposal to the government to settle the Mariana Dam disaster.


Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

<ul>
<li>A slew of policies announced by the Chinese government led to a short squeeze in the iron ore market, with prices moving up 20% from the lows to 108 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Mill margins inflected into positive territory, and iron ore, after gapping below its band of 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3.5 years, is now back in its normalized range. </li>
<li>While the current move was unexpected, we expect the euphoria to last a while as more clarity on the stimulus emerges and ore prices tick up short-term.</li>
</ul>


A slew of policies announced by the Chinese government led to a short squeeze in the iron ore market, with prices moving up 20% from the lows to 108 USD/ton.
Mill margins inflected into positive territory, and iron ore, after gapping below its band of 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3.5 years, is now back in its normalized range. 
While the current move was unexpected, we expect the euphoria to last a while as more clarity on the stimulus emerges and ore prices tick up short-term.


Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Vale's Q2 2024 earnings reflected a mixture of operational accomplishments and ongoing challenges.</li><li>A significant positive was the advancement in safety measures, particularly the decharacterization of the B3/B4 dam, which was completed one year ahead of schedule.</li><li>This achievement is part of Vale's broader commitment to eliminate all upstream dams in Brazil, enhancing safety standards.</li></ul>

Vale's Q2 2024 earnings reflected a mixture of operational accomplishments and ongoing challenges.A significant positive was the advancement in safety measures, particularly the decharacterization of the B3/B4 dam, which was completed one year ahead of schedule.This achievement is part of Vale's broader commitment to eliminate all upstream dams in Brazil, enhancing safety standards.

Vale S.A.: Enhanced Production Capacity Through Strategic Asset Expansion & Other Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>Iron ore broke out of its three-year band two weeks ago and, after a brief recovery, trended lower by 9% WoW. It is now within touching distance of 90 USD/ton. </li>
<li>Chinese steel margins showed no signs of improving, with the average mills losing 70-80 USD/ton. Iron ore inventories continued to climb at the ports, exceeding 150 million tons.</li>
<li>We would stay clear of iron ore names for the time being as we wait for iron ore to consolidate at some levels. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore broke out of its three-year band two weeks ago and, after a brief recovery, trended lower by 9% WoW. It is now within touching distance of 90 USD/ton. 
Chinese steel margins showed no signs of improving, with the average mills losing 70-80 USD/ton. Iron ore inventories continued to climb at the ports, exceeding 150 million tons.
We would stay clear of iron ore names for the time being as we wait for iron ore to consolidate at some levels. 


Iron Ore Tracker (9-Sep-2024): Short-Term Bearish Signals More Prominent

Brazil

Vale S.A. is a Brazilian multinational corporation primarily engaged in metals and mining, and one of the largest logistics operators in Brazil. It is a leading global producer of iron ore and nickel, also producing copper, manganese, ferroalloys, and other base metals. The company operates integrated logistics systems including railways, maritime terminals, and ports. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the company was founded in 1942.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Vale (VALE3 BR)

Iron Ore Tracker (9-Dec-2024): Stuck In A 95-110 USD/Ton Band, Restock On The Cards?

The iron ore market is range-bound in the countdown to the China Economic Work Conference (CEWC), which will be held on December 11th/12th. How do...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

The positive sentiment in iron ore lasted only two weeks as China disappointed investors with its announcements on the stimulus plan. This leaves...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

We get more constructive in the short term, with China stimulus measures likely to result in a sizeable short squeeze for iron ore. Iron ore could...

Sameer Taneja

Vale S.A.: Enhanced Production Capacity Through Strategic Asset Expansion & Other Major Drivers

Vale's Q2 2024 earnings reflected a mixture of operational accomplishments and ongoing challenges. A significant positive was the advancement in...

Baptista Research

Iron Ore Tracker (9-Sep-2024): Short-Term Bearish Signals More Prominent

With iron ore prices breaking below 95 USD/ton, we become more bearish in the short term. We track indicators like mill margins, inventories, and...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)