Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels,<br>presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks<br>for both markets... see page 2</p><p>• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5</p><p>• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8</p>

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels, presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks for both markets... see page 2• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

<p>A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly <em>International Compass </em> But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including <strong>Alcoa</strong> (AA), <strong>Freeport-McMoRan</strong> (FCX), <strong>Norsk Hydro</strong> (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.</p><p>In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.</p>

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass  But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Initiating coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24163" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24163:1">Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN)</a> with a target of £2.10/sh.</p><ol class=""><li>Markets are unduly concerned about the geopolitical risks and balance sheet risk. We do not anticipate any significant geopolitical or default risk to warrant the massive discount.</li><li>Balance sheet deleverage expected to continue in FY17, internal cash generation sufficient to repay debt, may require some refinancing at iron ore price &lt; US$50/t</li><li>New Projects and Brown field expansions expected to increase value by as much as 18% to base case </li><li>FXPO is valued at £2.73/share, an upside of ~60% to last close price.</li></ol>

Initiating coverage of Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) with a target of £2.10/sh.Markets are unduly concerned about the geopolitical risks and balance sheet risk. We do not anticipate any significant geopolitical or default risk to warrant the massive discount.Balance sheet deleverage expected to continue in FY17, internal cash generation sufficient to repay debt, may require some refinancing at iron ore price &lt; US$50/tNew Projects and Brown field expansions expected to increase value by as much as 18% to base case FXPO is valued at £2.73/share, an upside of ~60% to last close price.

FXPO: Geopolitical & Balance Sheet Risks Overblown; Deep Discount Provides Buying Opportunity

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<div>
<strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Monday 22 May 2017</div><div><strong>Jiangxi Copper and Vale - Metals theme</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/aHRePSJUw" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/aHRePSJUw</a></strong>7:19 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/026/488/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1495432296" data-smartkarma-image-id="26488"></figure><div class="content-caption">Metals theme webcast</div>
</div><p>We are seeing more bullish signals in material shares on the back of our call for commodities to rebound into June and looking for breadth to expand.</p><div>Angang Steel's buy call at 4.88 is attracting flows. RIO has broken out above 61-62 and is bullish for a re test on the 70 high. This sector will be the bright spot as EEM crests…</div>


Chartonics webcast Monday 22 May 2017Jiangxi Copper and Vale - Metals themeTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/aHRePSJUw7:19 min.
Metals theme webcast
We are seeing more bullish signals in material shares on the back of our call for commodities to rebound into June and looking for breadth to expand.Angang Steel's buy call at 4.88 is attracting flows. RIO has broken out above 61-62 and is bullish for a re test on the 70 high. This sector will be the bright spot as EEM crests…

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

<p>Brazil is the second largest exporter of Iron Ore (19,6% of exports).</p><p>China imported 82,23m tons of Iron Ore in April Vs 95,56m tons in March.</p><p>Over supply along with stockpiling  is looming whereas Chinese outlook remains uncertain. Issues regarding deleveraging, corporate debt, regulation and mixed data on Chinese demand need to be lifted. By that time, Iron Ore is likely to remain under pressure. We expect its price to continue going down to 410/400 (IOEA comdty).</p><p>Technical outlook also suggests…</p>

Brazil is the second largest exporter of Iron Ore (19,6% of exports).China imported 82,23m tons of Iron Ore in April Vs 95,56m tons in March.Over supply along with stockpiling  is looming whereas Chinese outlook remains uncertain. Issues regarding deleveraging, corporate debt, regulation and mixed data on Chinese demand need to be lifted. By that time, Iron Ore is likely to remain under pressure. We expect its price to continue going down to 410/400 (IOEA comdty).Technical outlook also suggests…

Iron Ore Current Pressure Weighs on Vale Stock Price

Brazil

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

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Vale (VALE3 BZ)

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels,presenting attractive entry points. We see...

Vermilion Research

Global Miners Are Breaking Out -- Buy

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals,...

Vermilion Research

FXPO: Geopolitical & Balance Sheet Risks Overblown; Deep Discount Provides Buying Opportunity

Initiating coverage of Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) with a target of £2.10/sh. Markets are unduly concerned about the geopolitical risks and balance...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Steel and Copper Bull Theme

Chartonics webcast Monday 22 May 2017Jiangxi Copper and Vale - Metals themeTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/aHRePSJUw7:19...

Thomas Schroeder

Iron Ore Current Pressure Weighs on Vale Stock Price

Brazil is the second largest exporter of Iron Ore (19,6% of exports).China imported 82,23m tons of Iron Ore in April Vs 95,56m tons in March.Over...

Guillaume Coutant

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