EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. </li><li>Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed </li><li>Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. </li></ol>

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. 

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,300+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we review the outlook for energy markets amid the Persian Gulf conflict, highlight coverage of gold miners large and small, and identify opportunities in Japanese financials.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,300+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we review the outlook for energy markets amid the Persian Gulf conflict, highlight coverage of gold miners large and small, and identify opportunities in Japanese financials.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Crude Reality, Reshuffling Gold Miners & Banking on Japanese Fintech

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>We are initiating coverage of Darling Ingredients, Inc. (NYSE: DAR), which is a global leader in sustainable solutions. </li><li>The company’s business model is rooted in the circular economy, transforming animal by-products, used cooking oil (UCO), and other waste streams into valuable ingredients for animal and human nutrition, and renewable fuel. </li><li>The company’s Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) joint venture (JV) with Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is the largest renewable diesel (RD) producer in the US, with 1.2 billion gallons of combined RD and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) capacity.</li></ul></div>

We are initiating coverage of Darling Ingredients, Inc. (NYSE: DAR), which is a global leader in sustainable solutions. The company’s business model is rooted in the circular economy, transforming animal by-products, used cooking oil (UCO), and other waste streams into valuable ingredients for animal and human nutrition, and renewable fuel. The company’s Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) joint venture (JV) with Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is the largest renewable diesel (RD) producer in the US, with 1.2 billion gallons of combined RD and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) capacity.

DAR: Leveraging "Sustainable Oil Field" For Feed and Food; Renewable Fuels-Led Recovery Ahead

<ul><li>Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) is one of the world’s largest and most efficient producers of downstream oil products and low-carbon transport fuels and among the best-positioned refiners for the changing energy landscape.</li><li>Its diversified low-carbon fuels business offers multiple future pathways for growth and its low-cost oil refining operations lead the North American refining industry on margins.</li><li>Operations include complex oil refining capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day in the US, Canada, and the UK, 1.2 billion gallons per year of renewable diesel (RD) and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF) capacity (joint venture [JV] with Darling Ingredients, Inc. [NYSE: DAR]), and corn ethanol capacity of 1.7 billion gallons per year in the Midwest. </li></ul>

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) is one of the world’s largest and most efficient producers of downstream oil products and low-carbon transport fuels and among the best-positioned refiners for the changing energy landscape.Its diversified low-carbon fuels business offers multiple future pathways for growth and its low-cost oil refining operations lead the North American refining industry on margins.Operations include complex oil refining capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day in the US, Canada, and the UK, 1.2 billion gallons per year of renewable diesel (RD) and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF) capacity (joint venture [JV] with Darling Ingredients, Inc. [NYSE: DAR]), and corn ethanol capacity of 1.7 billion gallons per year in the Midwest. 

Valero Energy Corporation VLO: Margins Improving on All Fronts

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Valero Energy Corporation's second quarter of 2025 financial performance indicates a blend of strong operational execution with challenges in certain segments.</li><li>On the positive side, Valero set a record for refining throughput rate in the U.S. Gulf Coast, showcasing the efficacy of their investments in optimization projects.</li><li>This operational efficiency was supported by robust refining margins, largely driven by strong product demand and low inventory levels globally, particularly in diesel, which saw sales volumes increase by about 10% year-over-year.</li></ul>

Valero Energy Corporation's second quarter of 2025 financial performance indicates a blend of strong operational execution with challenges in certain segments.On the positive side, Valero set a record for refining throughput rate in the U.S. Gulf Coast, showcasing the efficacy of their investments in optimization projects.This operational efficiency was supported by robust refining margins, largely driven by strong product demand and low inventory levels globally, particularly in diesel, which saw sales volumes increase by about 10% year-over-year.

Valero Energy Corporation: Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Expansion

United States

Valero Energy Corporation is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company that owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and Aruba.  The Company produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products as well as diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates.

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Valero Energy (VLO US)

Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 1

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

Curator's Cut: Crude Reality, Reshuffling Gold Miners & Banking on Japanese Fintech

This Curator's Cut highlights energy market outlook, gold miners coverage, and opportunities in Japanese financials from Smartkarma insights....

Pranav Rao

DAR: Leveraging "Sustainable Oil Field" For Feed and Food; Renewable Fuels-Led Recovery Ahead

We are initiating coverage of Darling Ingredients, Inc. (NYSE: DAR), which is a global leader in sustainable solutions. The company’s business...

Water Tower Research

Valero Energy Corporation VLO: Margins Improving on All Fronts

We are initiating coverage of Valero, with an enhanced focus on the strategy and outlook for the low-carbon fuels business

Water Tower Research

Valero Energy Corporation: Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Expansion

Valero Energy Corporation's second quarter of 2025 financial performance indicates a blend of strong operational execution with challenges in...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 1

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

Curator's Cut: Crude Reality, Reshuffling Gold Miners & Banking on Japanese Fintech

​This Curator's Cut highlights energy market outlook, gold miners coverage, and opportunities in Japanese financials from Smartkarma insights....

Pranav Rao

DAR: Leveraging "Sustainable Oil Field" For Feed and Food; Renewable Fuels-Led Recovery Ahead

We are initiating coverage of Darling Ingredients, Inc. (NYSE: DAR), which is a global leader in sustainable solutions. The company’s business...

Water Tower Research

Valero Energy Corporation VLO: Margins Improving on All Fronts

We are initiating coverage of Valero, with an enhanced focus on the strategy and outlook for the low-carbon fuels business

Water Tower Research

Valero Energy Corporation: Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Expansion

Valero Energy Corporation's second quarter of 2025 financial performance indicates a blend of strong operational execution with challenges in...

Baptista Research

This Curator's Cut highlights energy market outlook, gold miners coverage, and opportunities in Japanese financials from Smartkarma insights....