Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.</li>
<li>With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. </li>
<li>This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.
With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs. 
This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.


Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances


Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).</li>
<li>We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.


Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> will have largest outflows.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US). Broadcom (AVGO US) will have largest outflows.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

United States

VanEck Vectors Semiconductor is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks to track the performance results of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index. The fund invests in the largest and most liquid companies listed in the US, which are active in the semiconductor sector. The E-TF will not hold more than 20% in any one security.

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VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Was That It? $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Discretionary $XLY to market weight and Energy $XLE to underweight; Growth vs. Value Breaking Out; Market...

Vermilion Research

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

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