Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).</li>
<li>We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) from 4/22/25 to 11/19/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 report last week, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 report).
We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold. We believe SPX,QQQ, and IWM are in a new "lockout rally"


New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares</li>
<li>India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares
India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption 


Overview #14 - The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change.</li><li>What changed was that we are seeing a very large leveraged unwind in the market, driven by the BOJ's hike in interest rates.</li><li>Let me write out the series of events. First and foremost, last week, we saw some of the first macro jitters. The CPI came to light, which was viewed as positive. But then NFP showed a bit of weakness.</li></ul>

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change.What changed was that we are seeing a very large leveraged unwind in the market, driven by the BOJ's hike in interest rates.Let me write out the series of events. First and foremost, last week, we saw some of the first macro jitters. The CPI came to light, which was viewed as positive. But then NFP showed a bit of weakness.

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).</li>
<li>Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold</li>
<li>The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our near-term outlook on SPX and QQQ to neutral last week (11/19/25), after being bullish since 4/22/25, while we maintained our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of 5/14/25).
Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are back to being near-term bullish as long as these supports continue to hold
The latest pullback offers an attractive entry point into all the speculative growth areas that we were pounding the table on since May, WITH A STOP AT LAST WEEKS LOWS


Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest impact passive sell. </li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell. 
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

United States

VanEck Vectors Semiconductor is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks to track the performance results of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index. The fund invests in the largest and most liquid companies listed in the US, which are active in the semiconductor sector. The E-TF will not hold more than 20% in any one security.

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VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)

New Lockout Rally Underway on SPX, QQQ, and IWM? Yes. Here Is Why. Still Bullish

New Lockout Rally Underway on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM? Yes. The last time we made this same claim was in our 5/6/25 Compass report. Still Near-Term...

Vermilion Research

Overview #14 - The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the potential implications of Deepseek on Chinese tech...

Rikki Malik

MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change. What changed was that we are seeing a very large...

Fabricated Knowledge

Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and Nasdaq 100; Supports Held at SPX 6480-6520 and QQQ $580-583

Back to Near-Term Bullish on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX; Crucial Supports Held at 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on $QQQ, we are near-term bullish as...

Vermilion Research

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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