Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'</a>s 3Q25 outlook shows slight improvement over 2Q25, potentially around +5%.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> overall utilization expected to reach around 75–80% in 3Q25, with 0.18µm loading is nearly full.</li>
<li>Progress on Vanguard’s Singapore 12” fab is still in early stages, with the main constraint being the equipment move-in schedule.  </li>
</ul>



Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'s 3Q25 outlook shows slight improvement over 2Q25, potentially around +5%.  

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) overall utilization expected to reach around 75–80% in 3Q25, with 0.18µm loading is nearly full.
Progress on Vanguard’s Singapore 12” fab is still in early stages, with the main constraint being the equipment move-in schedule.  


Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

<ul>
<li>2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments are expected to grow +3~5% QoQ, ASP is expected to increase +0~2% QoQ and Gross margin is projected at 27~29%.</li>
<li>2Q25 by platform: PMIC to see significant growth; discrete to grow in low single digits; DDIC to remain flat.</li>
<li>The 2024 annual dividend policy is maintained at NT$4.5 per share.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments are expected to grow +3~5% QoQ, ASP is expected to increase +0~2% QoQ and Gross margin is projected at 27~29%.
2Q25 by platform: PMIC to see significant growth; discrete to grow in low single digits; DDIC to remain flat.
The 2024 annual dividend policy is maintained at NT$4.5 per share.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…

<ul>
<li>We assume that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. </li>
</ul>


We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

<ul>
<li>1Q25 Shipment estimates are up 8-10%. The ASP is expected to decrease by 4-6% QoQ and the gross margin. GM is projected to be 29-31%, showing a 1.3% increase QoQ. </li>
<li>The worldwide inventory level is currently healthy. Automotive inventory levels are improving, and Vanguard anticipates moderate growth in the semiconductor industry for 2025.</li>
<li>VSMC's construction will proceed according to the current plan. The project is currently slightly ahead of schedule. Sampling is planned for 2026, with mass production expected to begin in 2027.</li>
</ul>


1Q25 Shipment estimates are up 8-10%. The ASP is expected to decrease by 4-6% QoQ and the gross margin. GM is projected to be 29-31%, showing a 1.3% increase QoQ. 
The worldwide inventory level is currently healthy. Automotive inventory levels are improving, and Vanguard anticipates moderate growth in the semiconductor industry for 2025.
VSMC's construction will proceed according to the current plan. The project is currently slightly ahead of schedule. Sampling is planned for 2026, with mass production expected to begin in 2027.


Vanguard (5347.TT): In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. The Current Inventory Is Healthy.

<ul>
<li>Usually, the 1st quarter of each year should show a decline for foundry companies, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a>'s 1Q25 results could be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a>'s demand for Display Driver IC (DDIC) is on the rise, surpassing the growth seen in Power Management IC (PMIC).</li>
<li>Despite the potential increase in shipments in 1Q25, the rise in lower-margin products, such as 8" DDICs for large panels, is notable.</li>
</ul>


Usually, the 1st quarter of each year should show a decline for foundry companies, but Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'s 1Q25 results could be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter.  

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'s demand for Display Driver IC (DDIC) is on the rise, surpassing the growth seen in Power Management IC (PMIC).
Despite the potential increase in shipments in 1Q25, the rise in lower-margin products, such as 8" DDICs for large panels, is notable.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 3Q25 outlook sees slight improvement over 2Q25, with utilization expected to reach 75-80% and progress on Singapore...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…

2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments to grow, ASP to increase, gross margin projected; PMIC to see significant growth, dividend policy maintained at...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. The Current Inventory Is Healthy.

In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. GM projected to increase 1.3% QoQ. Worldwide inventory healthy. VSMC construction on track, sampling in...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 1Q25 results may defy industry trends with flat performance, driven by rising demand for Display Driver ICs over...

Patrick Liao

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Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 3Q25 outlook sees slight improvement over 2Q25, with utilization expected to reach 75-80% and progress on Singapore...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlooks Largely in Line; Exchange Rates and Tariffs Remain Uncertain…

​2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments to grow, ASP to increase, gross margin projected; PMIC to see significant growth, dividend policy maintained at...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. The Current Inventory Is Healthy.

In 1Q25, Both Sales and GM Will Increase. GM projected to increase 1.3% QoQ. Worldwide inventory healthy. VSMC construction on track, sampling in...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 1Q25 results may defy industry trends with flat performance, driven by rising demand for Display Driver ICs over...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 3Q25 outlook sees slight improvement over 2Q25, with utilization expected to reach 75-80% and progress on Singapore...

2Q25 outlook: Wafer shipments to grow, ASP to increase, gross margin projected; PMIC to see significant growth, dividend policy maintained at...

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 1Q25 results may defy industry trends with flat performance, driven by rising demand for Display Driver ICs over...