Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 13 changes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) has an AUM of US$6.4bn.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover is estimated at 41% and that will result in a round-trip trade of TWD 168.8bn (US$5.2bn). There are 16 stocks that could have over 4x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF has started trading the stocks last week.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 changes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) has an AUM of US$6.4bn.
One-Way turnover is estimated at 41% and that will result in a round-trip trade of TWD 168.8bn (US$5.2bn). There are 16 stocks that could have over 4x ADV to trade.
The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF has started trading the stocks last week.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 13 Changes & US$5.2bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 209bn (US$6.5bn).</li>
<li>There could be 14 changes for the ETF in June with an estimated one-way turnover of around 40% and a round-trip trade of around US$5bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and there could be more to go heading into announcement and implementation.</li>
</ul>


The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 209bn (US$6.5bn).
There could be 14 changes for the ETF in June with an estimated one-way turnover of around 40% and a round-trip trade of around US$5bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and there could be more to go heading into announcement and implementation.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance Preview: AUM Jump & HUGE Trade

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vanguard should declare to established 12" Fab in Singapore within 2014.</li>
<li>Vanguard is likely to announce the establishment of 2 sets of 12" fabs in the next 6 months.  </li>
<li>China is expanding 28/22nm and above technologies, and we believe it's more appropriate for Vanguard to compete with others rather than TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard should declare to established 12" Fab in Singapore within 2014.
Vanguard is likely to announce the establishment of 2 sets of 12" fabs in the next 6 months.  
China is expanding 28/22nm and above technologies, and we believe it's more appropriate for Vanguard to compete with others rather than TSMC.


Vanguard (5347.TT): Planning to Announce the Construction of a 12" Fab in Singapore in 2024.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 2Q24 revenue outlook is NT$24.4-25.5bn, which was below Bloomberg consensuses NTD$26.45bn. </li>
<li>The company sees more aggressive stocking for TVs in 2Q24, but smartphone demand is soft in 2Q24.  </li>
<li>The dividend payout rate has been maintained at 80-85% over the past few years, with no significant changes expected.  </li>
</ul>


The 2Q24 revenue outlook is NT$24.4-25.5bn, which was below Bloomberg consensuses NTD$26.45bn. 
The company sees more aggressive stocking for TVs in 2Q24, but smartphone demand is soft in 2Q24.  
The dividend payout rate has been maintained at 80-85% over the past few years, with no significant changes expected.  


Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q24 Sales Inline; 2Q24F Sales Guidance Below Consensuses

<ul>
<li>1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales, but GM upside 1% QoQ.   </li>
<li>Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and automotive applications are ongoing.  </li>
<li>Specifically speaking, in 2Q24 we expect to see a revival in demand, with QCOQ and MPS potentially beginning to place orders in Fab 5.</li>
</ul>


1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales, but GM upside 1% QoQ.   
Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and automotive applications are ongoing.  
Specifically speaking, in 2Q24 we expect to see a revival in demand, with QCOQ and MPS potentially beginning to place orders in Fab 5.


Vanguard (5347.TT):  1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 13 Changes & US$5.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 13 changes for the index in June. One-way turnover is estimated at 41% resulting in a round-trip trade of TWD 168.8bn (US$5.2bn). There...

Brian Freitas

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance Preview: AUM Jump & HUGE Trade

There could be 14 changes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June with an estimated 1-way turnover of around 40% and an...

Brian Freitas

Vanguard (5347.TT): Planning to Announce the Construction of a 12" Fab in Singapore in 2024.

Vanguard plans to establish two 12" fabs in Singapore in 2014 to compete with other companies in the expanding Chinese market.

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q24 Sales Inline; 2Q24F Sales Guidance Below Consensuses

Company's 2Q24 revenue outlook falls below expectations due to soft smartphone demand, despite aggressive stocking for TVs. Dividend payout rate...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales. Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance: 13 Changes & US$5.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 13 changes for the index in June. One-way turnover is estimated at 41% resulting in a round-trip trade of TWD 168.8bn (US$5.2bn). There...

Brian Freitas

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance Preview: AUM Jump & HUGE Trade

There could be 14 changes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June with an estimated 1-way turnover of around 40% and an...

Brian Freitas

Vanguard (5347.TT): Planning to Announce the Construction of a 12" Fab in Singapore in 2024.

​Vanguard plans to establish two 12" fabs in Singapore in 2014 to compete with other companies in the expanding Chinese market.

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): 1Q24 Sales Inline; 2Q24F Sales Guidance Below Consensuses

​Company's 2Q24 revenue outlook falls below expectations due to soft smartphone demand, despite aggressive stocking for TVs. Dividend payout rate...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales. Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard plans to establish two 12" fabs in Singapore in 2014 to compete with other companies in the expanding Chinese market.

Company's 2Q24 revenue outlook falls below expectations due to soft smartphone demand, despite aggressive stocking for TVs. Dividend payout rate...