External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Muted Domestic Demand Offset by Sparkling Growth Overseas: In Q3CY25, the company’s consolidated sales volume grew 2.4% YoY to 273.8 Mn cases.</li><li>In India, volumes remained muted due to prolonged rainfall across several regions, impacting overall demand.</li><li>However, this weakness was partially offset by robust performance in international markets, where volumes increased 9%, led by mid-double-digit growth in South Africa. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Muted Domestic Demand Offset by Sparkling Growth Overseas: In Q3CY25, the company’s consolidated sales volume grew 2.4% YoY to 273.8 Mn cases.In India, volumes remained muted due to prolonged rainfall across several regions, impacting overall demand.However, this weakness was partially offset by robust performance in international markets, where volumes increased 9%, led by mid-double-digit growth in South Africa. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Varun Beverages Ltd - International Fizz Cushions Domestic Slowdown; Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Volume Dips, but Global Growth Cushions the Blow: In Q2CY25, the company’s consolidated sales volume declined 3% YoY to ~390 Mn cases.</li><li>In India, volumes were adversely impacted by abnormally high and unseasonal rainfall throughout the quarter, leading to a 7.1% decline.</li><li>However, this was partially offset by strong performance in international markets, where volumes grew 15.1%, led by a 16.1% increase in South Africa. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Volume Dips, but Global Growth Cushions the Blow: In Q2CY25, the company’s consolidated sales volume declined 3% YoY to ~390 Mn cases.In India, volumes were adversely impacted by abnormally high and unseasonal rainfall throughout the quarter, leading to a 7.1% decline.However, this was partially offset by strong performance in international markets, where volumes grew 15.1%, led by a 16.1% increase in South Africa. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Varun Beverages Ltd - Temporary Topline Blip, Long-Term Growth Intact

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Varun Beverages (VBL) reported a revenue growth of 38% YoY in 4QCY24, led by volume growth of 38% YoY, which was majorly driven by the volume addition from South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).</li><li>Excluding these volumes, organic volume growth was ~5% YoY.</li><li>Realization remained flat YoY at INR172/case.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Varun Beverages (VBL) reported a revenue growth of 38% YoY in 4QCY24, led by volume growth of 38% YoY, which was majorly driven by the volume addition from South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).Excluding these volumes, organic volume growth was ~5% YoY.Realization remained flat YoY at INR172/case.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Varun Beverages - Volume Growth Led by International Market Additions

<ul><li>Volume-led growth: In Q4CY24, the company delivered a strong performance, driven by a 38.1% YoY increase in volume growth (~23.2% for CY24), fueled by expanded international operations.</li><li>This included 43 million cases from South Africa and 7.8 million cases from the DRC.</li><li>Realisation for CY24 rose by 1.3% to Rs 177.9 per case, led by a better product mix. I</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Volume-led growth: In Q4CY24, the company delivered a strong performance, driven by a 38.1% YoY increase in volume growth (~23.2% for CY24), fueled by expanded international operations.This included 43 million cases from South Africa and 7.8 million cases from the DRC.Realisation for CY24 rose by 1.3% to Rs 177.9 per case, led by a better product mix. IContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Varun Beverages Ltd - Growth Story Remains Intact: Maintain BUY

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.</li>
</ul>


Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in December.
We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.


Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

India

Varun Beverages Limited produces and distributes beverages. The Company offers carbonated soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as provides packaged drinking water. Varun Beverages serves customers worldwide.

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Varun Beverages (VBL IN)

Varun Beverages Ltd - International Fizz Cushions Domestic Slowdown; Maintain BUY

Muted Domestic Demand Offset by Sparkling Growth Overseas: In Q3CY25, the company’s consolidated sales volume grew 2.4% YoY to 273.8 Mn cases.

Axis Direct

Varun Beverages Ltd - Temporary Topline Blip, Long-Term Growth Intact

Volume Dips, but Global Growth Cushions the Blow: In Q2CY25, the company’s consolidated sales volume declined 3% YoY to ~390 Mn cases.

Axis Direct

Varun Beverages - Volume Growth Led by International Market Additions

We largely maintain our CY25/CY26 earnings estimates. We value the stock at 55x CY26E EPS to arrive at a TP of INR680. We reiterate our BUY rating...

Motilal Oswal

Varun Beverages Ltd - Growth Story Remains Intact: Maintain BUY

Volume-led growth: In Q4CY24, the company delivered a strong performance, driven by a 38.1% YoY increase in volume growth (~23.2% for CY24), fueled...

Axis Direct

Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

The introduction of new F&O contracts will result in an estimated 21.9% turnover and a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m) for the Nifty Next50...

Brian Freitas

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