Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.</li>
<li>Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.</li>
<li>Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.</li>
</ul>


Silver-Led earnings and INR translation sustain margins; spot pricing largely reflected in equity.
Integrated first-quartile cost base supports valuation without requiring leverage or volume expansion.
Upside requires sustained silver dislocation; maintain Hold on balanced risk-reward.


Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

<ul>
<li>Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.</li>
<li>Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.</li>
<li>Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.</li>
</ul>


Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.
Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.
Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.


Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

<ul>
<li>Vedanta reported 10% revenue growth and 37% EBITDA growth in FY25, supported by volume expansion across aluminium and zinc businesses.</li>
<li>Major capex projects, including Gamsberg Phase 2 and captive bauxite and coal mines, are expected to drive volume growth through FY27, with steady operational guidance.</li>
<li>Vedanta Resources standalone net debt reduced from $8.9 billion to $4.9 billion over three years, easing refinancing risks and improving financial flexibility.</li>
</ul>


Vedanta reported 10% revenue growth and 37% EBITDA growth in FY25, supported by volume expansion across aluminium and zinc businesses.
Major capex projects, including Gamsberg Phase 2 and captive bauxite and coal mines, are expected to drive volume growth through FY27, with steady operational guidance.
Vedanta Resources standalone net debt reduced from $8.9 billion to $4.9 billion over three years, easing refinancing risks and improving financial flexibility.


Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> plans a multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating its aluminum, zinc, oil and gas, steel, and other core operations into standalone entities.</li>
<li>This restructuring aims to eliminate conglomerate discount, foster specialized leadership, and attract fresh capital, potentially enhancing overall valuations and fueling long-term growth across diversified segments.</li>
<li>Despite governance concerns and cyclical commodity risks, pure-play listings could catalyze re-ratings, offering heightened returns but requiring vigilance on execution and corporate transparency.</li>
</ul>



Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) plans a multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating its aluminum, zinc, oil and gas, steel, and other core operations into standalone entities.
This restructuring aims to eliminate conglomerate discount, foster specialized leadership, and attract fresh capital, potentially enhancing overall valuations and fueling long-term growth across diversified segments.
Despite governance concerns and cyclical commodity risks, pure-play listings could catalyze re-ratings, offering heightened returns but requiring vigilance on execution and corporate transparency.


Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)

Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Rahul Jain

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

NCLAT allows Vedanta's demerger to proceed, with majority value in Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, offering 20%+ upside but facing risks of...

Rahul Jain

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey

Vedanta sees strong revenue and EBITDA growth in FY25, driven by volume expansion in aluminium and zinc. Major capex projects and debt reduction...

Rahul Jain

Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger

Vedanta Ltd plans multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating core operations into standalone entities, aiming to eliminate conglomerate...

Nimish Maheshwari

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hindustan Zinc: Silver-Led Earnings Strength with Embedded Tail-Upside

​Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

Rahul Jain

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

​NCLAT allows Vedanta's demerger to proceed, with majority value in Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, offering 20%+ upside but facing risks of...

Rahul Jain

Vedanta’s Volume-Led Growth and Deleveraging Journey

​Vedanta sees strong revenue and EBITDA growth in FY25, driven by volume expansion in aluminium and zinc. Major capex projects and debt reduction...

Rahul Jain

Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger

​Vedanta Ltd plans multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating core operations into standalone entities, aiming to eliminate conglomerate...

Nimish Maheshwari

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

​2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Silver-led earnings and INR translation are boosting margins, with integrated cost base supporting valuation without leverage or volume expansion.

NCLAT allows Vedanta's demerger to proceed, with majority value in Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, offering 20%+ upside but facing risks of...

Vedanta sees strong revenue and EBITDA growth in FY25, driven by volume expansion in aluminium and zinc. Major capex projects and debt reduction...

Vedanta Ltd plans multi-segment demerger to unlock value by separating core operations into standalone entities, aiming to eliminate conglomerate...

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...