Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.</li>
<li>Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.</li>
<li>Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. </li>
</ul>


U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.
Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.
Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. 


Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

Partner at Exencial Research, Exencial Research

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Partner at Exencial Research

Exencial Research

<ul>
<li>
Record Rs47.8B investments in 2025-26, marking the highest project completions in a decade, driven by surging demand for aluminium products.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a>  dominates with Rs37.6B Hirakud project, accounting for 79% of 2025-26 investments, boosting flat-rolled product capacity by 170k tonnes/year.</li>
<li>
25 new projects announced in 2024-25, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> ’s Rs409.9B smelter, signalling robust growth in downstream and recycled aluminium sectors.</li>
</ul>



Record Rs47.8B investments in 2025-26, marking the highest project completions in a decade, driven by surging demand for aluminium products.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)  dominates with Rs37.6B Hirakud project, accounting for 79% of 2025-26 investments, boosting flat-rolled product capacity by 170k tonnes/year.

25 new projects announced in 2024-25, including Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) ’s Rs409.9B smelter, signalling robust growth in downstream and recycled aluminium sectors.


The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

<ul>
<li>Rio’s Entry: Rio Tinto plans a $5–7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&amp;M, targeting 1 Mtpa smelting and 2 Mtpa refining powered by renewables.</li>
<li>Why India: Aluminium demand is rising; India offers bauxite, coal, caustic, and strong domestic growth—ideal for scaling low-carbon aluminium production.</li>
<li>Risks &amp; Signals: Land issues remain a risk, but ArcelorMittal’s success shows improved project viability; Rio bets on aluminium’s green future and circular economy edge.</li>
</ul>


Rio’s Entry: Rio Tinto plans a $5–7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&amp;M, targeting 1 Mtpa smelting and 2 Mtpa refining powered by renewables.
Why India: Aluminium demand is rising; India offers bauxite, coal, caustic, and strong domestic growth—ideal for scaling low-carbon aluminium production.
Risks &amp; Signals: Land issues remain a risk, but ArcelorMittal’s success shows improved project viability; Rio bets on aluminium’s green future and circular economy edge.


Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The start of 2025 has been particularly turbulent for Indian equities as broader market sentiment soured due to elevated valuations, foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, and global macro uncertainty. </li>
<li>However, amid this volatility, one signal stood out: insider trading activity.</li>
<li>In this report, we deep-dive into insider buying and selling trends from January 1 to March 3, 2025, to uncover where company promoters and top executives are placing their bets</li>
</ul>


The start of 2025 has been particularly turbulent for Indian equities as broader market sentiment soured due to elevated valuations, foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, and global macro uncertainty. 
However, amid this volatility, one signal stood out: insider trading activity.
In this report, we deep-dive into insider buying and selling trends from January 1 to March 3, 2025, to uncover where company promoters and top executives are placing their bets


Insiders' Playbook: Who’s Buying and Selling Amid Market Turbulence?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>Two senior executives at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> , Reema Jain and Sameer Pande, resigned amid market challenges and leadership changes</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allianz-se-0516b9dc-34b1-4a5b-adff-c1c95188b4ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28601:1" rel="noopener">Allianz (AZSEY US)</a> plans a new insurance partnership with Jio Financial, following the end of its 24-year tie-up with Bajaj Group.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bain-capital-specialty-finan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28761:1" rel="noopener">Bain Capital Specialty Finan (BCSF US)</a> set to acquire 22% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/manappuram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12559:1" rel="noopener">Manappuram Finance (MGFL IN)</a> , with plans to increase stake to 42%.</li>
</ul>


Two senior executives at Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) , Reema Jain and Sameer Pande, resigned amid market challenges and leadership changes

Allianz (AZSEY US) plans a new insurance partnership with Jio Financial, following the end of its 24-year tie-up with Bajaj Group.

Bain Capital Specialty Finan (BCSF US) set to acquire 22% stake in Manappuram Finance (MGFL IN) , with plans to increase stake to 42%.


#123 India Insight: Hero MotoCorp Execs Resign, Allianz Partners Jio, Bain to Buy Manappuram Stake

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Rahul Jain

Insiders' Playbook: Who’s Buying and Selling Amid Market Turbulence?

Indian equities face turbulence in early 2025 due to various factors, but insider trading activity provides a signal amid the volatility.

Nimish Maheshwari

#123 India Insight: Hero MotoCorp Execs Resign, Allianz Partners Jio, Bain to Buy Manappuram Stake

Executives resign at Hero Motocorp, Allianz forms new partnership with Jio Financial, Bain Capital to acquire stake in Manappuram Finance.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India's Metal Landscape

​Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

​Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Rahul Jain

Insiders' Playbook: Who’s Buying and Selling Amid Market Turbulence?

​Indian equities face turbulence in early 2025 due to various factors, but insider trading activity provides a signal amid the volatility.

Nimish Maheshwari

#123 India Insight: Hero MotoCorp Execs Resign, Allianz Partners Jio, Bain to Buy Manappuram Stake

​Executives resign at Hero Motocorp, Allianz forms new partnership with Jio Financial, Bain Capital to acquire stake in Manappuram Finance.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Record investments in 2025-26 driven by demand for aluminium products, Hindalco Industries leads with Hirakud project, 25 new projects announced...

Rio Tinto plans $5-7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, leveraging local resources and renewables for low-carbon production.

Indian equities face turbulence in early 2025 due to various factors, but insider trading activity provides a signal amid the volatility.

Executives resign at Hero Motocorp, Allianz forms new partnership with Jio Financial, Bain Capital to acquire stake in Manappuram Finance.