Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

With the Q2/20 earnings season completed and Q3 season underway, the impact of COVID-19 on the credit profiles of issuers under our coverage is becoming more visible. Several companies have already achieved solid recoveries in Q3, as reflected by their results. However, new government-imposed lockdowns will have a substantial impact on the Q4 numbers.  We believe it is useful to analyse how COVID-19 has impacted companies at the height of the pandemic in Q2/20. As such, we provide an overview of the development of credit stats and liquidity, followed by brief round-ups of the developments and outlooks in the industries and various companies that we cover.

  With the Q2/20 earnings season completed and Q3 season underway, the impact of COVID-19 on the credit profiles of issuers under our coverage is becoming more visible. Several companies have already achieved solid recoveries in Q3, as reflected by their results. However, new government-imposed lockdowns will have a substantial impact on the Q4 numbers.    We believe it is useful to analyse how COVID-19 has impacted companies at the height of the pandemic in Q2/20. As such, we provide an overview of the development of credit stats and liquidity, followed by brief round-ups of the developments and outlooks in the industries and various companies that we cover. 

Europe HY – Q2/20 Results Review And Credit Metrics Amid COVID-19 - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

  The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry. 

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

We do not view the group's failure to take Vedanta Limited private as negatively as the rating agencies, since taking out the minority shareholders to avoid cash leakage would have required a material increase in net debt. As expected, Hindustan Zinc paid a large dividend, signalling support for the holdco. We think the group will speed up cash upstreaming, and view the risk of a debt restructuring in the next 12 months as low.  We move our recommendation back to “Speculative Buy” from “Hold” following the dividend from Hindustan Zinc, which indicates the company’s willingness to upstream cash to service the holdco’s debt. In our opinion, Vedanta made the right choice by enduring the cash leakage rather than risking another default or debt restructuring in the near term. The VEDLN curve is again trading at distressed levels following the failure of the de-listing. We continue to think the risk/reward ratio is favourable.

  We do not view the group's failure to take Vedanta Limited private as negatively as the rating agencies, since taking out the minority shareholders to avoid cash leakage would have required a material increase in net debt. As expected, Hindustan Zinc paid a large dividend, signalling support for the holdco. We think the group will speed up cash upstreaming, and view the risk of a debt restructuring in the next 12 months as low.    We move our recommendation back to “Speculative Buy” from “Hold” following the dividend from Hindustan Zinc, which indicates the company’s willingness to upstream cash to service the holdco’s debt. In our opinion, Vedanta made the right choice by enduring the cash leakage rather than risking another default or debt restructuring in the near term. The VEDLN curve is again trading at distressed levels following the failure of the de-listing. We continue to think the risk/reward ratio is favourable. 

Vedanta Resources - Event Flash - HZL USD 1.2 Bn Dividend - Lucror Analytics

United Kingdom

Vedanta Resources is a diversified natural resources conglomerate specializing in metals and mining. The company's primary products include zinc, lead, silver, oil and gas, iron ore, steel, aluminium, and power. Headquartered in London, United Kingdom, Vedanta Resources was founded in 1976.

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Vedanta Resources (VED LN)

Europe HY – Q2/20 Results Review And Credit Metrics Amid COVID-19 - Lucror Analytics

With the Q2/20 earnings season completed and Q3 season underway, the impact of COVID-19 on the credit profiles of issuers under our coverage is...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Europe HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for October 2020 includes high-conviction trade ideas drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with...

Lucror Analytics

Vedanta Resources - Event Flash - HZL USD 1.2 Bn Dividend - Lucror Analytics

We do not view the group's failure to take Vedanta Limited private as negatively as the rating agencies, since taking out the minority...

Lucror Analytics

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