Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the past 24 hours, there have been many news flow about numerous US airports that have been cyber attacked by suspects from Russia. </li>
<li>The increasing media attention on cyberattack threat could result in greater concerns about cybersecurity inducing higher global spending on software and other services that help to protect against cyber attacks. </li>
<li>Global cybersecurity stocks that could benefit from greater media attention on cyberattacks include Palo Alto Networks (PANW US)  Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US)  CloudFlare (NET US).  </li>
</ul>


In the past 24 hours, there have been many news flow about numerous US airports that have been cyber attacked by suspects from Russia. 
The increasing media attention on cyberattack threat could result in greater concerns about cybersecurity inducing higher global spending on software and other services that help to protect against cyber attacks. 
Global cybersecurity stocks that could benefit from greater media attention on cyberattacks include Palo Alto Networks (PANW US)  Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD US)  CloudFlare (NET US).  


Cyberattacks at Numerous US Airports by Suspects from Russia

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>As a forensic accountant doing equity research, I strive to publish differentiated insights that augment rather than replace the traditional research feed of institutional investors</li>
<li>Fraud risks, aggressive revenue recognition, balance sheet health, quality of earnings and accounting policy changes underpinned a significant majority of my research</li>
<li>In this Insight, I will do a breakdown of my performance in the past half a year including a recap, key statistics and top insight highlights</li>
</ul>


As a forensic accountant doing equity research, I strive to publish differentiated insights that augment rather than replace the traditional research feed of institutional investors
Fraud risks, aggressive revenue recognition, balance sheet health, quality of earnings and accounting policy changes underpinned a significant majority of my research
In this Insight, I will do a breakdown of my performance in the past half a year including a recap, key statistics and top insight highlights


2021 Year in Review - Forensic Accounting in Equity Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">
In this Smartkarma Original, we provide a detailed analysis of the cybersecurity disruptors in Asia and the major drivers of the cybersecurity market which are as follows:
<ul>
<li>The rise in malware &amp; cyber attacks globally</li>
<li>The fast pace of digitalization contributing to risk</li>
<li>The COVID-19 pandemic &amp; strong demand for cloud-based cyber security solutions</li>
</ul>
In this insight, we highlight 42 public and 20 private companies that are related to the cybersecurity market in five Asian countries including China, Japan, India, Korea, and Australia. The total market cap of these 42 public companies is US$347 billion. 
In addition, we discuss about the comments made about the potential global cyberattacks as explained by Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum. His idea is that a major global cyberattack could be worse than the COVID-19 crisis. 
If there is a world-wide cyberattack, there will be a greater pressure to immunize the global Internet with digital vaccines and antibodies to protect the society from cyberattacks and if this crisis is massive enough in terms of public health crisis, this could result in the use of emergency powers once again to justify the centralization of power and control. Of course, this is just a speculation and it is nearly impossible to know in advance if and when such a massive cyberattack will occur. 
</div>


In this Smartkarma Original, we provide a detailed analysis of the cybersecurity disruptors in Asia and the major drivers of the cybersecurity market which are as follows:

The rise in malware &amp; cyber attacks globally
The fast pace of digitalization contributing to risk
The COVID-19 pandemic &amp; strong demand for cloud-based cyber security solutions

In this insight, we highlight 42 public and 20 private companies that are related to the cybersecurity market in five Asian countries including China, Japan, India, Korea, and Australia. The total market cap of these 42 public companies is US$347 billion. 
In addition, we discuss about the comments made about the potential global cyberattacks as explained by Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum. His idea is that a major global cyberattack could be worse than the COVID-19 crisis. 
If there is a world-wide cyberattack, there will be a greater pressure to immunize the global Internet with digital vaccines and antibodies to protect the society from cyberattacks and if this crisis is massive enough in terms of public health crisis, this could result in the use of emergency powers once again to justify the centralization of power and control. Of course, this is just a speculation and it is nearly impossible to know in advance if and when such a massive cyberattack will occur. 


The Cybersecurity Disruptors in Asia & A Global Cyber Attack Worse than the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Venustech Group Inc A / Forensic Accounting

China's cybersecurity market growth is set to reaccelerate given increased digitisation of the economy, emphasis on data security, and increase in cybersecurity spending.  While pandemic disruptions had led to an inevitable slowdown in 2020, recent cybersecurity spending trends by corporates and government bodies suggest a cyclical rebound. 
In the First of this Three part SK Originals series, we discuss how China's Company Accounting Standard No. 14 - Revenue ("CAS No. 14")'s application and consequent changes in accounting policy could result in material changes to the revenue recognition policy of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/venustech-group-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2773:1" rel="noopener">Venustech Group Inc A (002439 CH)</a>, such as changing the timing of revenue recognition and the amount being recognised across the company's various revenue segments.  
Most Chinese software companies started adopting CAS No. 14 in 2020.  Broadly, the net impact of CAS No. 14 is that recognition of software product revenue shifts from from multiple milestones based on a percentage of delivery completion to the transfer of actual control of the software products to customers, subject to specific terms of contract and management judgement. 
We also discuss the materiality threshold used to identify the listed software companies that have made changes in lieu of CAS No. 14, the key implications, and what this all means for Venustech with reference to industry dynamics, relative valuation, and company fundamentals.
We are constructive on Venustech's prospects given its market leading position in software products, security operation centers and related services.  At forward P/E of 21.9x and market leading ROE and operating margin relative to peer average, we believe that Venustech is attractively valued.

China's cybersecurity market growth is set to reaccelerate given increased digitisation of the economy, emphasis on data security, and increase in cybersecurity spending.  While pandemic disruptions had led to an inevitable slowdown in 2020, recent cybersecurity spending trends by corporates and government bodies suggest a cyclical rebound. 
In the First of this Three part SK Originals series, we discuss how China's Company Accounting Standard No. 14 - Revenue ("CAS No. 14")'s application and consequent changes in accounting policy could result in material changes to the revenue recognition policy of Venustech Group Inc A (002439 CH), such as changing the timing of revenue recognition and the amount being recognised across the company's various revenue segments.  
Most Chinese software companies started adopting CAS No. 14 in 2020.  Broadly, the net impact of CAS No. 14 is that recognition of software product revenue shifts from from multiple milestones based on a percentage of delivery completion to the transfer of actual control of the software products to customers, subject to specific terms of contract and management judgement. 
We also discuss the materiality threshold used to identify the listed software companies that have made changes in lieu of CAS No. 14, the key implications, and what this all means for Venustech with reference to industry dynamics, relative valuation, and company fundamentals.
We are constructive on Venustech's prospects given its market leading position in software products, security operation centers and related services.  At forward P/E of 21.9x and market leading ROE and operating margin relative to peer average, we believe that Venustech is attractively valued. 

Accounting Standards Series - CAS No. 14 Impact on China Software Companies - Venustech (2439 CH)

China

Beijing Venustech Inc. provides a variety of information security products, information security services and information security solutions.  The Company's products and services are intrusion detection systems, intrusion prevention systems, firewalls, real-time monitoring and security management certification training services.

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Venustech Group Inc A (002439 CH)

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Cyberattacks at Numerous US Airports by Suspects from Russia

In the past 24 hours, there have been many news flow about numerous US airports that have been cyber attacked by suspects from Russia. This could...

Douglas Kim

2021 Year in Review - Forensic Accounting in Equity Research

As a forensic accountant doing equity research, I strive to publish differentiated insights that augment investment research. I look back at 2021's...

Jason Yap, CFA

The Cybersecurity Disruptors in Asia & A Global Cyber Attack Worse than the COVID-19 Pandemic?

In this Smartkarma Original, we provide a detailed analysis of the cybersecurity disruptors in Asia and the major drivers of the cybersecurity market.

Douglas Kim

Accounting Standards Series - CAS No. 14 Impact on China Software Companies - Venustech (2439 CH)

In this SK Originals series, we discuss how CAS No. 14 Standards could affect the revenue recognition policy of Venustech, such as changing the...

Jason Yap, CFA

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