Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.</li>
<li>Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.</li>
<li>I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.</li>
</ul>


This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place.
Let’s start with Automotive, which is my favorite idea set right now. The problem is that the near-term results were much weaker than I expected, and it looks like the bottom is maybe in.
I was expecting another quarter of scrapping along the bottom, and Industrial weakness punched a new low.


Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

<ul><li>This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.</li><li>Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.</li><li>Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.</li></ul>

This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Medium term: Delta remains well placed to capture the AI power upgrade cycle, with PSU leadership extending into DC/DC, BBU and HVDC power racks as 800VDC adoption scales through 2027-28e.</li>
<li>
 Short term: 2Q26 margin pressure was driven by supply constraints and input-cost inflation; 3Q/4Q should show price pass-through. Even if normalization slips into 1Q27, this is not a thesis breaker.</li>
<li>
 Valuation: Rolling FY2 P/E has corrected to ~28x from ~35-39x at the recent peak, while earnings remain strong. That creates a better entry point with original upside thesis intact.</li>
</ul>



 Medium term: Delta remains well placed to capture the AI power upgrade cycle, with PSU leadership extending into DC/DC, BBU and HVDC power racks as 800VDC adoption scales through 2027-28e.

 Short term: 2Q26 margin pressure was driven by supply constraints and input-cost inflation; 3Q/4Q should show price pass-through. Even if normalization slips into 1Q27, this is not a thesis breaker.

 Valuation: Rolling FY2 P/E has corrected to ~28x from ~35-39x at the recent peak, while earnings remain strong. That creates a better entry point with original upside thesis intact.


Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - Buy Into Short-Term Weakness - Architecture Confidence Increasing.

<ul>
<li>
Market position: Delta is a leading AI data-center PSU supplier, with estimated 50%+ share, giving it direct exposure as AI racks require more power per rack.</li>
<li>
Product cycle: PSU upgrades from 5.5kW to 12kW and 30-36kW drive higher ASP per watt, more power-shelf content and margin expansion.</li>
<li>
Valuation: Our base case is consensus PSU growth; the upside case where Delta captures DC/DC and 800VDC power-rack content content can lead to &lt;100% upside over near to medium term.</li>
</ul>



Market position: Delta is a leading AI data-center PSU supplier, with estimated 50%+ share, giving it direct exposure as AI racks require more power per rack.

Product cycle: PSU upgrades from 5.5kW to 12kW and 30-36kW drive higher ASP per watt, more power-shelf content and margin expansion.

Valuation: Our base case is consensus PSU growth; the upside case where Delta captures DC/DC and 800VDC power-rack content content can lead to &lt;100% upside over near to medium term.


Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - AI Power Architecture Upgrade

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Krn Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration / Equity Bottom-Up

Krn Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration (KRN IN)

<ul>
<li>KRN delivered FY26 consolidated revenue: Rs. 600 crore, up 40% YoY, EBITDAgrew nearly 60%. The new Plant II is now fully operational after months of parallel construction.</li>
<li>
Plant II is 6X the capacity of original facility. With ramp up to 80% in FY28 represents sharpest growth curve. Revenue runway stretches to Rs. 2,850 crore at full utilization</li>
<li>
Four catalysts FY27: Plant II, Bus AC scale-up, doubling exports and PLI plus RIPS incentives. This is the year KRN stops being small-cap story and starts becoming mid-cap compounder</li>
</ul>


KRN delivered FY26 consolidated revenue: Rs. 600 crore, up 40% YoY, EBITDAgrew nearly 60%. The new Plant II is now fully operational after months of parallel construction.

Plant II is 6X the capacity of original facility. With ramp up to 80% in FY28 represents sharpest growth curve. Revenue runway stretches to Rs. 2,850 crore at full utilization

Four catalysts FY27: Plant II, Bus AC scale-up, doubling exports and PLI plus RIPS incentives. This is the year KRN stops being small-cap story and starts becoming mid-cap compounder


KRN Heat Exchanger: The HVAC Play in India

United States

Vertiv Holdings Co operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides electrical power equipment, thermal management, racks and enclosures, monitoring and management, tools, and other services. Vertiv Holdings serves data centers, communication networks, commercial, and industrial environments worldwide.

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Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)

Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place. Let’s start with Automotive, which is my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings Week of April 26th

TXN, NOD, TER, INTC, MXL, ASM, STM, ON, KLA, LRCX, VRT, Aixtron, MXL. This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual....

Fabricated Knowledge

Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - Buy Into Short-Term Weakness - Architecture Confidence Increasing.

Delta remains well placed to capture the AI power upgrade cycle, with PSU leadership extending into DC/DC, BBU and HVDC power racks as 800VDC...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - AI Power Architecture Upgrade

Delta leads AI data-center PSUs with 50%+ share; Nvidia’s power-architecture upgrade drives PSU ASP/mix expansion, while 800VDC power racks create...

Raj S, CA, CFA

KRN Heat Exchanger: The HVAC Play in India

KRN's FY26 revenue up 40%, EBITDA grew 60%. New Plant II fully operational, 6X capacity of original facility. FY27 catalysts set stage for mid-cap...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Earnings: NXPI, CDNS, TXN, SLAB, Alphawave, TSEM, KLAC, SK Hynix, MXL, STM, ASMI, VRT, UCTT

This is going to be a big week, so I’ll be as brief as I can while getting everything in one place. Let’s start with Automotive, which is my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings Week of April 26th

TXN, NOD, TER, INTC, MXL, ASM, STM, ON, KLA, LRCX, VRT, Aixtron, MXL. This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual....

Fabricated Knowledge

Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - Buy Into Short-Term Weakness - Architecture Confidence Increasing.

Delta remains well placed to capture the AI power upgrade cycle, with PSU leadership extending into DC/DC, BBU and HVDC power racks as 800VDC...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Delta Electronics (2308 TT) - AI Power Architecture Upgrade

Delta leads AI data-center PSUs with 50%+ share; Nvidia’s power-architecture upgrade drives PSU ASP/mix expansion, while 800VDC power racks create...

Raj S, CA, CFA

KRN Heat Exchanger: The HVAC Play in India

​KRN's FY26 revenue up 40%, EBITDA grew 60%. New Plant II fully operational, 6X capacity of original facility. FY27 catalysts set stage for mid-cap...

Nimish Maheshwari

KRN's FY26 revenue up 40%, EBITDA grew 60%. New Plant II fully operational, 6X capacity of original facility. FY27 catalysts set stage for mid-cap...