Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bearish sentiment in Hong Kong declined during the carry trade sell off.</li>
<li>Low Volatility, High Dividend and Value factors have continue to be profitable strategies in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> all reported solid operating and financial news leading to BUY recommendations.
</li>
</ul>


Bearish sentiment in Hong Kong declined during the carry trade sell off.
Low Volatility, High Dividend and Value factors have continue to be profitable strategies in Hong Kong.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) , Techtronic Industries (669 HK) and Giant Biogene (2367 HK) all reported solid operating and financial news leading to BUY recommendations.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 12)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>1Q24 sales growth was slow but net profit should still be strong.</li><li>Thanks to the healthy sell-out growth and the less-than-one-month Amazon channel inventory, plus the upgrades in products (e.g., Turbo Blaze air fryer, Dual Zone air fryer, the pet-friendly air purifier and vacuum cleaner), orders growth should normalize in the coming quarters, in our view.</li><li>With an undemanding valuation of 7x FY24E P/E, we maintain BUY with a TP of HK$ 6.79, based on 11x P/E, well supported by 13%/16% sales/NP CAGRs during FY23-26E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1Q24 sales growth was slow but net profit should still be strong.Thanks to the healthy sell-out growth and the less-than-one-month Amazon channel inventory, plus the upgrades in products (e.g., Turbo Blaze air fryer, Dual Zone air fryer, the pet-friendly air purifier and vacuum cleaner), orders growth should normalize in the coming quarters, in our view.With an undemanding valuation of 7x FY24E P/E, we maintain BUY with a TP of HK$ 6.79, based on 11x P/E, well supported by 13%/16% sales/NP CAGRs during FY23-26E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vesync (2148 HK) - 1Q24 Was Slow but End-Demand Is Healthy

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>'s acquisition of Carrier commercial refrigeration business is earnings accretive. It will also be strategically positive to its growth outlook. </li>
<li>With net cash of Rmb17.3bn, HSH has no problem funding the deal internally. Instead of earning a single-digit return on cash, the business' 9% earnings yield is attractive. </li>
<li>The transaction will extend HSH's application scenarios from household to commercial while elevating its competitiveness in Europe and allowing it to capture the B-end customers. </li>
</ul>



Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)'s acquisition of Carrier commercial refrigeration business is earnings accretive. It will also be strategically positive to its growth outlook. 
With net cash of Rmb17.3bn, HSH has no problem funding the deal internally. Instead of earning a single-digit return on cash, the business' 9% earnings yield is attractive. 
The transaction will extend HSH's application scenarios from household to commercial while elevating its competitiveness in Europe and allowing it to capture the B-end customers. 


Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Further Expansion of Footprint

<ul>
<li>The weak share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> looks unjustified given its healthy 1H23 result and solid financial position with net cash equals 11% of share price. </li>
<li>We anticipate product advancement and innovation will allow HSH to gain more market share. Its high-end brand Casarte will sustain as an important driver for earnings performance.</li>
<li>Gross margin looks to have room to expand due to better cost dynamics with digitalisation and AI initiatives. Continued growth in developing overseas market is also positive. </li>
</ul>


The weak share price of Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) looks unjustified given its healthy 1H23 result and solid financial position with net cash equals 11% of share price. 
We anticipate product advancement and innovation will allow HSH to gain more market share. Its high-end brand Casarte will sustain as an important driver for earnings performance.
Gross margin looks to have room to expand due to better cost dynamics with digitalisation and AI initiatives. Continued growth in developing overseas market is also positive. 


Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Healthy Growth Despite Challenges

China

Vesync Co Ltd develops smart home platform that connect air quality, health monitoring, kitchen, lighting, and outlet systems.The Company helps users to manage home, save energy, and bring remote items within handheld reach.

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Vesync (2148 HK)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 12)

Hong Kong markets were resilient during the carry trade global sell off losing less than 2%. Pop Mart and Techtronic posted good results for 1H...

David Mudd

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Vesync (2148 HK) - 1Q24 Was Slow but End-Demand Is Healthy

With an undemanding valuation of 7x FY24E P/E, we maintain BUY with a TP of HK$ 6.79, based on 11x P/E, well supported by 13%/16% sales/NP CAGRs...

CMB International

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Further Expansion of Footprint

Haier Smart Home's acquisition of Carrier's commercial refrigeration business is financially beneficial and strategically advantageous, expanding...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Healthy Growth Despite Challenges

Weak share price seems unwarranted despite strong 1H23 results and solid financial position. Market share growth, high-end brand sustainability,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 12)

Hong Kong markets were resilient during the carry trade global sell off losing less than 2%. Pop Mart and Techtronic posted good results for 1H...

David Mudd

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

There could be nearly 80 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Vesync (2148 HK) - 1Q24 Was Slow but End-Demand Is Healthy

With an undemanding valuation of 7x FY24E P/E, we maintain BUY with a TP of HK$ 6.79, based on 11x P/E, well supported by 13%/16% sales/NP CAGRs...

CMB International

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Further Expansion of Footprint

​Haier Smart Home's acquisition of Carrier's commercial refrigeration business is financially beneficial and strategically advantageous, expanding...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Healthy Growth Despite Challenges

Weak share price seems unwarranted despite strong 1H23 results and solid financial position. Market share growth, high-end brand sustainability,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Haier Smart Home's acquisition of Carrier's commercial refrigeration business is financially beneficial and strategically advantageous, expanding...