HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>'s suspension may suggest privatisation by the Yang family (68.8% stake). With US$192m public float and US$216m net cash, out-of-pocket cash needed is limited. </li>
<li>1H24 is decent with a 37.5% earnings growth and 3.3pp margin expansion. The consensus forecast of 4.8% growth in 2H24 is conservative, providing a good opportunity for privatisation.</li>
<li>Benchmarking the take-out price to the 3-year average P/B will mean a 33% upside while the sector's average PER multiple implies ~70% higher than the pre-suspension price.</li>
</ul>



Vesync (2148 HK)'s suspension may suggest privatisation by the Yang family (68.8% stake). With US$192m public float and US$216m net cash, out-of-pocket cash needed is limited. 
1H24 is decent with a 37.5% earnings growth and 3.3pp margin expansion. The consensus forecast of 4.8% growth in 2H24 is conservative, providing a good opportunity for privatisation.
Benchmarking the take-out price to the 3-year average P/B will mean a 33% upside while the sector's average PER multiple implies ~70% higher than the pre-suspension price.


Vesync (2148 HK): A Potential Privatisation?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, a manufacturer of small home appliance, is currently <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1211/2024121100063.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> pursuant to the Takeovers Code. </li>
<li>FY23 was Vesync's best result since its December 2020 listing; and FY24E is on track to go one better.  Yet the share price is 24% adrift of the IPO price.</li>
<li>The Yang family, led by chairman/CEO, control ~69.26% of Vesync. An Offer price around the IPO price may be enough to take Vesync private.</li>
</ul>



Vesync (2148 HK), a manufacturer of small home appliance, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
FY23 was Vesync's best result since its December 2020 listing; and FY24E is on track to go one better.  Yet the share price is 24% adrift of the IPO price.
The Yang family, led by chairman/CEO, control ~69.26% of Vesync. An Offer price around the IPO price may be enough to take Vesync private.


Vesync (2148 HK): Expect The Yangs To Privatise

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a> is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” </li>
<li>The Yang family is likely seeking to privatise Vesync through a Cayman scheme. The shares are trading 24% below the HK$5.52 IPO price.</li>
<li>We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71, a 59.8% premium to last close.</li>
</ul>



Vesync (2148 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
The Yang family is likely seeking to privatise Vesync through a Cayman scheme. The shares are trading 24% below the HK$5.52 IPO price.
We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71, a 59.8% premium to last close.


Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

China

Vesync Co Ltd develops smart home platform that connect air quality, health monitoring, kitchen, lighting, and outlet systems.The Company helps users to manage home, save energy, and bring remote items within handheld reach.

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Vesync (2148 HK)

Vesync (2148 HK): A Potential Privatisation?

Vesync may be heading towards privatisation by the Yang family which owns a 68.8% stake. Using historical P/B average and sector PER average as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Vesync (2148 HK): Expect The Yangs To Privatise

FY23 was Vesync's best result since its Dec 2020 listing; and FY24E may go one better. Yet the share price is 24% adrift of the IPO price. An...

David Blennerhassett

Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71....

Arun George

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Vesync (2148 HK): A Potential Privatisation?

​Vesync may be heading towards privatisation by the Yang family which owns a 68.8% stake. Using historical P/B average and sector PER average as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Vesync (2148 HK): Expect The Yangs To Privatise

FY23 was Vesync's best result since its Dec 2020 listing; and FY24E may go one better. Yet the share price is 24% adrift of the IPO price. An...

David Blennerhassett

Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a price range of HK$5.09-10.30 per share, with an average of HK$6.71....

Arun George

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

Vesync may be heading towards privatisation by the Yang family which owns a 68.8% stake. Using historical P/B average and sector PER average as...

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...