Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> broke out to a new YTD high.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.

Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.


China Feihe (6186 HK) broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  Techtronic Industries (669 HK) broke out to a new YTD high.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a> is less exposed to China's real estate market than one would have thought. Despite poor property industry, HSH still generated 12.9% earnings growth in 3Q23.</li>
<li>We are delighted to see further margin pick-up in 2Q23-3Q23, thanks to digitalisation and better efficiency. We believe such a trend can be sustained over the next 12-18 months. </li>
<li>More innovative products will drive market share, and better margin can support a 13% 3-year earnings CAGR. ROE is high at 17-8% despite net cash (8.8% of share price).   </li>
</ul>



Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) is less exposed to China's real estate market than one would have thought. Despite poor property industry, HSH still generated 12.9% earnings growth in 3Q23.
We are delighted to see further margin pick-up in 2Q23-3Q23, thanks to digitalisation and better efficiency. We believe such a trend can be sustained over the next 12-18 months. 
More innovative products will drive market share, and better margin can support a 13% 3-year earnings CAGR. ROE is high at 17-8% despite net cash (8.8% of share price).   


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Oneconnect Financial Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)</a> disclosed a preconditional scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> at HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS).</li>
<li>Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest (net cash can fund 8 years of FCF burn).</li>
<li>Ping An has secured support from M&amp;G to lower vote risk. The key risk remains that an activist stealthily builds a blocking stake (below the 5% HKEx disclosure threshold).</li>
</ul>



Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK) disclosed a preconditional scheme offer from Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) at HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS).
Despite the hefty premium, the offer is opportunistic as it values OneConnect below net cash, and the FCF burn is modest (net cash can fund 8 years of FCF burn).
Ping An has secured support from M&amp;G to lower vote risk. The key risk remains that an activist stealthily builds a blocking stake (below the 5% HKEx disclosure threshold).


OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Preconditional Scheme Offer Is Below Net Cash

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>'s potential Offer.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For April 2025, 9 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn. Not including Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s potential Offer.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~46%, with a year-to-date average of 53%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

<ul>
<li>Negligible float, highly manipulatable, 150x+ forward earnings - yes, investors can afford NOT to have <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> in their portfolio.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> stamps its "recycling capital" motto and sells nine floors of One Exchange Square to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> for HK$6.3bn (US$810mn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>asks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minebea-mitsumi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5032:1" rel="noopener">Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)</a> whether they intend to change the consideration terms. Minebea says it is "proceeding with its consideration". </li>
</ul>


Negligible float, highly manipulatable, 150x+ forward earnings - yes, investors can afford NOT to have GMO Internet (4784 JP) in their portfolio.

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) stamps its "recycling capital" motto and sells nine floors of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK) for HK$6.3bn (US$810mn).

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)asks Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) whether they intend to change the consideration terms. Minebea says it is "proceeding with its consideration". 


Last Week in Event SPACE: GMO Internet, Hongkong Land, Shibaura Electronics, Millennium & Copthorne

China

Vesync Co Ltd develops smart home platform that connect air quality, health monitoring, kitchen, lighting, and outlet systems.The Company helps users to manage home, save energy, and bring remote items within handheld reach.

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Vesync (2148 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Stays Smart

Haier Smart Home is less exposed to real estate market than expected. Digitalisation and efficiency improvements are driving margin; and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Preconditional Scheme Offer Is Below Net Cash

The high takeover premium could suggest a fair offer. However, the offer is below net cash. The scheme should be blocked, but it is likely to go...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: GMO Internet, Hongkong Land, Shibaura Electronics, Millennium & Copthorne

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): Stays Smart

​Haier Smart Home is less exposed to real estate market than expected. Digitalisation and efficiency improvements are driving margin; and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Ping An’s Preconditional Scheme Offer Is Below Net Cash

The high takeover premium could suggest a fair offer. However, the offer is below net cash. The scheme should be blocked, but it is likely to go...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Apr 2025 Wrap: Toyota, Abacus Storage, Bright Smart, Fujitsu General, Topcon

For the month of April, 9 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: GMO Internet, Hongkong Land, Shibaura Electronics, Millennium & Copthorne

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Haier Smart Home is less exposed to real estate market than expected. Digitalisation and efficiency improvements are driving margin; and...