European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Victory Capital has withdrawn its bid, confirming our view that execution risk would cap its ability to convert headline value into a credible transaction.</li>
<li>Trian/General Catalyst has raised its offer to $52 per share, effectively clearing the path to completion and removing competitive tension.</li>
<li>With optionality now largely gone, JHG transitions from a volatility trade to a tight spread to a high-certainty outcome, with limited residual upside.</li>
</ul>


Victory Capital has withdrawn its bid, confirming our view that execution risk would cap its ability to convert headline value into a credible transaction.
Trian/General Catalyst has raised its offer to $52 per share, effectively clearing the path to completion and removing competitive tension.
With optionality now largely gone, JHG transitions from a volatility trade to a tight spread to a high-certainty outcome, with limited residual upside.


Janus Henderson: Victory Exits, Trian Locks In — Optionality Gone, Convergence Trade Remains

<ul>
<li>Victory’s revised bid offers ~16% headline premium to Trian, but requires ~85% free-float support and faces material client and employee attrition risks, making execution materially more challenging than valuation suggests.</li>
<li>Trian’s lower $49 all-cash offer provides higher certainty through committed financing, governance alignment and limited disruption, positioning it as the more deliverable outcome despite inferior headline economics versus Victory’s proposal.</li>
<li>With JHG trading above deal value, the market prices optionality from bidding tension; risk/reward appears balanced, with upside from a bump and downside driven by execution risk or deal break.</li>
</ul>


Victory’s revised bid offers ~16% headline premium to Trian, but requires ~85% free-float support and faces material client and employee attrition risks, making execution materially more challenging than valuation suggests.
Trian’s lower $49 all-cash offer provides higher certainty through committed financing, governance alignment and limited disruption, positioning it as the more deliverable outcome despite inferior headline economics versus Victory’s proposal.
With JHG trading above deal value, the market prices optionality from bidding tension; risk/reward appears balanced, with upside from a bump and downside driven by execution risk or deal break.


Janus Henderson: Higher Bid, Lower Certainty — Event-Driven Upside Hinges on Execution, Not Price

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

United States

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides private equity, assets management, and other related services. Victory Capital Holdings serves customers in the United States.

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Victory Capital Holdings Inc (VCTR US)

Janus Henderson: Victory Exits, Trian Locks In — Optionality Gone, Convergence Trade Remains

Victory exits and Trian raises, shifting JHG from a high-convexity bidding situation to a tight spread. With optionality gone, investors must...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Janus Henderson: Higher Bid, Lower Certainty — Event-Driven Upside Hinges on Execution, Not Price

Janus Henderson is a contested takeover with a higher but riskier Victory bid versus a lower, more certain Trian deal. The trade offers optionality...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

Emerging markets (EEM) appear to be bottoming; one attractive buy candidate is JD.com (JD). We also highlight buy opportunities within Energy...

Vermilion Research

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