Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB), formerly known as Vietnam JSCB for Private Enterprises, was established in 1993.</li><li>The Bank has its core business in mobilizing capital and crediting.</li><li>In addition, VPBank also engages in international banking services, trades foreign currencies, financial investment, risk management and capital protection. VPBank ha</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB), formerly known as Vietnam JSCB for Private Enterprises, was established in 1993.The Bank has its core business in mobilizing capital and crediting.In addition, VPBank also engages in international banking services, trades foreign currencies, financial investment, risk management and capital protection. VPBank haContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market) - May 2024

<ul><li>Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB), formerly known as Vietnam JSCB for Private Enterprises, was established in 1993.</li><li>The Bank has its core business in mobilizing capital and crediting.</li><li>In addition, VPBank also engages in international banking services, trades foreign currencies, financial investment, risk management and capital protection. </li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB), formerly known as Vietnam JSCB for Private Enterprises, was established in 1993.The Bank has its core business in mobilizing capital and crediting.In addition, VPBank also engages in international banking services, trades foreign currencies, financial investment, risk management and capital protection. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market) - April 2024

<ul><li>Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB), formerly known as Vietnam JSCB for Private Enterprises, was established in 1993.</li><li>The Bank has its core business in mobilizing capital and crediting. In addition, VPBank also engages in international banking services, trades foreign currencies, financial investment, risk management and capital protection.</li><li>VPBank has been listed and traded on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) since August 2017.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB), formerly known as Vietnam JSCB for Private Enterprises, was established in 1993.The Bank has its core business in mobilizing capital and crediting. In addition, VPBank also engages in international banking services, trades foreign currencies, financial investment, risk management and capital protection.VPBank has been listed and traded on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) since August 2017.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market)_March 2024

<ul><li>By the end of 3Q23, BID, Vietnam's largest commercial bank, showed a moderate growth in total asset to VND2,132tr (US$87bn, +0.58% YTD).</li><li>Compared to end-1H23, loan quality remained stable with a 1.6% NPL ratio, a lower gross NPL ratio of 3.5% (1H23: 3.8%), and an increase in the loan loss reserve (LLR) ratio to 158.4% (1H23: 151.5%).</li><li>3Q23 PBT contracted by 11.7% YoY, slowing the 9M23 PBT growth to 11.3% YoY (1H23: +25.1% YoY). </li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

By the end of 3Q23, BID, Vietnam's largest commercial bank, showed a moderate growth in total asset to VND2,132tr (US$87bn, +0.58% YTD).Compared to end-1H23, loan quality remained stable with a 1.6% NPL ratio, a lower gross NPL ratio of 3.5% (1H23: 3.8%), and an increase in the loan loss reserve (LLR) ratio to 158.4% (1H23: 151.5%).3Q23 PBT contracted by 11.7% YoY, slowing the 9M23 PBT growth to 11.3% YoY (1H23: +25.1% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vietnam

Vinamilk, formally Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company, is Vietnam's largest dairy company, specializing in the production and distribution of a wide range of dairy products including liquid milk, powdered milk, condensed milk, yogurt, ice cream, and infant cereal. The company also offers soy drinks, fruit juices, and tea. Vinamilk's headquarters are in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and it was established in 1976.

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Vinamilk (VNM VN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market) - May 2024

Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB), formerly known as Vietnam JSCB for Private Enterprises, was established in 1993. The Bank has its core business in...

Mirae Asset Securities

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market) - April 2024

Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB), formerly known as Vietnam JSCB for Private Enterprises, was established in 1993. The Bank has its core business in...

Mirae Asset Securities

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market)_March 2024

The Bank has its core business in mobilizing capital and crediting. In addition, VPBank also engages in international banking services, trades...

Mirae Asset Securities

Vietnam Market - Stock Recommendations

By the end of 3Q23, BID, Vietnam's largest commercial bank, showed a moderate growth in total asset to VND2,132tr (US$87bn, +0.58% YTD).

Mirae Asset Securities

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