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Equity Bottom-Up

Vietnam Dairy Products JSC / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>As Vietnam's largest dairy company, Vinamilk is showing signs of a turnaround after a period of stagnation. Recent quarterly results indicate a recovery driven by the stabilization of its domestic general trade channel and robust performance in export markets.</li>
 <li>The company's strategic focus on digital transformation and international expansion, particularly in key Asian and African markets, is expected to drive a rebound in earnings growth in the coming fiscal year.</li>
 <li>Despite facing challenges from rising raw material costs and intense domestic competition, the stock appears undervalued, trading at a significant discount to historical multiples. A potential upgrade of the Vietnamese market could serve as a major re-rating catalyst.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  As Vietnam's largest dairy company, Vinamilk is showing signs of a turnaround after a period of stagnation. Recent quarterly results indicate a recovery driven by the stabilization of its domestic general trade channel and robust performance in export markets.
  The company's strategic focus on digital transformation and international expansion, particularly in key Asian and African markets, is expected to drive a rebound in earnings growth in the coming fiscal year.
  Despite facing challenges from rising raw material costs and intense domestic competition, the stock appears undervalued, trading at a significant discount to historical multiples. A potential upgrade of the Vietnamese market could serve as a major re-rating catalyst.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN) - Nov 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Rong Viet Securities

Rong Viet Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>VNM’s Q2-2025 results exhibited a robust QoQ recovery, with net revenue reaching VND 16,725 bn (+29.3% QoQ, flat YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 12,475 bn (+57.8% QoQ, -7.3% YoY).</li><li>This was supported by the stabilization of the GT distribution channel following temporary disruptions in Q1 due to restructuring, alongside the favorable seasonal peak in the dairy industry during Q2-3.</li><li>However, the net margin remained subdued at 14.8% (-124bps YoY), pressured by rising raw milk powder prices (reaching a two-year high) and increased sales discount expenses.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

VNM’s Q2-2025 results exhibited a robust QoQ recovery, with net revenue reaching VND 16,725 bn (+29.3% QoQ, flat YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 12,475 bn (+57.8% QoQ, -7.3% YoY).This was supported by the stabilization of the GT distribution channel following temporary disruptions in Q1 due to restructuring, alongside the favorable seasonal peak in the dairy industry during Q2-3.However, the net margin remained subdued at 14.8% (-124bps YoY), pressured by rising raw milk powder prices (reaching a two-year high) and increased sales discount expenses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

VIETNAM DAIRY PRODUCTS JSC (VNM) - Progressively Stabilizing with The "New GT Framework"

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

Leading full-service brokerage firm in Vietnam. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>For valuation of Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC (VNM), we used the discounted free cashflow to the firm (FCFF) method, with some key assumptions: 1) a required rate of return of 11%; and 2) a terminal growth rate after 2035 of 3%.</li><li>Thus, we maintain our target price at VND79,100 (dividend adjustment) with Buy rating.</li><li>At the input side, in the latest (early September) global dairy auction, prices for dairy products decreased significantly after being maintained at solid price levels in 8M25, as supply outpaced demand.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

For valuation of Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC (VNM), we used the discounted free cashflow to the firm (FCFF) method, with some key assumptions: 1) a required rate of return of 11%; and 2) a terminal growth rate after 2035 of 3%.Thus, we maintain our target price at VND79,100 (dividend adjustment) with Buy rating.At the input side, in the latest (early September) global dairy auction, prices for dairy products decreased significantly after being maintained at solid price levels in 8M25, as supply outpaced demand.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC - Record Quarterly Revenue

<ul><li>VNM’s Q1-2025 earnings were below our expectations, with net sales at VND 12,935 bn (-8.3% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 1,569 bn (-28.5% YoY).</li><li>The shortfall was driven by a sharp drop in domestic sales caused bythe short-term impact of GT channel restructuring, and margin compression.</li><li>Whole milk powder prices surged to a twoyear high while sales discount expenses remained unchanged despite the revenue decline.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

VNM’s Q1-2025 earnings were below our expectations, with net sales at VND 12,935 bn (-8.3% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 1,569 bn (-28.5% YoY).The shortfall was driven by a sharp drop in domestic sales caused bythe short-term impact of GT channel restructuring, and margin compression.Whole milk powder prices surged to a twoyear high while sales discount expenses remained unchanged despite the revenue decline.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

VNM - Looking to The "New GT Shirt" To Help Regain Market Share

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> took 84.89%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic (JS SP)</a> private by way of an Amalgamation. As Matheson was permitted to vote, the outcome was assured. </li>
<li>Less clear are "fair value" appraisal rights afforded Strategic's dissentient shareholders, the outcome of which navigates the Bermuda/UK courts. To date, dissenters have mostly had their way.</li>
<li>Which may have precipitated Matheson opting for a (full value) Scheme for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>, in which appraisal rights are not afforded.</li>
</ul>


Back in 2021, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) took 84.89%-held Jardine Strategic (JS SP) private by way of an Amalgamation. As Matheson was permitted to vote, the outcome was assured. 
Less clear are "fair value" appraisal rights afforded Strategic's dissentient shareholders, the outcome of which navigates the Bermuda/UK courts. To date, dissenters have mostly had their way.
Which may have precipitated Matheson opting for a (full value) Scheme for Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), in which appraisal rights are not afforded.


Matheson's Motive For Avoiding MAND's Dissentient Shareholders

Vietnam

Vietnam Dairy Products JSC produces dairy foods. The Company produces milk, condensed milk, milk powder, yoghurt, ice cream and cheese. Vietnam Dairy Products also produces cookies, coffee and tea and bottled water.

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Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN)

Primer: Vietnam Dairy Products JSC (VNM VN) - Nov 2025

As Vietnam's largest dairy company, Vinamilk is showing signs of a turnaround after a period of stagnation. Recent quarterly results indicate a...

αSK

VIETNAM DAIRY PRODUCTS JSC (VNM) - Progressively Stabilizing with The "New GT Framework"

VNM’s Q2-2025 results exhibited a robust QoQ recovery, with net revenue reaching VND 16,725 bn (+29.3% QoQ, flat YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 12,475 bn...

Rong Viet Securities

Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC - Record Quarterly Revenue

For valuation of Viet Nam Dairy Products JSC (VNM), we used the discounted free cashflow to the firm (FCFF) method, with some key assumptions: 1) a...

Mirae Asset Securities

Matheson's Motive For Avoiding MAND's Dissentient Shareholders

I see MAND trading at 2.1%/6.9% gross/annualised - assuming late Feb 2026 payment. That's not exciting. I prefer Matheson here.

David Blennerhassett

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