Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 / Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 (JNA COMDTY)

<ul>
<li>ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.</li>
<li>SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.</li>
<li>Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.</li>
</ul>


ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.
SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.
Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.


Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.</li>
<li>Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.</li>
<li>Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.</li>
</ul>


ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.
Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.
Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.


El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives

<ul><li>VCB recorded relatively balanced growth in 1Q26, with total assets and credit increasing by 4.5% and 4.7% YTD, respectively, reaching VND2,551tr and VND1,727tr.</li><li>This was a solid performance, both compared with the bank’s recent growth pace and the broader system trend.</li><li>The stronger loan growth was mainly supported by VCB’s relatively attractive lending rates. </li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

VCB recorded relatively balanced growth in 1Q26, with total assets and credit increasing by 4.5% and 4.7% YTD, respectively, reaching VND2,551tr and VND1,727tr.This was a solid performance, both compared with the bank’s recent growth pace and the broader system trend.The stronger loan growth was mainly supported by VCB’s relatively attractive lending rates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market) May 2026

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

We specialize in consulting both individual and institutional clients, providing them with effective financial solutions that are tailored to their specific needs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We lower our target price for GVR by 2% to VND30,500 per share, but upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM followingthe stock falling12% over the past six months.</li><li>Our lower TP mainly reflects a reduced IP segment valuation after cutting our projected 2025– 2045F IP land sales by 21%, partly offset by (1) rolling the valuation horizon to end-2026 from mid-2026 and (2) a higher rubber segment valuation.</li><li>We raise our 2025/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 36%/28%, driven by (1) stronger 2025F rubber earnings on higher ASP (with 2026F broadly flat YoY), and (2) higher net other income from greater tree liquidation income in 2025F and higher compensation income in 2026F.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We lower our target price for GVR by 2% to VND30,500 per share, but upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM followingthe stock falling12% over the past six months.Our lower TP mainly reflects a reduced IP segment valuation after cutting our projected 2025– 2045F IP land sales by 21%, partly offset by (1) rolling the valuation horizon to end-2026 from mid-2026 and (2) a higher rubber segment valuation.We raise our 2025/26F NPAT-MI forecasts by 36%/28%, driven by (1) stronger 2025F rubber earnings on higher ASP (with 2026F broadly flat YoY), and (2) higher net other income from greater tree liquidation income in 2025F and higher compensation income in 2026F.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GVR [OUTPERFORM +17.9%] - Rubber Land Conversion to Accelerate in 2026F - Update

<ul><li>Credit growth in 2025 reached ~15.3%, broadly in line with our forecast.</li><li>For 2026, we revise our credit growth assumption down to slightly above 13.5% YoY (–0.3%p vs. the previous forecast), reflecting a more cautious stance amid tighter capital headroom (lower CAR) and an elevated LDR in FY25.</li><li>Following these revisions: (1) NII is projected to grow 17.3% YoY (+2.1% vs. prior forecast), driven by a 9bps NIM expansion (+3bps vs. previous estimate), supported by solid mortgage growth (FY25: +20.2% YoY) and continued expansion in personal lending (FY25/26F: +17.3%/+14.3% YoY); (2) non-interest income is revised down by 8.5% vs. the prior forecast but still expected to grow 10.7% YoY; (3) other operating income is adjusted up by 19.4% vs. the previous projection, reflecting a stronger-than-expected recovery and sizable write-offs in 2025 (+36% YoY), which improve the earnings base; and (4) provisioning expenses are revised up materially (+57% vs. prior forecast), as additional provisions may be required for HTM securities, particularly corporate bonds. </li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Credit growth in 2025 reached ~15.3%, broadly in line with our forecast.For 2026, we revise our credit growth assumption down to slightly above 13.5% YoY (–0.3%p vs. the previous forecast), reflecting a more cautious stance amid tighter capital headroom (lower CAR) and an elevated LDR in FY25.Following these revisions: (1) NII is projected to grow 17.3% YoY (+2.1% vs. prior forecast), driven by a 9bps NIM expansion (+3bps vs. previous estimate), supported by solid mortgage growth (FY25: +20.2% YoY) and continued expansion in personal lending (FY25/26F: +17.3%/+14.3% YoY); (2) non-interest income is revised down by 8.5% vs. the prior forecast but still expected to grow 10.7% YoY; (3) other operating income is adjusted up by 19.4% vs. the previous projection, reflecting a stronger-than-expected recovery and sizable write-offs in 2025 (+36% YoY), which improve the earnings base; and (4) provisioning expenses are revised up materially (+57% vs. prior forecast), as additional provisions may be required for HTM securities, particularly corporate bonds. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Stock recommendations (Vietnam Market)_April 2026

Vietnam

Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG) is a leading Vietnamese economic group primarily engaged in the cultivation, processing, and trading of natural rubber and rubber products. The company also operates in wood processing, industrial park infrastructure investment, high-tech agriculture, and clean and renewable energy. VRG was established in 1975 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

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Vietnam Rubber Group (GVR VN)

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

Weather risk alone is not investable; palm oil and rubber matter because ASEAN supply buffers are thinner and transmission can show up in...

Duncan Chan

Stock Recommendations (Vietnam Market) May 2026

VCB recorded relatively balanced growth in 1Q26, with total assets and credit increasing by 4.5% and 4.7% YTD, respectively, reaching VND2,551tr...

Mirae Asset Securities

GVR [OUTPERFORM +17.9%] - Rubber Land Conversion to Accelerate in 2026F - Update

We lower our target price for GVR by 2% to VND30,500 per share, but upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM followingthe stock...

Vietcap

Stock recommendations (Vietnam Market)_April 2026

For 2026, we revise our credit growth assumption down to slightly above 13.5% YoY (–0.3%p vs. the previous forecast), reflecting a more cautious...

Mirae Asset Securities

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