Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS (SATS SP)</a> is almost back to 2020 Covid lows after announcing the WFS acquisition.</li>
<li>Buying from PE firms is always problematic as they have already skinned the proverbial cat, in the case of WFS, it has been passed around many times since 2006.</li>
<li>At a time of rising interest rates, SATS is assuming a large pile of debt and will need to dilute shareholders significantly. Would this deal have happened under Alex?</li>
</ul>



SATS (SATS SP) is almost back to 2020 Covid lows after announcing the WFS acquisition.
Buying from PE firms is always problematic as they have already skinned the proverbial cat, in the case of WFS, it has been passed around many times since 2006.
At a time of rising interest rates, SATS is assuming a large pile of debt and will need to dilute shareholders significantly. Would this deal have happened under Alex?


SATS: If Three Different P/E Firms Can't Create Value for 8 Years, Can SATS?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>IFM Investors is seeking to amass a 15% interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> through a combination of total return swaps and physical shares, <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/atlas-arteria-in-departures-lounge-as-ifm-investors-makes-big-move-20220607-p5arso" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to AFR</a>.</li>
<li>If successful in securing its stake, IFM intends to request due diligence access to judge if it can lob a privatisation proposal. </li>
<li>Jarden, IFM’s broker, was buying shares at A$8.10 a share, a 14% premium to the last close but below the Australian takeover premium range of 20% to 40%.</li>
</ul>


IFM Investors is seeking to amass a 15% interest in Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) through a combination of total return swaps and physical shares, according to AFR.
If successful in securing its stake, IFM intends to request due diligence access to judge if it can lob a privatisation proposal. 
Jarden, IFM’s broker, was buying shares at A$8.10 a share, a 14% premium to the last close but below the Australian takeover premium range of 20% to 40%.


Atlas Arteria in the Crosshairs of IFM Investors

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>GIP/Brookfield/ACS weigh launching a €15 billion unsolicited offer for Atlantia. Blackstone may partner with the Benettons to acquire Atlantia at €24/share (26% premium ). Italian Government's role will be key.</li>
<li>Atlantia trades at higher multiples than ACS (EV/22e EBITDA: 12.8x vs 3.2x, Capital IQ consensus). A hypothetical ACS/Abertis would become a world leader in infrastructure, but leverage is key. </li>
<li>The opposition of Edizione makes the operation difficult/more expensive. A joint-bid Edizione/Blackstone, would force the GIP-led group to present an improved offer. Nearly 50% of Atlantia's NAV is cash.</li>
</ul>


GIP/Brookfield/ACS weigh launching a €15 billion unsolicited offer for Atlantia. Blackstone may partner with the Benettons to acquire Atlantia at €24/share (26% premium ). Italian Government's role will be key.
Atlantia trades at higher multiples than ACS (EV/22e EBITDA: 12.8x vs 3.2x, Capital IQ consensus). A hypothetical ACS/Abertis would become a world leader in infrastructure, but leverage is key. 
The opposition of Edizione makes the operation difficult/more expensive. A joint-bid Edizione/Blackstone, would force the GIP-led group to present an improved offer. Nearly 50% of Atlantia's NAV is cash.


<ul>
<li>Hochtief offers A$22/share in cash, a 33% premium to the closing share price on the prior day, and the offer is final. The offer is a relatively low amount.</li>
<li>The deal should complete. The <strong>premium is generous</strong>, as the 15.4x P/22e E paid is high given that Hochtief and ACS are trading at 9.9x and 11.3x, respectively.</li>
<li>ACS trades at 27% discount to NAV. Holding structure rationalization and c. €5 billion received should be a catalyst for discount tightening. <strong>Long 1 ACS SM/short 0.4162 HOT GR</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Hochtief offers A$22/share in cash, a 33% premium to the closing share price on the prior day, and the offer is final. The offer is a relatively low amount.
The deal should complete. The premium is generous, as the 15.4x P/22e E paid is high given that Hochtief and ACS are trading at 9.9x and 11.3x, respectively.
ACS trades at 27% discount to NAV. Holding structure rationalization and c. €5 billion received should be a catalyst for discount tightening. Long 1 ACS SM/short 0.4162 HOT GR.


ACS/Hochtief/CIMIC: Rationalization of Holding Structure

France

VINCI SA is a global player in concessions and construction with expertise in building, civil, hydraulic, and electrical engineering. The Company offers construction-related specialities and road materials production, as well as finance, management, operations and maintenance of public infrastructure such as motorways, airports, and road and rail infrastructures.

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Vinci SA (DG FP)

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

SATS: If Three Different P/E Firms Can't Create Value for 8 Years, Can SATS?

SATS is buying WFS and attempting to do what no PE firm could do for the last 8 years: create value at WFS. Can SATS be different?

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Atlas Arteria in the Crosshairs of IFM Investors

IFM Investors is seeking to amass a 15% interest in Atlas which could lead to a privatisation proposal. IFM's buying at A$8.10 sets a floor price...

Arun George

Atlantia in Play?

The GIP/Brookfield/ACS deal seems a priori difficult, due to the size of Atlantia (for ACS) but above all because of the possibility that the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ACS/Hochtief/CIMIC: Rationalization of Holding Structure

The offer is well timed, as CIMIC shares had been trading at seven-year lows prior to the offer. Gross spread is nearly inexistent, but worth...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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