Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> is in severe financial distress, with negative gross margins (-57.4%), a $4.3B liquidity crisis, and total dependence on its parent for funding.</li>
<li>The company has significant operational risks, including reliance on related-party sales for 27.6% of deliveries and material weaknesses in its internal financial controls.</li>
<li>Despite its instability, VinFast is pursuing a high-risk, debt-funded $2 billion expansion into India, launching two SUVs and inaugurating a new manufacturing facility.</li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US) is in severe financial distress, with negative gross margins (-57.4%), a $4.3B liquidity crisis, and total dependence on its parent for funding.
The company has significant operational risks, including reliance on related-party sales for 27.6% of deliveries and material weaknesses in its internal financial controls.
Despite its instability, VinFast is pursuing a high-risk, debt-funded $2 billion expansion into India, launching two SUVs and inaugurating a new manufacturing facility.


Vinfast (VFS US) | The Day that Never Comes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. </li>
<li>Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.</li>
<li>VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  </li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. 
Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.
VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  


2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a>, a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade. </li>
<li>The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. </li>
<li>VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  </li>
</ul>



VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade. 
The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. 
VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> continues to progress in building out its EV brand, being the number one auto brand in Vietnam, and expanding into Indonesia, the Philippines, India, and the US.</li>
<li>A key trend for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> has been the shift in sales to related GSM towards direct retail sales, which now make up around 80% of total EV sales.</li>
<li>Its strategies to showcase EVs through ride-hailing, leasing batteries, providing captive charging infrastructure, and guaranteed resale values are proving to be successful one, being rolled out across markets. </li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US) continues to progress in building out its EV brand, being the number one auto brand in Vietnam, and expanding into Indonesia, the Philippines, India, and the US.
A key trend for Vinfast (VFS US) has been the shift in sales to related GSM towards direct retail sales, which now make up around 80% of total EV sales.
Its strategies to showcase EVs through ride-hailing, leasing batteries, providing captive charging infrastructure, and guaranteed resale values are proving to be successful one, being rolled out across markets. 


Vinfast (VFS US) - Direct-To-Consumer Taking Over

Market Vectors Vietnam ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this Postcard Edition, we detour and go international—to the streets, shops, and supermarkets of Vietnam. Choosing Vietnam as a country to explore and begin building our Asian Coverage.</li>
<li>Despite strong manufacturing fundamentals, capital markets remain narrow, with limited institutional participation and underrepresentation of export-led sectors.</li>
<li>Vietnam is on our watchlist for its evolving opportunity set, and we will continue tracking IPO activity, MSCI inclusion efforts, and policy reforms.</li>
</ul>


In this Postcard Edition, we detour and go international—to the streets, shops, and supermarkets of Vietnam. Choosing Vietnam as a country to explore and begin building our Asian Coverage.
Despite strong manufacturing fundamentals, capital markets remain narrow, with limited institutional participation and underrepresentation of export-led sectors.
Vietnam is on our watchlist for its evolving opportunity set, and we will continue tracking IPO activity, MSCI inclusion efforts, and policy reforms.


Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

Vietnam

Vinfast Auto Ltd. operates electric vehicle intelligent platform. The Company offers full-scale mobility platform focused primarily on designing and manufacturing premium EVs, electric scooter, and electric buses. Vinfast Auto serves customers worldwide.

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Vinfast (VFS US)

Vinfast (VFS US) | The Day that Never Comes

Vinfast (VFS US) faces severe financial distress, negative gross margins, a liquidity crisis, and operational risks, yet is pursuing a high-risk...

Pranav Bhavsar

2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

VinFast: Inexplicable Valuation

VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to...

Arun George

Vinfast (VFS US) - Direct-To-Consumer Taking Over

Vinfast's strategies to showcase EVs through ride-hailing, leasing batteries, captive charging infrastructure, and guaranteed resale values are...

Angus Mackintosh

Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

Exploring Vietnam's potential for growth and investment opportunities, despite challenges in capital markets and institutional participation....

Pranav Bhavsar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vinfast (VFS US) | The Day that Never Comes

​Vinfast (VFS US) faces severe financial distress, negative gross margins, a liquidity crisis, and operational risks, yet is pursuing a high-risk...

Pranav Bhavsar

2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

VinFast: Inexplicable Valuation

VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to...

Arun George

Vinfast (VFS US) - Direct-To-Consumer Taking Over

Vinfast's strategies to showcase EVs through ride-hailing, leasing batteries, captive charging infrastructure, and guaranteed resale values are...

Angus Mackintosh

Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

​Exploring Vietnam's potential for growth and investment opportunities, despite challenges in capital markets and institutional participation....

Pranav Bhavsar

Vinfast (VFS US) faces severe financial distress, negative gross margins, a liquidity crisis, and operational risks, yet is pursuing a high-risk...

Exploring Vietnam's potential for growth and investment opportunities, despite challenges in capital markets and institutional participation....