Credit Risk Specialist, Criat

Yanqi Zhu

Credit Risk Specialist

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Vietnamese government is in the midst of a campaign to eradicate corruption in its domestic real estate industry, which has seen bribery and embezzlement amounting to close to 3% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).</li>
<li>Despite the high-profile corruption cases that have brought the sector’s financing channels to a standstill, the aggregate credit risk profile of the Vietnamese real estate industry has largely improved in recent months, after deteriorating, on the back of widespread monetary policy support from the Vietnamese government.</li>
<li>The troubled sector saw a spike in its Criat credit cycle index (CCCI) since the middle of last year when deleveraging efforts for the industry by the Vietnamese government were first announced.</li>
</ul>


The Vietnamese government is in the midst of a campaign to eradicate corruption in its domestic real estate industry, which has seen bribery and embezzlement amounting to close to 3% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Despite the high-profile corruption cases that have brought the sector’s financing channels to a standstill, the aggregate credit risk profile of the Vietnamese real estate industry has largely improved in recent months, after deteriorating, on the back of widespread monetary policy support from the Vietnamese government.
The troubled sector saw a spike in its Criat credit cycle index (CCCI) since the middle of last year when deleveraging efforts for the industry by the Vietnamese government were first announced.


Fragile Vietnamese Real Estate Sector Faces Long Road to Recovery

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. </li>
<li>Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.</li>
<li>VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  </li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. 
Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.
VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  


2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a>, a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade. </li>
<li>The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. </li>
<li>VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  </li>
</ul>



VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade. 
The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. 
VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  


Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> is in severe financial distress, with negative gross margins (-57.4%), a $4.3B liquidity crisis, and total dependence on its parent for funding.</li>
<li>The company has significant operational risks, including reliance on related-party sales for 27.6% of deliveries and material weaknesses in its internal financial controls.</li>
<li>Despite its instability, VinFast is pursuing a high-risk, debt-funded $2 billion expansion into India, launching two SUVs and inaugurating a new manufacturing facility.</li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US) is in severe financial distress, with negative gross margins (-57.4%), a $4.3B liquidity crisis, and total dependence on its parent for funding.
The company has significant operational risks, including reliance on related-party sales for 27.6% of deliveries and material weaknesses in its internal financial controls.
Despite its instability, VinFast is pursuing a high-risk, debt-funded $2 billion expansion into India, launching two SUVs and inaugurating a new manufacturing facility.


Vinfast (VFS US) | The Day that Never Comes

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank (NAB VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.1% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$26m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
<li>Vietnam is on the watchlist of a global index provider for possible reclassification from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market and that could lead to inflows to the stocks.</li>
</ul>


Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank (NAB VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 21 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.1% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$26m. There are 3 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.
Vietnam is on the watchlist of a global index provider for possible reclassification from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market and that could lead to inflows to the stocks.


MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes

Vietnam

Vingroup Joint Stock Company operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops apartments, malls, hotels and resorts, health care, educational, convention center, amusement parks, and entertainment properties. Vingroup serves customers worldwide.

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Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)

Fragile Vietnamese Real Estate Sector Faces Long Road to Recovery

The Vietnamese government is in the midst of a campaign to eradicate corruption in its domestic real estate industry, which has seen bribery and...

Criat

2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

VinFast: Inexplicable Valuation

VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to...

Arun George

Vinfast (VFS US) | The Day that Never Comes

Vinfast (VFS US) faces severe financial distress, negative gross margins, a liquidity crisis, and operational risks, yet is pursuing a high-risk...

Pranav Bhavsar

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes

Nam A Commercial JSB is an add and there are capping and float changes. Vietnam could move from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market in a global...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fragile Vietnamese Real Estate Sector Faces Long Road to Recovery

The Vietnamese government is in the midst of a campaign to eradicate corruption in its domestic real estate industry, which has seen bribery and...

Criat

2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

VinFast: Inexplicable Valuation

VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to...

Arun George

Vinfast (VFS US) | The Day that Never Comes

​Vinfast (VFS US) faces severe financial distress, negative gross margins, a liquidity crisis, and operational risks, yet is pursuing a high-risk...

Pranav Bhavsar

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes

Nam A Commercial JSB is an add and there are capping and float changes. Vietnam could move from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market in a global...

Brian Freitas

Vinfast (VFS US) faces severe financial distress, negative gross margins, a liquidity crisis, and operational risks, yet is pursuing a high-risk...